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To be honest, the most uncertain thing about ETH this week isn't whether it will rise or fall, but that both sides are talking past each other. The portion that exchanges can sell is flowing out — roughly a net outflow of one billion USD from the US spot ETF in October. On the other hand, about 36% of the entire network is already locked in staking, with over a million more queued to enter. The price is soft; it even dipped below 2300 in the early morning. The market seems to be sighing, but on-chain it looks like someone is packing up, preparing to stay longer. I lean toward the latter: interest rates are scary, so ETF redemptions happen; the network is still active, so staking continues. The sideways price action might just be these two forces clashing. If I'm wrong, it might look like this — 2300 can't hold, redemptions keep expanding, and the staking queue suddenly shortens. That would mean people aren't that confident either. In the days after the Fed meeting, I'll watch the redemption numbers against 2300; whoever gives in first loses. $ETH $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Calculating, S&P Global first announced the acquisition on September 17 and declared its completion on October 26, a span of 39 days. The acquisition target is OpenZeppelin, a provider of on-chain financial security standards; financial terms were not disclosed, and S&P Global expects the transaction will not have a significant impact on its own financial performance. I tend to view this as a positive development for the security standardization track, but not a major event that will immediately translate into performance. ① OpenZeppelin was founded in 2015 and was acquired in 2026, spanning 11 years. From another perspective, S&P Global is integrating a security company with a relatively long development history, rather than a newly emerging team; this makes the explanation of "enhancing security capabilities" more convincing. ② From the announcement on September 17 to completion on October 26, the transaction process took 39 days. The completion of the acquisition indicates the deal was finalized, but these 39 days should not be directly counted as progress in product integration or customer adoption; I prefer to view these matters separately. ③ The October 26 announcement still did not disclose the transaction amount, and S&P Global expects the financial impact to be minor. Without the price as a benchmark, it is difficult to value the entire on-chain security track based on the acquisition itself; if there is actual business adoption later, discussing the scope of impact will be more solid. My judgment is that a traditional financial information company’s willingness to incorporate on-chain security capabilities into its system is significant; as for whether this significance will reach ordinary users, I will focus next on how the actual services are implemented and will not rush to calculate returns based on the announcement.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic *Why YES:* Gaming G&NS ¥771B +28% YoY, MAU 219M +3%, playtime +1%, PS Plus shift to higher tier. Music ¥600B+ est — KPop Demon Hunters streaming + 25% streaming growth. Imaging sensor pricing. Tariff loss cut ¥70B→¥50B. ¥100B buyback + FY Op +¥100B raise. 7 of 8 EPS beats. *Valuation:* ¥4,500, mcap ¥24T, -23% off ¥4,776 high. PT cut ¥5,100→¥4,700 but Buy stays. Beat rate 50% last 4Qs. *Call: 65% BEAT — needs Gaming >¥1.1T + Music >¥600B + GM >36%. $24 → $26 if beat.*$ETH ETH is currently at 2,302: J value 13.84 extremely oversold, but the whale's "cleaver" still hangs overhead ETH fell 1.74% intraday. The 1-hour J value is only 13.84, RSI6 dropped to 30.19, signaling extreme oversold conditions, MACD golden cross just appeared below the zero line, green bars shrinking, a short-term rebound could trigger at any time. But oversold has never been a reason for a rise; the liquidation map is the real factor. The ETH long-short ratio remains as high as 2.46, with bullish exposure far from fully cleared. Around 2,272 below, there is about $270 million in long liquidation pressure; if broken, a chain of liquidations could instantly smash the price through 2,200. Meanwhile, spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of over $1.18 billion in October, marking the largest monthly outflow this year; Arthur Hayes publicly declared "I sold all," liquidating 6,400 ETH near 2,375. On-chain old whales are also moving, transferring 5,000 ETH, of which 1,500 have flowed into CEX. Blast has closed its withdrawal interface, some funds are returning to the mainnet, but this is far from enough to offset institutional selling pressure. Key levels: Above, 2,320–2,336 is the moving average resistance zone; if a rebound cannot hold with volume here, it is a window for bears to add positions; below, 2,272 is the last defense line for bulls, and if lost, it opens the space to accelerate down to the whale liquidation price at 2,181. The temptation of an oversold rebound is great, but until the bullish crowding eases, every rebound may be building momentum for the next round of liquidations.$DOOD 592.52%. This is the floating profit ratio. But the real numbers managing this position are three others. First: 29.59%. This is the actual increase. The 20x leverage magnifies it 20 times, but the risk is also magnified 20 times. If it retraces 29.59%, this position goes to zero. Compared to the previous round, the actual increase dropped from 33.76% to 29.59%, buffering reduced by nearly 4 percentage points—the cost of sideways movement. Second: 0.000503. This is the point difference between the current price and the entry price. 0.002203 minus 0.0017. In the volatility of small coins, this distance can't withstand a decent spike. Third: 0.000297. This is the point difference between the current price and the 0.0025 resistance. It was 0.000226 just now, now it's 0.000297—the distance is widening, bullish strength is weakening. The operation is clear: push up to breakeven, secure the main position. Break through 0.0025 to target 0.003, fall back to cost and exit. