Regarding "Bitcoin Cycle Models", we have one clear differentiator:
Mining no longer matters.
Given that all previous cycles were driven in large part by the cut in mining rewards, i think it is logically incorrect to assume this 4 year cycle will persist.
Sure, the reduction of 450 BTC / day to 225 BTC will have a *minute* impact. But insignificant when ETFs and Treasury Companies are buying 5,000 BTC / day.
I also think running stats on 3 data points is not actionable. We don't know when the top will happen, and it's somewhat useless to try and predict it.
What we do know, is that the Kelly Criterion works and will keep you out of trouble.
It will capture most of the massive power law return. So chill at 70%.
Rebalance.
Enjoy Life.
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