đšThe Crypto Supercycleđš
Not my typical thread
But I have seen more people asking when is this cycle ending
As a Web3 founder, I believe weâre entering a long-term supercycle - the typical 4-year cycle is behind us
Hereâs why I think this time is different đ§” đ
1/ The BTC Halving Narrative is Fading
Historically, #BTC 4-year cycles revolved around halving events. But with 94.66% of BTC already mined, halvings have a diminishing impact.
The narrative of digital gold, serving as the perfect hedge vs. inflation is booming instead
2/ Institutions leading the crypto accumulation race
- MSTR now holds 592k BTC, doubling down on its core treasury strategy
- IBIT leads ETFs with $72B AUM
- Institutions are also getting into ETH, SOL, HYPE
This isnât pure speculation-itâs structural demand driving markets
3/ Nations and states are embracing BTC for real this time, as strategic assets
- Trumpâs EO laid the groundwork for a US strategic Bitcoin reserve
- NH/AZ are exploring holding BTC in state reserves
- El Salvador continues to lead with BTC adoption globally
BTC = liquid gold
4/ Circle IPO: A Milestone for Crypto Finance
On June 5, Circle IPOâd on the NYSE, marking a landmark moment for crypto in traditional markets.
-Circleâs stock closed its first day up 168%
-Within 8 days, IPO investors saw nearly 400% gains
Stablecoin game strong.
5/ Wealth Managers advising BTC exposure
Private banks are seeing increasing demand for crypto offerings
Swissâ BBVA now advises its clients to invest in BTC, recommending a portfolio of 3-7% BTC, depending on risk appetite.
6/ Google search interest for BTC still remains relatively low
Probably nothing, but it could well indicate that we are not yet seeing a lot of retail FOMOs in this cycle yet.
7/ The "Supercycle" Thesis
This isnât about market timingâitâs about structural adoption:
-BTC halvings are no longer the main driver
-Institution, private wealth & treasuries interests at historic high
-Crypto IPOs bridging Web3 with tradfi
(Retail is still sleeping)
8/ What Builders Need to Know
Now is the time to focus on building real value:
- Prioritize utility and scalability to solve real problems, be it B2B, B2C or B2G
- Focus on interoperability to unlock network effects
The supercycle will reward meaningful innovation.
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