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The hottest phrase in the group these past two days is, "Those who farm Predict have finally made it." The reason is straightforward: Binance listed its pre-market contract, with the pre-market price around $1.5. At this price, the FDV is roughly $1.5 billion. A prediction market project that hasn't even issued tokens yet is starting off with a valuation comparable to a second-tier public chain. Regarding the airdrop, the market rumor is that the share is no less than 5%. Calculated at $1.5 billion, that's a $75 million pot. Some people estimate the value of a single PP point at $0.15, and accounts with thousands of points could realize amounts in the hundreds to a thousand dollars range, which is not just empty excitement. The project didn't just appear out of nowhere. In March this year, CZ retweeted its airdrop points tweet, and shortly after interacted again. The hype started from then. In the meantime, it acquired Probable, merging the two point systems, so early participants who farmed both sides effectively got double the rewards. But I'm not so optimistic about the pre-market price. A $1.5 pre-market price essentially means the TGE's high opening is cashed in early, and those who enter at the actual opening will have to start at a $1.5 billion valuation. My approach is simple: I don't chase the pre-market price. I wait for the TGE opening; if it opens low, I'll consider entering, if it opens high, I'll just watch from the sidelines. Farming profits come from patience, trading profits come from positioning—don't mix the two.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？ SpaceX's recent $40 billion AI funding round has had some back-and-forth news. Musk publicly said it has been finalized, but there are still reports that the pricing hasn't been fully agreed upon. The credit market is very picky now; AI infrastructure companies without stable core businesses find it hard to get funding. Even though SpaceX's performance is impressive, the interest cost on this large amount of capital is not low, so there will be considerable pressure going forward.Greatness needs no words! Pump officially integrates with X Layer! With Pump launching on X Layer, it may seem like just another chain added to the asset list. Users don’t need to cross chains or switch wallets; the same USDC balance can be directly traded on X Layer tokens. This is possible because the underlying settlement ecosystem is already established. In August 2026, Circle brought native USDC and CCTP to X Layer. USDC no longer relies on traditional liquidity bridges but is natively minted by Circle and flows in and out via CCTP. By early October, X Layer’s stablecoin TVS was about $133 million, with approximately $17.78 million of USDC bridged externally via CCTP. Pump is integrating with a stablecoin layer that is already aligned with Western trading habits, not a new network that requires users to learn cross-chain operations first.#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Capital Flow and Leverage Liquidation · ETF Capital Momentum Reversal: Although the entire week still recorded a net inflow of about $301 million, after cumulative inflows of approximately $1.075 billion in the first three trading days, there was a single-day net outflow of $636 million on Thursday (the largest recent single-day withdrawal), followed by another outflow of $138 million on Friday. The two-day total outflow of about $770 million directly weakened the buying support in the market. · Long Liquidations Leading the Decline: In the past 24 hours, about 196,000 people were liquidated across the network, totaling $728 million, with longs accounting for as much as 84%. Bitcoin long liquidations were about $234 million. This decline was more a chain reaction of forced liquidations of leveraged longs rather than active selling on the spot side. · Coinbase Premium Continues to Turn Negative, Indicating Weak Buying Power from U.S. Institutions. Macro and Event Drivers · Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (October 28): The market expects rates to remain unchanged this time (over 93% probability of no rate hike), but bets on a rate hike in December remain high at 73%–77%, with hawkish expectations suppressing risk appetite. · Inflation and Oil Price Pressure: September CPI rose to 3.7%, Brent crude oil broke through $115, and renewed inflation concerns combined with U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5.3% have pushed the 7-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to as high as 83.4%, weakening Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute and amplifying its risk asset characteristics. #AMDQ3HeliosRevenue Q2 BEAT: $11.54B vs $11.3B, DC $6.72B +107% (58% of sales), EPS $1.66 vs $1.62 — but sold -8% on GM miss. Helios rack (EPYC + MI355X/450) shipments Q3, ramp Q4. Demand ahead of forecast. Server CPU >80% YoY H2 26, DC 2x again in 2027. OpenAI 6GW, Meta, Anthropic 2GW, Oracle. Wedbush $600 — CPU tight = upside. Valuation: $521, 131x P/E, 38.5x 2027 $14.11. YTD +143%. Needs DC >$7.5B + Q4 $15.7B guide. Call: 75% BEAT — numbers good, price is GM. >56.5% GM + Helios vol = $608Dogecoin has new developments, but the price hasn't taken off! BTC is still hovering around 80,000, and ETH continues to weaken. Rather than guessing who's laying low, there's a detail in this announcement that's more worth watching. On October 21, Dogecoin Labs announced the integration of MyDoge, DogeOS, and Such App. However, the regulatory filing from House of Doge on October 23 notes that the asset transfer for Such App has not yet been completed. Announcing integration does not mean everything is fully implemented. First, looking at $BTC, it’s at 80,198, down 0.32% in 24 hours. It's only 198 dollars away from 80,000. Being close to a round number doesn't mean there is definite support here. Next, $ETH is at 2,318, down 0.74%. It’s weaker than BTC in the same window, only 18 dollars above 2,300. Just because it has already dropped doesn’t mean the risk ahead is smaller. Finally, $DOGE is at 0.07720. The integration of wallets, apps, and payments is worth noting, but the announcement doesn’t mean new users have already appeared, nor that buying pressure has entered the market. I’m more focused on the actual number of users, payment transactions, and retention going forward, rather than how many project names appear in the announcement. The ecosystem is progressing, but the price increase has no delivery date. