Orange evening interpretation 6.25 Although the two sides dropped another wave of bombs at each other last night, the financial market will not deceive, the US stock market and the currency market have completely ignored it, and the probability of a ceasefire before July on the polymarket has soared from 25% to 98%, which is more authoritative than the official statement of Iran and Israel and even the White House. As in previous weeks of the India-Pakistan conflict, both sides eventually declared themselves victorious Even this time the United States also claimed to win hemp, the old United States was very afraid of Trump's participation in the war, once the war is even a one-sided situation, the US stock market will be affected, as a result, this time Trump played fast and accurately, a weekend, a few B2 bombers, left immediately after the fight, and declared victory overnight, even if the Iranian side denied that the nuclear facilities were destroyed, several American media also jumped out to say that Iran was right, but Trump used his strong social media influence to basically cover up the voices of opposition and doubts, In short, this wave is a win-win situation, the pie is breaking through the 11w trend before the Iran-Israel conflict, and now it has not returned to the price before the war, I see that in recent days, ETF funds have begun to rush into the market again, indicating that this wave of war is a small episode, the long-term layout of the institutions is still in progress, take the pie and value cottage in their hands, and wait for the arrival of the bull, at the latest before the end of Q3, you will be able to see the main rising wave level of the market. Powell bravely entered the Capitol Hill last night, probably because Trump finally did one thing after taking office, that is, mediated the Iran-Israel conflict, which is considered a great increase in prestige, plus a few days ago he changed his words to take down Powell, angrily scolding Old Bao for being stupid and too late, which brought a certain amount of pressure to Old Powell, resulting in Powell's speech last night being much softer than after the FOMC meeting, saying that if inflation is not as expected or the labour market is weak, it may lead to an early interest rate cut, although Powell rejected the possibility of a rate cut in July at the meeting, But the market generally believes that the interest rate cut mouth has been loosened, and now CME expects the probability of interest rate cut in July to increase to 18.6%, the probability of interest rate cut in September is as high as 87%, and the total number of interest rate cuts before the end of the year has also increased to 3 times, these data strongly support the bull market for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, this afternoon Morgan Stanley directly predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 7 times next year, and the final interest rate will fall to around 2.5-2.75%, Now the interest rate is still 4.25, this goal is basically Trump every day shouting that the interest rate cut of 2 percentage points, macro we have passed the period of the most tightening of the currency, this year and next two years of easy interest rates are very conducive to the currency market out of the bull market Now it is still the market of currency stocks, although last night the circle finally pulled back, but the market attention and capital vitality has completed the transfer from the currency market to the stock market, last night coinbase shares took off directly, CB began to lay out the bridge between the traditional and the currency market, last night the news said that it is providing crypto integration services for 200 financial institutions around the world, which also led to a direct 13% surge in COIN, and the currency price went straight to ATH; In addition, the stock price of the reserve $hype listed company eyenovia soared by 65% last night; Nano Labs, which announced its reserve of $bnb last night, directly came to the dry land to pull onions, and the stock price was directly pulled from 10 to more than 30, although the U.S. stock market was poured to the market immediately after the opening, but the overall increase was about 40%; As of last night, there are now more than 20 companies in the reserve pie, 3 in the reserve ETH, 4 in sol, two in hype, and one in the reserve $trx $fet $bnb, you can go to the trend chart of these so-called currency stocks, you will find that both the amount and price are unprecedented recently, and there will be copycat ETFs in the future, which is almost the same as currency stocks, and it is also the corresponding copycat purchased by external funds, but it is carried out on the stock market exchange. In short, the funds are focused here, which also leads to the fact that external funds do not actually enter the currency market, which can explain why most of the copycats in this round of bull market have no market, because the funds brought by these currency stocks or stock coins do not care or even know the copycats in the CEX, and it is impossible to buy you, and the recent market within the currency market is almost all related to currency stocks, such as $sei, which has been flying in the past few days, is also because of the large number of holdings in the circle. In addition, Circle also clearly holds $apt $sui $zro $op which are also worth paying attention to Other copycats we try to pay attention to the leading projects of the head track such as #ai #rwa #stablecoin #defi #etf #l1, the application that no one plays, the protocol that no one uses, and the public chain that is not really a transaction, will not perform too well in this round, in short, the speculation of coins must keep pace with the times, this round of the market is dominated by professional institutions, do not delusionally think that our cognition can exceed the institution, the smartest operation is to buy behind the butt of the institution, so that at least it will not step on the pit.