it’s not possible to predict these things perfectly
it is possible to notice increasingly ridiculous/dangerous things which are happening and start to bet that something which you cannot predict could happen soon
this is what we spoke about on @modernmarket_: dumb dats going further and further down the risk curve, cz getting active again and aster vs hyperliquid battle, everyone becoming perps traders (a group of people who would lose their money anyway now have the chance to lose it even faster)
the takeaways:
- dats exhausted and no marginal buyer
- get out of the way of the war, you don’t need to be caught up in the crossfire
- traders are bad normally, they are going to be even worse at perps; short market at aths for insurance
that is how i constructed my thinking over the last few weeks, meant i was positioned in btc/hype (should have got out of the way more) / gold / stables / short eth (made some money here but not enough, adl)
im reminded of an important message: people move fast to make money, but not at all fast enough to protect it
hope everyone is doing okay, we go again no matter what happens
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