"Good news, Raging Copycat season is here Bad news in the U.S. stock market" Damn, I'm also going to take some money to engage in U.S. stocks Let's lay a foundation first, and prepare to collect U.S. stocks below: A complete research and decision-making framework for the U.S. stock valuation system Most leeks only look at "P/E is not cheap" The real valuation system, behind it: Asset quality Profitability Macro variables Valuation models The multi-dimensional interaction of market games The following is a systematic, U.S. valuation analysis framework 👇 that is common to U.S. stocks 1️⃣ Asset: Business Quality The premise of valuation is that the company itself is valuable. This part focuses on whether the company can survive the cycle and continue to be profitable in the long run. a. Industry barriers: Is there a moat? For example, Apple's ecological stickiness, Microsoft's corporate lock-in effect, and Visa's network effect. b. Business model: To B (SaaS), To C (consumer electronics), and platform (Meta/Google) are very different, and the valuation methods are also different. c. Management ability: to see whether its past execution and capital allocation are rational, such as Berkshire's Warren Buffett and Apple's Cook, are very representative. d. Financial soundness: the quality of the balance sheet, whether it has high cash, low debt, and the ability to weather the recession. ESG and compliance factors: Institutional investors are increasingly demanding ESG, especially pension funds and sovereign wealth fund buyers. 🔎 Summary: This part determines whether you are "willing to own" the company, not only to speculate, but also to trust its future. 2️⃣ Earnings Power & Growth The core variable that determines a company's valuation is whether profitability is strong enough and whether growth is sustainable. a. ROE/ROIC: The higher the return on capital, the more money you make with the same money, which is one of the most important metrics for Buffett. b. Profit margin: High gross profit margin and high net profit margin often mean that there is pricing power, such as Adobe's subscription software and NVDA's AI chips. c. Revenue and profit growth: Companies with sustained double-digit growth tend to have much higher valuation tolerance than stable companies. d. Unit Economics: SaaS looks at LTV/CAC; Consumer e-commerce will look at ARPU and repurchase rate; These are the keys to early-stage business valuation. e. Operating leverage: How much can profit increase if revenue increases by 1%? This is the embodiment of the efficiency of the growth stack. 🔎 Summary: This part is the determinant of the pricing "ceiling". If you don't grow, you're not worth a high multiple. 3️⃣ External Variables: Macro & Sector Context Markets are dynamic, companies do not grow in a vacuum, and valuations must take into account the macro environment, interest rates, policies, and cycles. a. Interest Rate Impact: The most critical parameter in the discount model. The higher the interest rate, the lower the valuation of high-growth stocks. Over the past two years, tech stocks have been driven by interest rates. b. Economic cycle: cyclical stocks (e.g., energy, industrials) depend on which stage; Defensive stocks (e.g., consumer goods, pharmaceuticals) are more transcyclical. c. Industry life cycle: For example, AI is just starting out, and the valuation can be overdrawn for 10 years; When traditional retail enters a period of recession, it must be discounted. d. Regulatory environment: Technology giants, financial platforms, and Chinese concept stocks are all subject to policy risks, and their valuations are subject to "policy discounts". e. Exchange rate factors: For global revenue companies such as Meta, Apple, and Nike, US dollar fluctuations directly affect earnings performance. 🔎 Summary: You are not doing DCF in a vacuum, macro anchoring, determining whether the valuation has logical support. 4️⃣ Valuation Techniques: Valuation Techniques The core of valuation is pricing – whether the price at which the purchase reflects future cash flows and risk. a. Relative Valuation (Multiples) P/E: It is suitable for enterprises with stable profits, which needs to be compared with the industry in combination with the historical range. EV/EBITDA: Suitable for capital-heavy companies, filtering out capital structure differences. P/S: It is often used for loss-making but fast-growing companies (SaaS, AI), and it is necessary to be very cautious if it is higher than 20 times. PEG: P/E combined with the rate of growth to measure "valuation reasonableness". b. Absolute Valuation Method (DCF/DDM) DCF: Discounted Future Free Cash Flow. Suitable for mature businesses, but very sensitive to assumptions. DDM: Suitable for companies with high dividends and stable growth (e.g. utilities, traditional blue chips). Key variables: Discount rate (WACC), growth rate (g), FCF forecast. c. Special case valuation method Valuation of SaaS and platform companies: TAM × market share × profit margin × EV/S multiples to estimate the future space Valuation of AI enterprises: "Model derivation" + "Narrative-driven" with EV/S pricing can be used in the early stage 🔎 Summary: The more complex the better, the valuation model is not adapted to the company's stage, business logic and market expectations. 5️⃣ Market Feedback Loop: Transaction Dimension Verification (Market Feedback Loop) Valuation is not a closed-door process, and ultimately has to fall on market consensus and trading behaviour. a. Fund flow: Changes in key holdings such as active funds, ETFs, northbound funds, and Bank of America/ARK can determine whether the valuation is recognised by the buyer. b. Sell-side Consensus: Is Analysts' EPS Forecast Revised Up? Is there a centralised upgrade of the rating? Reflect the degree of market consistency bullishness. c. Options Market: IV volatility reflects the pricing of valuation risk for major events (earnings reports, interest rate hikes). d. Corporate actions: buybacks vs. additional issuances, which determine management's attitude towards current valuations; Dividend policies affect the willingness to buy value. e. Social Sentiment and Discourse Power: In the era of U.S. stocks, Narrative = Valuation Premium (e.g. $NVDA, $PLTR) 🔎 Summary: No matter how perfect the valuation is, if the market doesn't buy it, it's just empty talk. ✅ Summary: Three key suggestions for building a valuation system 1️⃣ Starting from the texture, decide whether the value is worth studying 2️⃣ Use business logic to price and decide how much it is worth 3️⃣ Verify with market feedback to determine whether the buying point is valid Valuation is not a single point of judgement, but a logical chain: business → financial → macro → model → market behaviour. The real master is not to find the "most underestimated" company, but to find the company that the market is willing to give a premium and you dare to buy. @MyStonks_Org @MyStonksCN is a decentralised platform for U.S. stock tokens, backed by Fidelity Escrow with 1:1 real U.S. stock assets In the past, retail investors wanted to invest in Apple and Nvidia, or they went to engage in U.S. stock accounts Either you can only buy all kinds of shadow funds Now you only need to have a wallet and use USDT on MyStonks to buy Apple's token AAPL directly on-chain. M, the whole process is transparent on the chain, and there is a 1:1 custody of real shares Don't waste copycat season No matter what the market What can make money is a good market