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Privacy coin internal split, AI chain quietly rising, and there's a weird one with a market cap of 6.1 billion and a volume of 15 million. Won the narrative but lost today’s $XMR at $594.38, down 3.38%, but weekly up 3.82%, 14-day up 13.6%, driven by FinCEN withdrawing the mixing regulation proposal on October 5. ZEC is strong while XMR is weak, indicating funds are making choices, not a sector-wide rally. 580 is support; breaking it means the good news is fully priced in. There's still 24% room to the January peak of 797.73, but it must first reclaim 620. Quietly rising minority $NEAR at $4.58, up 1.52%, volume 456.87M, turnover clearly better than the market. 4.50 is the bull-bear line; falling below 4.3 is just an oversold rebound, only breaking 4.80 with volume counts as a trend. The weird one with a market cap of 6.1 billion and volume of 15 million, $RAIN at $0.0086, up 4.63%, market cap 6.14B, volume only 15.83M. No target price set; if volume doesn’t reach 100M, any gains are just paper wealth. There are two types of altcoin special situations: those with volume, and those with only price. The latter is called a trap.#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Nov 4 — Est: $0.37 EPS | $740M Rev* Last BEAT Q3 already printed? $0.64 vs $0.22 est, Net Inc $214M +202%, Rev $740M +66%. USDC $73.7B +108% YoY. But stock -11% after. *Valuation squeeze:* Mizuho PT $43 (-48%), Wolfe $60 — 96% rev = interest. Fed cut fear = -10-20% reserve income. P/E 49x, Fwd 80x+ still rich. Q2 miss $0.18 vs $0.16. *Call: 70% BEAT but 30% stock BEAT — needs USDC >$75B + stable reserve yield. >$800M Rev + Other $100M = $95 test. Rate cut guide = fade.*$BTC BTC is currently quoted at 79,666.7 USDT, down 1.15% intraday, with a 24-hour low of 79,322.9. The price is pressured below MA20 (80,161.5) and MA30 (80,273.0), with SUPERTREND resistance at 80,722.1. The 1-hour MACD shows a golden cross below the zero line with expanding red bars, RSI6 has rebounded to 29.9, moving out of the extreme oversold zone, indicating a short-term oversold recovery pattern. On the macro front, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market risk aversion has intensified, compounded by ongoing concerns about AI trading, putting overall pressure on the crypto market. Traders are generally reducing risk exposure, focusing on whether a December rate hike signal will be released after the meeting; the interest rate path remains the key short-term variable. The funding situation is in a tug-of-war. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $770 million combined on Thursday and Friday last week, contrasting with over $1 billion net inflow earlier in the week, yet the full week still recorded a net inflow of about $301 million. On-chain whales have cumulatively increased holdings by about 85,000 to 89,000 BTC since mid to late September, the fastest accumulation pace since February this year, diverging from ETF outflows. The liquidation heatmap shows strong short liquidations of $787 million at the upper level of $84,240, and long liquidations of about $770 million at the lower level of $76,764. After breaking below the net long cost zone of $81,993, BTC long liquidations in 24 hours reached about $85.9 million, with 64% of net long positions currently at a floating loss, indicating that leverage pressure has not yet been fully released. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Currently, oil price risks are piling up as the FOMC approaches. The market will first trade inflation and may preemptively digest the shock. At present, the market is trading inflation expectations. The oil price has fallen from a nearly six-month high, which does not mean the supply risk has disappeared. The market mainly focuses on the impact of oil prices on inflation and how long interest rates will remain high. If oil prices continue to decline and the Federal Reserve's statements are not more hawkish, the market may switch back to growth and liquidity. $BTC may not necessarily continue to follow inflation concerns. Between oil prices and Bitcoin, there is still the transmission through the dollar and real interest rates. $ETH $ZEC After institutions enter the market, the advantage I can think of for retail investors is surprisingly that we don't have to report quarterly results. We can't compete with their capital or information, but I just buy some Bitcoin and hold it slowly, without needing to explain to anyone why I haven't outperformed recently. Even if companies are willing to buy long-term, they can't cover the odds of my purchase; the money for dollar-cost averaging still needs to be kept intact. That said, my phone keeps pushing notifications about others catching some market moves, and I've turned them off several times already, but they still keep coming.#PalantirQ3Valuation Why YES: US Comm $764M +149%, Gov $809M +90% Q2 — AIP rocket. FY guide $8.15B→ Street looks for $8.2B+ raise. Citi $250 PT, Knox FedRAMP deal just. Valuation problem: $197, P/S 82x, P/E 168x, Fwd P/E 102x, P/S 85x. Even +$8.2B beat = priced. Fair DCF base $163 vs $197 = -14% safety. Software ETF IGV -4.6% Oct 16 dragged PLTR -7% same day. $2.16B = in-line = sell. Call: 60% EPS BEAT but 40% stock BEAT — needs $2.25B+ & US Comm >140% + FY $8.3B to hold $200. Else $184.War again. So someone jumps out again, skillfully shouting those two words: safe haven. Quickly buy gold, quickly buy Bitcoin. And then? Today gold hit a three-week low, Bitcoin fell below eighty thousand. Because war is never a safe haven event, it is an inflation event. When oil prices rise, interest rates can't come down; when interest rates can't come down, your leveraged positions have to pay the installment bill for this war. Even Trump said that high oil prices are a "small price." Yes, a small price. But this small price is not charged to him, it's charged to you. I'm not bearish on war. I'm bearish on the phrase "war is good for crypto": every round, someone uses "safe haven" to trick you into getting on board, and every round, the bill is charged to the same group of people. 