So this Hyperliquid whale is down an unrealized $5.2m willingly on Lighter doing some kind of pair trading short perp being long spot that he probably holds x amount of. There's about 119 days left or ~16 weeks left to season 1 for Lighter. If @SigmaSquared_ is right and he's expecting about 3.4k points per week (which will lower as time goes on naturally) lets just estimate around ~50,000 Lighter points by November this year. Bear case $500m FDV @ $15 per point * 50k points = $750,000 airdrop Base case $1bn FDV @ $27 per point * 50k points = $1.35mm airdrop Bull case $2bn FDV @ $41 per point * 50k points = $2mm airdrop At 4bn FDV that's $80 per point * 50k points = $4mm airdrop I'm not gonna lie, if I was him I wouldn't be doing that strategy unless I thought @Lighter_xyz could be at a minimum $2bn FDV. I think because I found Lighter so early on and because it got so much hate by the Hyperliquid people that I watered down my original assumptions. Now we have the Hyperliquid whales on Lighter itself and bullposting about how everyone is thinking too small in the discord.