【在GitHub发现的预测市场白皮书,让我想到了AI的未来角色】 搜索预测市场相关技术时,找到了OracleX这份文档()。作为AI从业者,我看到了一个有趣的结合点:预测市场+AI。 当前预测市场的核心问题:① 争议解决依赖人工投票(慢、贵、易操纵);② 市场定价依赖人类判断(有限理性、情绪化);③ 信息聚合效率低。 AI可以在三个层面介入: L1-预言机层:用大语言模型自动判定事件结果。比如"OpenAI是否在2025年发布GPT-5?",AI可以实时爬取官网、新闻、社交媒体,自动裁决。OracleX白皮书提到有项目(XO Market)正在探索这个方向。 L2-定价层:AI可以作为"超级交易者",处理海量信息快速定价,提供流动性。 L3-治理层:AI辅助DAO投票,分析争议案例的历史数据,给出建议。 但风险也明显:① AI能否真正理解复杂、模糊的现实事件?② AI做市商会不会碾压人类交易者?③ AI治理会不会变成"算法独裁"? 预测市场×AI,是个值得深挖的方向。 #AI #预测市场 #智能合约#OracleX
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