我先说个反直觉的：今年从山顶摔得更疼的，反而是黄金。 先看年初到现在。BTC去年最后一个收盘是87,639，现在79,685，年内-9.1%。黄金期货从4,341到4,015，-7.5%。俩人一起泡在水里，差不多深。 但从高点量就不一样了。黄金1月29号收到5,318，那会儿年内已经涨了两成多，现在回撤24.5%。BTC年内最高是1月14号的96,946，回撤17.8%。 所以"币圈波动大、黄金稳"这句老话，今年起码得打个折。 我自己的理解是，今年这俩更像同一类东西，都是在交易流动性和降息预期，钱紧的时候一起被卖。BTC六月底最低到过58,628，后面能弹回来，黄金则是一路慢慢放气。 当然我也可能想多了。周四凌晨两点FOMC一出，要是给的信号偏松，两个可能一起抬头，那"避险"这个标签又会被翻出来。恐惧贪婪现在50，市场情绪也是一副两边都不想站的样子。 说到底，今年躲进黄金的人也没躲过去。我这周就看两件事：FOMC怎么说，BTC 8万能不能当个参考位稳住。$BTC #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 $ZEC ZEC这盘面太真实了。 巨鲸空头手里握着接近1.9亿美金的空单，多空比被压到不到0.16，平均建仓成本在1225附近，现在浮盈都超过75%了。 最搞笑的是价格一路下挫创新低，资金费率居然还是正的。散户还在源源不断送死接飞刀，倒贴利息给主力买单。 上面全是解套盘，主力利润垫厚得跟墙一样，拿什么反弹？ #ZEC $ZEC 👇NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is highlighting a critical challenge: AI demand is exploding, but financing the infrastructure behind it is becoming increasingly difficult. Here’s why I’m paying attention. 👀 Oil prices remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions, inflation is creating pressure on the Federal Reserve, and borrowing costs are making massive AI investments more expensive. Meanwhile, Big Tech is committing hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure. The opportunity is enormous, buTransportation has somewhat recovered, but that doesn't mean the risk premium has disappeared—oil prices remain stuck in a "wartime structure." Hard data: Brent was around $114.5–115 per barrel on Monday, down 1%–2% from Friday's nearly six-month high of about $117, while WTI remains around $101. Trump stated that oil output from the Strait of Hormuz has already exceeded pre-war levels, and shipping data also shows Gulf exports are close to pre-war levels, though about 40% are rerouted through pipelines; Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy-related targets continued over the weekend. Supply figures are being restored, but the risk premium hasn't been fully removed, so oil prices "can fall a bit" but "are unlikely to return to 80." High oil prices continue to suppress risk appetite, posing a macro headwind for $BTC. Do you believe more in "diplomatic easing pushing oil prices below 100" or "the premium sticking above 110"? #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $CL $BZ Last night I said I would verify two things tonight, and after checking, one is correct and the other is the opposite. $SPCX is correct. The hype is indeed fading: opened at 157.95, marked at 146.9208108, +417.73 (+61.48%). An eightfold short position, reasoning being "the excitement will fade," and it’s fading slowly, but the direction has never been misleading. This position remains untouched. $TSLA is the opposite. The half position that turned positive after the earnings report is now −84.70 (−17.18%) tonight. Opened at 377.29678, marked at 390.72000, forced liquidation at 415.80208. My reasoning still feels right: after the earnings report, there are no new numbers to support it. But the price moved in the opposite direction. Reasoning and price have never been the same thing. There’s nothing to verify tonight on the rating front, so I’ll leave it blank for now; no forcing it. $BTC on the other hand returned to +272.71 (+59.47%), marked at 79,809.16, with the gap widening to 6,071. Crypto hasn’t followed the US stock market here. A few words: with the same judgment, one earns over four hundred, the other loses over eighty; the difference lies in which step the market chooses to take first. For this $TSLA position, where would you draw your line? Let’s discuss in the comments👇 #SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷 #AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook Q3 BEAT: $109.4B vs $109.0B, EPS $2.02 vs $1.89 — 8/8 beats. Stock ATH $351, $5T mcap. Why YES: iPhone 17 +10-14% YoY, 235M units est. Foldable iPhone Duo 20M units (Munster $8B extra FY27). India +20%, Services $31B+. Guide 9-11% Rev ($111.7-113.8B) — Street at top. Risk: GM 47-48% vs 50.1% Q3 (memory costs + 2.5% FX). iPhone 18 Pro order cuts Oct noted. P/E 39x leaves no room. Call: 55% BEAT — needs iPhone >$62B + Services >$31B to hold $340. Miss GM <47% = $322.Newbies, don't start by asking what to buy First understand wallets and private keys; if you lose them, no one can help you recover Don't click on airdrop links recklessly; nine out of ten want to steal your assets $BTC can be used as a market thermometer, but it can also stay sideways for a long time $ETH depends on the ecosystem and upgrades; don't just look at daily price changes $USDT is fine for transition, but don't put all your money in one place If you can't understand the whitepaper, stay away; be cautious of stories that sound too good Test withdrawals with a small amount first, continue after confirming receipt Dollar-cost averaging is less stressful than chasing highs and lows, provided it's spare money Don't believe in guaranteed high returns; if it were that stable, you wouldn't get a chance Sleep well, don't overtrade, surviving means you have a chance for the next round#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Just saw this, my first reaction was: how did crypto news turn into a political topic again 😂 According to Bloomberg, crypto, venture capital, and prediction market companies associated with Trump and his family are rushing to hire lawyers and lobbyists to prepare for possible congressional investigations. Democratic lawmakers have requested information from World Liberty Financial and 1789 Capital, focusing on government contracts, policy favors, and conflicts of interest. I've been in the crypto space for just a year, and I used to easily interpret "having political resources" as an advantage. After thinking about it, my current judgment is: this is more like a risk warning for the related companies, and cannot be directly taken as a negative for the entire crypto industry. Hiring lawyers is a precaution, not proof that problems have been found. My understanding is that political connections also bring additional scrutiny, and resource advantages may come at a cost. If the Democrats win the midterm elections and push for investigations, the related companies might have to spend more effort responding—this is my speculation. The investigation focuses on contracts, policies, and interest relationships, so it cannot be concluded that there are issues with the technology or products based on this. I still haven't figured out how ordinary users should distinguish between political controversies and actual operational risks. I'd like to ask experienced seniors: in the future, will you prioritize looking at formal investigation documents or the companies' disclosures about contracts and interest relationships, and why?