On-chain Short-Term Holders data shows that the market has not yet reached the peak of this cycle.
Comparing the % basis of Short-Term Holders at previous peaks:
Dec 2017: 7D: 23.5% | 30D: 79.1% | 90D: 197%
Mar 2021: 7D: 20.3% | 30D: 62.5% | 90D: 146%
Aug 2025: 7D: 2.7% | 30D: 6.9% | 90D: 15.2%
Looking at the chart "Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Change"
2017 & 2021 ATH:
Before the peaks, the STH basis index (7D/30D/90D change) rose sharply, reaching extremely high levels (100–200%). This is when short-term holders FOMO and inject new capital → the market heats up.
Currently in 2025: The 7D/30D/90D lines have only slightly increased (2.7% / 6.9% / 15.2%). There are no signs of a breakout → meaning no one has "dove in" strongly yet.
Main observations:
- It is not the peak of the cycle, as compared to history, the current indicators are still too low to be considered the final distribution phase.
- This also indicates that there is still a lot of room for growth, as the short-term holder basis does not yet reflect the massive FOMO from the crowd, meaning the market has not entered an overloaded state. Currently, this decline is just a pullback on the weekly frame.
$ETH IS KING
This Week in Crypto (08/24/25)
📊 Macro backdrop → Risk-On:
- Dollar Index (DXY) falls to 97 → weak USD signal.
- Gold peaks at $3,400+, 10Y yield holds at 4.3%, oil stabilizes around $64.
- This context often leads to a rotation into equities & crypto.
💰 Market overview:
- Market cap: $3.94T
- BTC: $112.8K, dominance 57% → making room for alt.
- ETF flows: BTC –$1.18B, ETH +$337.7M → clear rotation towards ETH + mid-caps.
- Stablecoin supply –$4.7B but USDe & DAI expand strongly while USDC contracts by ~–$5.2B.
🔗 On-chain & DEX:
- Ethereum, Solana, Base maintain central positions.
- Hyperliquid stands out: fees $25.2M/week, DEX vol $7B (+25.6%), TVL $2.3B (+9.5%) → despite the market stagnation.
- NFT volume cools down but Polygon & BNB gain market share.
💡 Prominent narratives:
- $ETH season is reinforced: ETF inflows, staking +279K ETH from whale OG.
- Hyperliquid breakout: fee +54% compared to 7D, ranking top revenue outside stablecoins.
- Stablecoins: FRNT (Wyoming state-backed) launches → a turning point for TradFi + DeFi.
- Web3 gaming: Football explodes with $440K/24h revenue, market cap quadruples in just one day.
- Solana SIMD-341: account compression reduces storage costs, scales up.
🚀 Outlook:
Base case: BTC sideways, rotation towards ETH + mid-caps.
If DXY remains weak, alt season could expand.
Risks: USD recovery or yield shock increase.
👉 Question: Will #ETH + mid-caps lead the next bull run, or will #BTC reclaim dominance?
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