《Why Can't Altcoins Rise Anymore?》 Essentially, if more people buy, the coin will rise; if more people sell, the coin will fall. So, from a funding perspective, we can see many things. But it's not just that there are too many crypto projects and too little capital. I tried to study this from multiple dimensions, comparing the last two bull markets, to explore: Why aren't we seeing a general rise anymore, and can we expect future growth? I will discuss the following angles from both objective and subjective dimensions: assets, environment, funding, and players. 1. About Assets 1.1 Minimal Fundamental Changes Across three bull markets, have the fundamentals of the assets changed significantly? Essentially, the gameplay has changed a lot, but the innovation isn't substantial. For instance, in 2017, TRX nailed payments; in 2020, AAVE solidified lending; and in this cycle, PumpFun surprisingly pushed blockchain PvP. Among these benchmark projects, there are very few standout or innovative projects this cycle. Projects like Polymarket don't even issue tokens anymore. So, while there is little true innovation at the foundational level, there has been a lot of "innovation" around asset issuance, such as inscriptions, AI agents, and meme tokens featuring cats, dogs, and hippos. 1.2 Structural Changes This bull market likely started with TIA launching on Binance and skyrocketing. Why did it succeed? Because the token was issued early, the bull market sentiment had just returned, and capital forces were pushing it, coupled with enthusiastic market makers. There were similar cases like WLD, but their token structures were poor, with a large amount of tokens pending release. The market lacked "quality assets" (i.e., narratives widely recognized by everyone), allowing market makers to easily "move mountains with little effort." However, through unlock schedules, we can see that various VC tokens with dense unlocks are quite terrifying. For example, in May last year, the highest monthly unlock reached $5 billion. Unlocking $5 billion in a single month inevitably leads to selling pressure. This volume is enormous—compare it to 2019, when Binance's IEO projects had opening market caps of just tens of millions. Projects like MATIC also launched with low market caps. Essentially, the tokens unlocked in one month this cycle are 100 times the scale of the major projects listed on Binance during the 2019-2020 bull market. Research shows that VC token unlocks are concentrated in 2024 and 2025, with sustained monthly selling pressure. Teams and investors sell upon unlocking, often through market makers, focusing their efforts on selling early. 1.3 Quantity Changes The sheer number of tokens is hard to quantify, but in 2017, attention was focused on garbage tokens promoted by figures like Li Xiaolai and Bao Er Ye. Now, everyone is promoting tokens. PumpFun alone has issued tokens in quantities hundreds or thousands of times greater than in the previous two bull markets. The number of VC tokens is similarly massive, making it hard for even Binance listings to rise due to oversaturation and lack of speculative interest. 2. Environment In 2017 and 2020, the market was still in its early stages, moving toward mainstream adoption. Prices fell significantly during despair and rose amid skepticism. The crypto space had no shortage of new entrants, with fresh money flowing in whenever prices rose. The more naive participants in a market, the more opportunities there are to make money (and lose money quickly). This cycle has entered the mainstream, with the number of crypto users reaching a considerable scale. "Those stinky crypto traders" have now been upgraded to "respected stock traders." In comparison, the crypto space appears more sophisticated, with institutions buying in. However, the downside is that the market has gradually transitioned from an incremental market to a stock market, with fewer new entrants—Trump may represent the peak for the next year or even longer. For crypto to attract more people, it must either change the payment habits of non-crypto users through methods like Pay, or strengthen consensus, such as being included in national reserves. As more countries adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, it could push Bitcoin to become a gold-like asset. However, these developments leave little room for garbage tokens. 3. Funding The scale of stablecoins in the crypto space has continuously reached new highs, exceeding $200 billion, similar to the peak in 2021 and far more than during the 2017 bull market. However, considering the 100x or 1000x growth in projects mentioned earlier, this funding is not as significant. Especially now, funds are no longer recklessly chasing projects—more projects inevitably lead to increased caution among investors. 4. Players The player base has undergone significant changes. In 2017, the market felt naive, frenzied, and joyful. Everyone entered with dreams of getting rich through crypto and ideals about blockchain, rushing in blindly. At that time, only seasoned OGs like Shenyu remained calm, holding coins and cash, having experienced multiple zero-value crashes. Most people were still aimlessly charging forward, as it was an incremental market with always newer entrants to fuel the fire. In 2020, people felt it was the year of realization, with innovations like DeFi and NFTs being hailed as blockchain's salvation, bringing pride, excitement, and frenzy. By 2025, whether people made money or not, they were frustrated. The market consensus shifted to "vision is stupid" and "be a scumbag." More people realized or felt that the current crypto space is just a big casino, with each new token being a new gambling table. Valuable projects are few and far between. Being a researcher is less rewarding than being a gambling expert. In summary, regarding altcoin seasons, it depends on how you define it. If you mean whether altcoins will rise, I think general rises won't happen, but individual coins will always experience explosive growth—new gambling games will always attract their gamblers. However, if you define altcoin season as most altcoins skyrocketing, I think it's unlikely. The assets, funding, sentiment, and user base no longer allow it. *** So, what's next? What are the opportunities for wealth? 1. Meme Tokens Meme tokens were once wealth-generating tools, but it's tough now. Even reaching a $10 million market cap is rare, and hitting $3 million prompts people to call it "golden dog." Watching from the sidelines or buying main tokens like SOL might yield better overall returns than participating directly. However, keep observing; waiting for the "golden dog" to launch is the best strategy. I believe it will happen—I don't worry about casinos not introducing new games. 2. BTC Surge BTC's $200,000 target will be reached, but the likelihood of it happening directly is small. It will need some leverage, such as strong performance in the U.S. stock market next year, with hot money flowing in, providing greater support. Personally, if BTC doubles, I would exit early and leave profits behind. 3. Stock Market Opportunities The stock market indeed offers many opportunities. For example, Xiaomi rose from 15 to over 50 during crypto's downturn; Bubble Mart, which I didn't buy, increased more than 10x in a year, rising inhumanely; and U.S. stocks like Pinduoduo, with 10,000+ employees and profits surpassing JD, Taobao, and even Douyin, remain undervalued. So, I feel that opportunities in crypto are dwindling. I've personally spent considerable effort on the stock market, honing my skills as a versatile investor, occasionally sharing insights in groups. However, many group members are still refining their meme token strategies, awaiting the next wealth opportunity—I believe it will come. I wish every reader great success in the crypto space, becoming whales and navigating the global asset markets!