#SanDiskQ1StorageGrowth Last BEAT: FQ4 $8.97B vs $8.48B (+372% YoY), EPS $39.25 vs $34.96. FQ3 $5.95B +251% vs $4.8B guide (+61% EPS beat). Stock +488% YTD but -40% from $2,335 peak. Why YES: Datacenter $2.98B +103% QoQ (645% YoY) = AI storage king. BiCS8 QLC Stargate ramp now. NBM multi-year contracts = 84.6% GM, 70% op margin. NAND +20% QoQ price still. Risk: Consumer $556M -32% QoQ — price kills demand. Growth slowing $23→$39→$45 (278%→68%→15%). Call: 70% BEAT — needs $10.8B+ + GM >84%Falling 21% and rushing to buy the dip? Look up at the 500,000 large sell orders above; the manipulative whales are worried no one will take the bait! Brothers, some think "it's the bottom" after a 21% drop and rush to buy the dip? Let me tell you, if you jump in now, you're just handing your head to the whales! Look at $APR, current price 0.03253, a direct 21.16% plunge in 24 hours. I opened a high-position short at 0.04294, and my floating profit has hit 72.38%. I've already feasted on the meat from this drop until my mouth is dripping with oil. Why do I say the decline is far from over? Let's take a look at the order book: First, there's a "Five Finger Mountain" pressing down from above. Open your eyes wide and look at the sell orders above: 184,000 at 0.03261, 170,000 at 0.03260, and 174,000 at 0.03255! Altogether, over 500,000 tokens of selling pressure, like a wall of sighs blocking the way. What can the bulls use to break through? Charging up is suicide! Second, the long-short ratio is clear. Bulls only hold 27%, bears dominate with 73%. Retail bulls have long been crushed into doubt, and the trend has completely turned bearish. This guillotine-like downward movement means the bottom is bottomless. Don't always think a big drop means a rebound. You should know that in a downtrend channel, any slight rebound is just a setup for a harsher next drop. Hold your short positions firmly. If it breaks below the 0.03 level, a big waterfall drop awaits. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Zcash spot ETF saw a net inflow of $41.1 million this week, marking the strongest week since mid-September. The previous three weeks experienced a net outflow of $143 million, so this inflow partially recovers the losses from before. What’s more notable is the pace. On September 23 alone, $20.52 million flowed back in, accounting for half of the entire week’s inflow. Such a high concentration indicates that the incoming funds were not large in volume but urgent, more like event-driven buying rather than a slow accumulation of a base position. During the same period, Bitcoin ETFs experienced large outflows for two consecutive days. The two are moving in opposite rhythms; on the evening of the 25th, ZEC was quoted at $1,209 on Binance, up 6.4%, clearly outperforming the broader market. However, there isn’t enough evidence to say the trend has reversed. ETF money can flow in one day and out the next; the full cycle was demonstrated just in the past three weeks. Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting will lead to a repricing of risk assets, which will be the real determinant of whether this wave is a rebound or a turning point. Personally, I only look at the continuity of funds, not single-week figures. Trends should be discussed after three consecutive weeks of net inflows; those who change their stance after one week usually get hit from both sides. At this point, it’s better to miss out on some earlier gains than to catch an emotional trade at the peak. Keep positions smaller and add after next week’s meeting results come out.#AmazonQ3AWSOutlook Oct 29 AMC — Est: $202B Rev | $1.96 EPS | AWS 35% Guide: $197-202B Rev (+9-12%), OpInc $22.5-26.5B vs $17.4B YoY — Street at top end. Q2 BEAT: $200.6B Rev, OpInc $27.5B +43%, AWS $42.2B +36.7% fastest in 18Qs, margin 39.4%. Why YES: AWS accelerating 5 Qs: 19%→22%→30%→36.7%→35% est. Backlog $496B. AI + chips run-rate $25B each, capacity short till 2027. 65% beat odds. Risk: Capex $220B, FCF -$7.6B TTM. If capex raised again without AWS >35% = selloff. Call: 65% BEAT$BTC Strategy holds 848,500 BTC, which at today's price translates to a paper profit of $4.058 billion. Bitcoin's current price is around 79,800, with a 24-hour low touching 79,377. The 80,000 round number resistance is right overhead and hasn't been reclaimed all day. Last week, I cut half my position near 80,500, planning to exit if it broke down. But in the past two days, it has been oscillating between 79,500 and 81,000, and after cutting, it hasn't dropped much, which is quite awkward. The treasury's coin hoarding path is now a dilemma. They won't sell below 80,000, and financing channels remain open, but they also can't push the market up. If there is another crash, the first to blow up will be these highly leveraged listed companies hoarding coins. I'm holding the remaining half position with the stop-loss unchanged. