Matrixport Market Watch: BTC Breaks $110,000, Can Market Rally Continue?
Last week (June 3 - June 10), BTC rebounded after a 10% pullback and $1.9 billion derivatives liquidation, breaking through the $110, 000 mark in the short term. On June 5, affected by the conflict between Trump and Musk, BTC once approached $106, 000 and as low as $100, 372 under the market panic, narrowly guarding the $100,000 mark. The non-farm payrolls data then boosted BTC to $110, 530, the biggest gain of 10.12% during the week, and is now stable around $109, 450. Compared to BTC, ETH has rebounded more sharply, mainly driven by macroeconomic tailwinds and repatriation of funds. The current ETH spot price is around $2, 675 (Binance, 15:00 on June 10).
Market interpretation
:BTC broke through $110, 000 in the short term, and the DeFi sector led the market to rise
Last week, BTC briefly fell below $101, 000 under the market panic caused by the conflict between Trump and Musk, and ETH pulled back synchronously, and mainstream currencies were generally under pressure. With the non-farm payrolls data slightly exceeding expectations, risk appetite picked up, with BTC and ETH leading the rally, and DeFi leaders such as SOL, AAVE, UNI, MKR all rose by more than 13% in a single week. The total crypto market capitalisation rose to $436 million, with long liquidations accounting for 87%, and the total crypto market capitalisation rose to $3.56 trillion. The Panic and Greed Index rose to 71, with a significant return of funds and an acceleration of sector rotation.
The core driving force of the rise is that after the liquidation of highly leveraged funds in the early stage, the selling pressure is released, the liquidity is restored, and the market structure is healthier; Second, the chairman of the SEC released a positive signal on the DeFi exemption policy, and the policy was favourable and investor sentiment was restored. In the short term, the market will still pay attention to the impact of macro data such as US CPI on risk appetite this week.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data slightly exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment was optimistic
TheU.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, a new low in the past three months, but higher than the market expectation of 126,000, and the unemployment rate was flat at 4.2%. After the release of the data, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, and gold prices fell slightly.
Recently, the main line of U.S. stock trading is still focused on the expectation of a "soft landing" of the economy and changes in Sino-US trade policies. Current employment and inflation data are showing a modest slowdown in the economy, a stable unemployment rate, and a delay in market expectations for a Fed rate cut. At the same time, the United States and China have resumed high-level consultations on the issue of "reciprocal tariffs", although the negotiations have not yet made substantial progress, and the market is cautiously optimistic about policy easing.
Overall, the non-farm payrolls data was slightly better than expected, providing some support for U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar, and risk appetite rebounded in stages, but geopolitical and policy uncertainties still exist.
Trump's public conflict with Musk has spilled over the global market
Last Thursday (June 5), Trump and Musk clashed over the "Beautiful Big Act", and the cancellation of electric vehicle tax credits and carbon credit policies severely affected Tesla's profits. Affected by this, Tesla's stock price plummeted by more than 14% on June 6, evaporating about $150 billion in market value, and the three major U.S. stock indexes also fell across the board, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq falling 0.25%, 0.53%, and 0.83% respectively.
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell on the same day, and the crypto market fluctuated violently, with BTC falling as low as $100, 372, and ETH falling by more than 7%. In addition to the "Tema" event itself, this round of market adjustment has also superimposed multiple pressures such as profit taking after the previous surge, the postponement of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and seasonal liquidity sluggishness.
ETH ETF funds have returned, and financial innovation has become the main line
,with a net inflow of $815 million in the past 20 days, and a cumulative net inflow ($658 million) for the first time since the beginning of the year, with a clear trend of capital return. ETH rebounded more than BTC, benefiting from the accelerated implementation of key applications such as stablecoins and asset tokenization. Payment giants such as Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are actively deploying ETH stablecoins, and crypto platforms such as Coinbase and Robinhood are strengthening financial innovation scenarios, and the ETH market structure is gradually shifting from speculation-led to application-driven.
More informationSouth Korea's
new president promotes the institutionalisation of stablecoins and ETFs, driving regional capital backflowAfter
Lee Jae-myung was elected president of South Korea, the ruling party quickly proposed the Basic Law on Digital Assets, relaxed the threshold for local enterprises to issue stablecoins, and promoted the legalisation of virtual asset ETFs. The institutionalisation process of South Korea's crypto market has accelerated, the market transaction heat continues to rise, and favourable policies have promoted the return of funds to local assets in South Korean won.
The total size of crypto funds reached a new high, and the trend of asset allocation diversification strengthened
, withthe global crypto fund assets under management reaching $167 billion in May, with a net inflow of $7.05 billion in a single month, accelerating the inflow of funds into the crypto market. According to the data, BlackRock spot BTC ETF (IBIT) exceeded $70 billion in assets in 341 trading days, and IBIT held 2.8% of the total global BTC supply.
By comparison, global equity funds saw net outflows of $5.9 billion, with gold funds seeing their first net outflows in 15 months. Crypto assets have gradually become a regular allocation of investment portfolios, and structural changes in the market have emerged.
At present, more than 120 listed companies have included BTC in their treasury, and MicroStrategy holds 580,000 BTC, with a market value of more than $61 billion. According to the analysis, if BTC falls below $90, 000, about half of the coin-holding companies will face the risk of loss, passive sell-off or trigger a chain stampede. The greyscale GBTC premium turn and related thunderstorm cases have sounded the alarm for the current crypto treasury model, and the industry needs to be wary of excessive leverage and liquidity risks.
Disclaimer: The above does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore or other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations of offers may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.