I think we're close enough to @Lighter_xyz TGE to calculate the possible value of one point. The market is hot, the end of the beta season is very soon, and the public mainnet season will probably be very short. Everyone calculates airdrop value based on the FDV, but in a real bull market, FDV is just a meme. What we will focus on here is only the initial mcap. As in my previous points value calculation, we won't take into account volume, as Lighter is a 0% fees platform, and I think there may be a lot of wash trading bots (they are being flagged anyway). The best metric to consider while thinking about it is OI. I was also considering calculating the value based on the TVL, but with such great LLP performance, I don't think it's good to include it (people just deposit into the vault and don't trade with this money). Hyperliquid just had another ATH of OI, and it's around $11b. Lighter's OI is at $236M. There are obviously people farming it, who may leave after the first points season, but Lighter is still in its closed BETA, and I still see many people asking for an invite code on Twitter (you will probably see them in the comment section of this tweet as well), so I think it's safe to assume this amount as the organic OI Lighter generates. The CEO of Lighter mentioned on one space (if I remember correctly) that they want to give 50% to the community through an airdrop, though I don't expect it to be only for the season 1 activity. I would expect them to airdrop between 25-30% of the supply. What's more important is that I don't think any other form of supply will be released on day 1 of TGE. It means that the rest of the tokens aside from the airdropped ones will be locked/vested and won't be counted at the beginning in the mcap. The Hyperliquid airdrop was special, and I don't think Lighter will be even close to that, but let's stay realistic: the perps space is big enough for more than one protocol. HL airdropped $16.2b to its users at the current price. If we try to calculate the value of the Lighter airdrop based only on the OI, it would give us a $350m airdrop from Lighter. Though Hyperliquid is quite different from anything else. The first protocol in the space to do it in the correct way for its users. Hyperliquid is also a chain on its own, but I don't think this plays a crucial part in the price of $HYPE, as it mostly comes from the perps exchange. People are trading Lighter points for $5, and we will have around 10m points in total. If I'm right and 100% of circulating supply at TGE goes for an airdrop, it means that people price Lighter's mcap at $50m, which means that it would sit at place 741 on Coingecko and be worth less than many useless protocols. The Lighter team isn't random. Those guys are from top universities and are locked in. That's what built my conviction to farm HL at the beginning of my journey with perps. That being said - I think Lighter points will be worth around $15-$20 at the beginning, going as high as $100 if the market doesn't stop its bull run, giving Lighter a mcap similar to Sonic or Virtuals. Do you think fund managers will fade exposure for one of the top perps platforms in the emerging markets after seeing Hyperliquid's success? Higher.