Capital Flows
Capital Flows
BTC-1.60%
BTC charts showing WHERE we are: đŸ§” My view is we are moving higher because macro liquidity is expanding and this geopolitical risk is likely to fade. The Credit cycle is in full swing Monthly returns for BTC have been positive over the last two months
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As I laid out here equities are likely to melt up and BTC will move in lockstep with this.
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
We are entering one of the most violent periods in markets but this isn't driven by a recession, it's driven by the credit cycle The sheer amount of money being added to the system right now is creating an environment for equities that is very rare Let's dig in đŸ§”đŸ‘‡
Bitcoin seasonality shows the drawdown at the beginning of the year is a bit abnormal but we are likely to mean revert off the back of these now
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We continue to see the BTC proxy names rally with $CRCL rallying the most and leading the way:
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The BTC proxies rallying is an indication of capital moving out the risk curve in a uniform fashion:
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
Why Investors Are Forced to Buy Equities: The Macro Constraints That Create Melt-Ups When liquidity rises and growth improves, capital isn’t free to go anywhere—it’s forced into equities by structural constraints. Melt-ups aren’t a choice. They’re a function of flows.đŸ§”đŸ‘‡
MSTR positioning isn't going overbought conditions or massive complacency. There is a marginal implied volatility premium but MSTR is lagging behind BTC which is likely due to the equity weakness.
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Similar dynamic in COIN
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The net daily flows are still positive on the back on positive MTD and YTD flows into the ETFs. This will continue to be a buyer but as I have said many times, to get BTC to 1m, you need to bring in a lot more buyers who arent hodlers which means a lot more washouts and weak money
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I explained HOW all of these factors are coming together and connect to macro liquidity in this video and connected report:
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
How interest rates connect to macro liquidity and impact risk assets: The report is linked below
Everything is laid out here: @Globalflows
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