The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates in October: a cold reflection behind the excitement in the crypto world. This time, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut rates. The market has priced in a probability of over 98% for a rate cut, and the consensus in the investment community has shifted from "whether" to "magnitude and pace." The expectation of easing has ignited layers of optimism in the financial markets, and naturally, crypto assets have been pushed to the forefront. The inertia in the crypto world is well-known: once the liquidity gates are loosened, mainstream coins are often the first to be favored. Assets like BTC and ETH serve as vehicles for risk-averse narratives while also accommodating the speculative impulses of new funds. On-chain data shows that the activity of large addresses has significantly increased over the past two weeks, with some long-term wallets starting to accumulate, a move often seen as a signal of institutional repositioning. However, this sign does not equate to an "immediate bull market." The market has a memory: whenever a rate cut is realized and emotional peaks occur, it often marks the moment when profit-taking begins. Whales are in action, indicating that some funds believe the price has not yet peaked; however, at the same time, the futures leverage ratio is also climbing, with open interest nearing historical highs. This structure means that once volatility reverses, the market reaction could be more severe. Retail investors need to understand not just the "ups and downs," but the layers of signals. Several aspects truly worth paying attention to can be summarized as follows— First is the policy context. The Federal Reserve's statements are more critical than the interest rates themselves. The market looks not only at the results but also at the language that reveals attitudes towards inflation, employment, and the balance sheet. A dovish or hawkish tone will immediately reflect on risk appetite. Second is the on-chain flow. Where is the new money going? Are the whale wallets accumulating or distributing? Is the net inflow of stablecoins increasing simultaneously? These indicators determine the market's "true heat." Third is the trading structure. Leverage ratios, open interest, and the long-short ratio in futures can show the concentration of market risk. Overheating often indicates that the next trough is on the way. Fourth are the sentiment indicators. Public opinion temperature, social media keywords, and Google Trends search heat sometimes reveal turning points earlier than prices do. Fifth is the macro comparison. The U.S. stock market, gold, and the dollar index serve as "mirrors" that reflect the inverse light and resonance of the crypto market. When risk assets collectively heat up, the volatility of crypto coins is often amplified. The crypto world is not short of stories; what it lacks is calmness. The movements of whales are worth observing, and the logic behind rate cuts is worth understanding, but ultimately, one must learn to discern which variables truly influence cycles amidst the flood of information and which are merely echoes of emotion.