The mNAV valuation system for coin stocks is like Grayscale's trust: GBTC/ETHE from the last cycle, where coins only flow in and not out. At first, the premium was very high, exceeding 150% at one point, and many people engaged in arbitrage or even leveraged trading, like the Three Swords. However, there is a six-month process, so when entering, it was still at a positive premium, but by the time it could be sold in the stock market, the premium had narrowed or even turned negative, leading to a crash. Currently, the mNAV for Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury companies is generally above 150%, also at a positive premium, selling stocks to buy coins at a positive premium. Therefore, the promotion is that as long as you hold stocks, each share holding BTC/ETH will grow. However, the liquidity in the capital market always has an end, and the next step is to collateralize Ethereum to borrow money from AAVE or MakerDAO to increase positions. Once it starts, it leads to a path of destruction. Right now, Tom Lee still seems to be in a joking mood, clearly indicating that the ammunition stock hasn't been fully committed yet, and leverage hasn't been fully utilized. After interest rate cuts, the desire for risky operations is likely to grow even more. Once the mNAV of coin stocks breaks significantly, this story will come to an end, and that will likely mark the beginning of a major bear market for this cycle. So, water friends still have a great opportunity to buy BTC and ETH at a negative premium; all that is needed is patience. The historical waltz will not repeat, but it always keeps to the rhythm.
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