#Bitcoin / $BTC Welcome to the super cycle (real). _____________________________________ For the past 16 years, Bitcoin's price has been closely bounded to its supply dynamics defined by each halving. This has led to a semi-predictable 4 year cycle: - BTC inflation (new supply introduction) happens via block rewards to miners - Disinflation (the rate of inflation decreasing) happens every four years via the halving - Less rewards = less revenue for miners, which traditionally has led to a bit of an initial stall in prices post halving due to miners having to sell more BTC reserves to cover costs - Eventually, the effect of less new Bitcoin entering into circulation catches up with an increase in demand, which leads to prices climbing - As BTC grows, higher market caps = law of diminishing returns in seeing the same type of parabolic growth from previous cycles _____________________________________ Eventually though - something has to give. Why? By nature, the supply shock effect of the halving... halves each cycle. What happens when something continues to halve? It becomes much less significant, and eventually its effect becomes negligible. Not only is the numerator (new supply from block rewards) decreasing each cycle, the denominator (aka total supply) is increasing. Eventually - BTC is no longer just disinflationary, it truly becomes deflationary. Though the supply won't decrease on paper, this assumes that there becomes a point where more BTC is lost every year than is introduced via block rewards. Miners will become more dependent on fees than they will block subsidies. So to boil it down a bit more simplistically, we're reaching the point where the supply / demand model of Bitcoin from previous cycles is finally starting to break. It's time for new assumptions in our model. _________________________________________ What else has changed? We've covered the supply side of things, but it's time to finally consider that the mechanics for demand are also different than previous cycles. - This is the first cycle with spot Bitcoin ETFs. Something we dreamed of in previous cycles, but never saw come to fruition. This allows potential investment of new capital into BTC at a rate we've never seen before. - Countries and corporations are starting to build BTC reserves. El Salvador, Tesla, Gamestop, and others are only the first dominoes to fall. - We finally have a pro-crypto president in the US pushing for pro industry regulation. - The tech and infrastructure of the industry is also better than it's ever been. Dapps are more advanced, BTC is being used as a development layer, and the number of places that accept BTC as a form of payment is higher than it's ever been before. ------------------------------------- All of this to say, it's time to think bigger. Be more bullish.

@Nero_Investing