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix's quarterly report is about to be released, and the market is asking whether HBM4 can push profits even higher. My answer is straightforward: it can. But this quarterly report has no direct relation to the coins in your account; what matters is who ultimately pays the bill behind it. First, let's clarify the nature of this business. HBM stacks multiple layers of memory and runs them closely alongside computing chips on a dedicated path; with the same wafer area, the money earned from this is several times that of ordinary memory. Because of this, it is no longer a cyclical consumer electronics product; it is a listed material—who allows it to sell, where it sells, and how much it sells are determined politically first, then priced by the market. If you don't understand this order, you will misread everything that follows. Let me explain the transmission chain clearly: the more intense the computing power needed for training and inference, the tighter the demand for HBM; tight supply leads to price increases, and ultimately what is pushed up is the cost of the entire data center. What you really need to watch is at what cost level the AI business starts to become unprofitable. Once rent can no longer cover depreciation and equipment costs, the first to be hit won't be the chip companies' stock prices, but those coins priced by stories of "computing power scarcity"—they have no contracts, only white papers. History reflects this clearly. In Q4 2018, the storage cycle peaked, and SK Hynix's operating profit dropped by more than 80% within a year. They did nothing wrong themselves; the cycle was at fault. The companies that fared best in that round were those that locked in capacity early with long-term contracts, not those chasing spot prices and bidding up prices. What differs this time from last is that the demand side has shifted from mobile phones to a computing power arms race, with buyers being a few large companies that can afford to pay, and the cycle#CoinbaseQ3DeribitImpact Oct 29 AMC — Est: -$0.15 EPS | $1.17B Rev -37% YoY Est cut -59% in 30 days. Q2 MISS: -$1.36 vs -$0.44, Rev $1.22B Deribit game-changer: Closed $2.9B deal, now fully integrated. US + global derivs single pool. Institutional vol +22% QoQ, inst revenue +120% Q3 25 beat. This Q Deribit est $220M of $527M trans rev (42%). Plus tokenized stocks $20M/week, USDC balance $15B = $354M income. Call: 45% BEAT — bar is low. If derivs + subs >$700M = beat. Miss again = $140 test.Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes $DOOD rate is relatively high with a price drop accompanied by increased positions. Price -0.61%, open interest +3%; current rate -0.7292% (4-hour cycle; approximately -4.375% daily, -1.609% realized in 24h, about 136 minutes to settlement). The rate is relatively high and positions are still accumulating; pullbacks usually cause greater impact. $IRYS rate is relatively high with limited price change. Price 0%, open interest +0.34%; current rate -0.2166% (4-hour cycle; approximately -1.299% daily, -0.930% realized in 24h, about 136 minutes to settlement). When price is stable, judge crowding by rate and open interest changes. $EWZ rate is relatively high with price increase accompanied by reduced positions. Price +1.81%, open interest -4.22%; current rate +0.0668% (8-hour cycle; approximately +0.200% daily, -0.907% realized in 24h, relatively high in the past 7 days, about 136 minutes to settlement). Rate and price move in the same direction while positions shrink; the quality of this market move should be discounted.Let's start with a reality check: don't rush to see the buyback as a positive for Bitcoin. The SEC 8-K filing shows that Empery Digital has resumed stock buybacks, repurchasing 122,955 shares during the week ending October 23 at an average price of $2.89; the company holds 1,018 $BTC. I think this news is more significant for the company's shareholders than for the crypto market. There are two reasons: the buyback is of stock, not additional Bitcoin purchases, so it doesn't directly support the coin's price; the buyback may improve per-share metrics, but that doesn't mean the holding strategy has already generated stable returns. Mixing these two issues can easily hype emotions ahead of facts. Of course, I might be a bit cautious. If future disclosures show that the buyback can continuously improve shareholder returns while the holding risk is controlled, I will reconsider. Are you bullish or bearish? Is your stance based on the buyback itself or on the BTC they hold? 📉 $BTC Bearish Scenario: Key Time Windows in the Coming Weeks If BTC continues to face pressure below $83K on the weekly chart, it may indicate a failed breakout. Subsequently, watch for a pullback to the $70K–$75K support zone, or even a drop below the September 15 low before a rebound. Key dates to watch: October 29 Federal Reserve rate decision and PCE inflation data—if inflation remains hot, long-term US Treasury yields may rise again, putting pressure on risk assets; November 3 US midterm elections could also increase market volatility. If the stock market continues to weaken in November, BTC could further test lows and gradually form a quarterly bottom around mid-November. 📊 According to timing patterns, most interim highs from July to October occurred around the 21st of each month. Based on this, the current high window might fall between October 21 and November 3. However, the sample size is limited, so this is for reference only. ⚠️ Key invalidation condition: If the weekly chart closes back above $83K on October 26, the current bearish thesis needs to be reassessed. This market scenario is a plan, not a certainty. Managing risk is more important than fixating on a single direction. #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek $DOOD To be honest, seeing a 674% unrealized profit on the screen makes my feelings complicated. I opened a long position with 0.0017 at 20x leverage. Now it's at 0.002274, with an unrealized profit of 674.90%. The actual price increase is 33.76%, a difference of 0.000574. This money is borrowed from the market and can be taken back at any time. The explosive power of small-cap coins is indeed amazing, but I've also seen too many cases where prices surged and then dropped to zero within minutes. There are three things I fear the most: First, adding to the position impulsively. With 674% right in front of me, it's easy to think "just add one more and it'll be 1000%". Chasing longs at 20x leverage is the dumbest move; you often chase the very peak of that wave, especially with small-cap coins—when the pumping funds withdraw, you're the last one holding the bag. Second, liquidity traps. For a coin like DOOD, the buy depth isn't enough, so you might not be able to exit when you want. Third, failing to break through the 0.0025 resistance. It's just 0.000226 short, but that small difference decides whether this wave continues or ends here. So I've made up my mind: take profits on the main position, move the stop to break even, and treat the rest like a lottery ticket. 674% is enough, don't be greedy. If it breaks 0.0025, look to 0.003; if it falls back to 0.0017, exit and do nothing in between. Remember, the huge profits from small-cap coins are given by the market; how much you take away depends on yourself. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The most dangerous part of this ETH decline isn’t how far the price has fallen. It’s that the trend keeps weakening while more traders continue betting on a rebound. Over the past two days, $ETH has dropped from 2,368 to a low near 2,291. The rebounds along the way have failed to reverse the downward trend, and the price is now hovering around 2,312. But is this genuine buying pressure, or just a temporary pause before another move lower? Look at the positioning data: long accounts account for 7#IntelQ3TerafabFoundry Last Q BEAT: $16.1B vs $15.5B, EPS $0.42 vs $0.21, 4/4 beats. Guide $15.8-16.8B Rev, $0.38 EPS — Street now $16.5B / $0.40. *Why YES:* Server CPU demand >> supply — 30% price hikes in 2026 (Oct 5 latest). Agentic AI = 1:1 CPU:GPU vs 1:8 before. McKinsey: inference 60% of AI by 2030. DCAI est $6.46B +56.9%. *Terrafab watch:* Foundry external rev $293M, loss $2.1B (was $2.8B) — improving. 18A +25% above target. *Call: 68% BEAT — Product YES, Foundry still loss.The bulls on $ETH are really hurting this time, suffering internal injuries from the hammering! The majority of the bull army is floating a loss of as much as 81 million U, with the real money lost accounting for a full quarter of their current positions. The average cost is hanging high above 2900, indicating that most of these long positions have been stubbornly held from the peak all the way down. Despite such severe losses, they haven't been forced out yet—either they're holding on with low leverage or they're gritting their teeth and continuously adding margin into a bottomless pit. But no matter which, the deeper the price drops, the bigger the hole that needs to be filled. Once someone runs out of margin, all that awaits is forced liquidation. These stubborn longs on the market are ticking time bombs and potential sell orders; the deeper the price falls, the more blood-stained chips will be passively dumped. On the other hand, the shorts are handling it with ease, firmly positioned near their cost line without any pressure. The bulls have already lost a quarter of their principal. One more push down will trigger a stampede of queued stop-losses. At this point, if you don't short with the trend, are you going to run and become their bag holder? Just short it!【No gold or BTC in 2026, with just two months left, can they still have a final dance?】 As of October 23 this year, within the market, $BTC has dropped 7.3% year-to-date, and gold $XAU has fallen 7.5%, ranking last two among 21 major asset classes. Last year, gold rose 63.7%, but this year it has retraced steadily from the high at the beginning of the year, breaking below $4,000 on October 23; BTC has also retreated about 35% from last year's peak of $126,000. The safe-haven label does not guarantee price increases. Rising oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, the market worries the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even continue to raise them, increasing the appeal of cash and short-term bonds, putting pressure on both gold and BTC. Meanwhile, the commodity basket rose 52.5% year-to-date, and large-cap U.S. stocks increased 12.3%, indicating that funds have not fully exited the market, but the performance gap between different assets has widened. This does not mean the long-term logic of gold and BTC has failed, but it shows they are not universal short-term insurance. Going forward, attention should be paid to oil prices, interest rate expectations, and whether prices can stop falling. If inflation pressure eases and these two assets strengthen again, this pullback may only be a temporary setback; if high interest rates continue to suppress demand, a year-end rebound will not be so easy.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH at 2,320 is the most presentable illusion in today's entire market ETH current price around 2,320, down only 1% in 24 hours. Looks pretty stable, right? But if you pull out the three pipes below and take a look, none of them are connected. In the past 24 hours, ETH liquidations totaled about $44 million, 74% of which were longs, with the largest single liquidation on Binance, a $6.97 million long position directly taken out. What's more troublesome is that open interest on contracts is still above $30 billion, leverage hasn't been fully cleared. As long as the 2,300–2,400 range continues to be broken down, the next round of long liquidations can be triggered at any time. The price looks decent because the coffin hasn't been nailed shut yet. It doesn't mean the people inside are still alive. The ETF side is even quieter and harsher. Since October, the US spot ETH ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of $1.18 billion; the $832 million net inflow in September was fully given back in one month. BlackRock's ETHA alone contributed $977 million of outflows. Last week, another $221 million fled in a single week; the rebound couldn't even last a day. Institutions aren't just adjusting positions; they're leaving the table. 2,320 is not the bottom; it's just the layer of window paper that hasn't been pierced yet. The presentability is for outsiders to see; whether it leaks or not, the insiders know best. #StrategyQ3BTCGains 📅 Oct 30 AMC — Est: $17.25 EPS | $128M Rev Print: $20.9B digital gain — not cash, mark-to-market. 848k BTC @ $70.8B carrying, cost $64B. Q3 BTC +42% flips tax: +$4.1B benefit, cuts deferred tax to $1.88B. Last 4Qs: 0% beat rate. Q2 miss -$24.4 vs -$2.19 est. Why YES: Polymarket 92% beat $8.67, Est now $17.98. BTC $80k-86k EOD holds gain. #7 profit in S&P — above Meta. Call: 90% BEAT — EPS huge, but stock trades BTC, not EPS. Watch new buy + MNAV.#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ ✅Current Situation Recently, BTC spot ETF funds have been fluctuating back and forth, with inflows one day and outflows the next. The continuity of funds is very poor, with clear disagreements between bullish and bearish institutions. The funds are unstable and have not formed a sustained joint effort to support the coin price. Often, even if the ETF has net inflows, Bitcoin does not necessarily rally, showing a divergence between funds and the market. The core issue is that a single ETF buying force is insufficient to support the price alone. ✅Why are funds fluctuating? 1. Macro is the biggest source of disturbance The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index are swinging back and forth. Once the market reprices to maintain high rates for longer, institutions will choose to redeem ETFs to hedge; once rate cut expectations heat up, funds rush back in, causing repeated switching between subscriptions and redemptions. 2. Fund structure differentiation Some of the funds are arbitrage funds, not long-term allocation funds. They engage in basis arbitrage and quickly enter and exit with slight market fluctuations, amplifying fund volatility. At the same time, short-term profit-taking funds choose to take profits and redeem once there are floating gains, increasing outflow pressure. 3. Selling pressure hedges ETF buying On-chain old whales, high-level trapped positions, and selling pressure from the futures derivatives market often offset the ETF's buying power. While ETFs are buying, existing holders are selling, resulting in continuous bullish and bearish battles. 4. Cautious sentiment The market has not yet reached a full bull market consensus. Institutions dare not go all in and mostly test the waters with small positions on dips. Once the market is under pressure, they withdraw first and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #MicrosoftQ1AzureAndAI 📅 *Oct 28 AMC — Est: $90.6B Rev | $4.71 EPS | Azure 45%* Last Q BEAT: $82.9B vs $81.4B, EPS $4.27 vs $4.05, Azure 40% vs 37% guide. Now guide raised to 44-45% CC, Cloud $40.9-41.2B. *Why YES:* AI run-rate $37B +123% YoY, RPO $678B +99%, Copilot seats 2x. AI contributes >20pts to Azure growth. *Risk:* Capex >$50B this Q, $175B FY26 — market wants ROI. Miss 45% = -5% stock. Options price ±4.5%. *Call: 70% BEAT — Azure is the only number. >45% = $555 retest, <43% = $495【Capital Moves Signal Behind the US Bank Charter Amendment】 On October 24, US Bank (BAC) submitted an 8-K to the SEC (accession 0001193125-26-430566), disclosing four items: Item 3.03 (Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders), Item 5.03 (Amendments to Articles of Incorporation/Bylaws), Item 8.01 (Other Events), and Item 9.01 (Financial Statements and Exhibits). There was no Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition) nor any red-flag Item 4.02 (Non-reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements). The charter-level amendments themselves are neutral, but it is common for major banks to amend charters before issuing bonds, resetting preferred stock, or adjusting dividend policies. The value of this event for ordinary readers is not to "trade it," but to build awareness: the Item numbers in an 8-K are a clear event classifier, and when Items 3.03 and 5.03 appear simultaneously, attention should be focused on subsequent developments. What to watch next: within the next 30-60 days, whether BAC will issue follow-up announcements related to preferred stock redemption, bond issuance, or dividends. Above $80,000, retail investors are accelerating deposits while whales are quietly pulling back — this divergence is more worth watching than the price itself. On-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, retail investors' BTC deposits to Binance doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a roughly 6-month high; meanwhile, whale deposits dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decline of about 36%. Retail investors are treating the consolidation above 80k as an exit window, but whales have not shown signs of rushing to sell. $BTC is around 80,000. Weekly ETF net inflow is $442 million, ending two weeks of outflows, but ETH and SOL are bleeding during the same period — ETH outflow of $225 million, SOL outflow of $17.3 million. BTC funds have returned, but only in one direction. $ETH is around 2,320–2,340, marking the fourth consecutive week of ETF net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.18 billion in October. The price is grinding below the moving average, supported by existing holdings rather than new inflows. $SOL is around 101, with a monthly ETF cumulative outflow of about $68 million, and zero net inflow on the 24th. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, but buying pressure is temporarily absent. In short: The FOMC is very likely to hold steady this week, but PCE expectations have risen year-over-year to 3.6%. Retail investors are selling, whales are waiting, and ETF money is only flowing into BTC. For these three coins, they are all waiting for the same thing — whether inflation data will provide a decent reason. For market record only, not investment advice. #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 I now first check if the team behind a project is actually working. $BCH, as a veteran coin, also experiences significant volatility. $ETC follows the overall market; don't expect an independent trend. $FIL in the storage sector depends on real demand. I basically ignore the trade calls shouted in the group. Although researching on my own is slow, it gives me confidence. Divide your position into several parts; don't invest it all at once. Don't curse when losing, don't brag when winning. Take it slow; it's better than anything else. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
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