It's time I owned up to this. All in all good week despite being openly wrong about this.
Invalidated the bear idea at 112k but only longed for a scalp to the initial pop to 117k. Given the entry was so late I already cut it.
Short bonk and fart worked well, and flipped long on fart after the pump fun nuke. Out now though on fart.
The same technical view remains however market structure shifted in favor of bulls. We want to keep above 112/110, and invalidated with closes below 105. HTF target for this year is 150k. I was of the opinion that it would happen in Q4 after a blow off in June to 120k. After the move to 120k in June had a view a choppy to down Q3 but appetite for BTC is growing through treasury companies. Can see ETF inflows data for this.
Essentially this move to 120 was what I was looking to happen in June, only now it happened in July.
To all my chirpers: I appreciate your engagement. I see it. I read it. But I enjoy the pain. How dare you chirp me when I'm not able to respond while skiing on a mountain. I considered the short SOL HYPE (took Ls on this) ideas as mid term plays for a chop summer. Go back to my tweets from April. I don't see any "thank you for calling a macro low" tweets from my chirpers. Why?
Since the chirping hurts me I've decided that all my trade ideas will cost you $100 fartcoin per month effective immediately. On an annual plan it will only be $700 fartcoin per year.
Dm for lighter invite link. 2 left. Fuck you.
Going to be OOO this week but here's my thoughts on why I still lean bear.
I'll start with the bullish arguments:
1. BBB is liquidity positive, arguably one of the biggest injections since COVID and inflation reduction act
2. 110k sell wall bulls ate through
3. People are shorting with leverage
4. Those who missed April lows want to buy every single dip for the breakout
5. Dovish fed chair coming
So why aren't we at 120k-130k on $BTC? That's my question. We've been chopping. And these days it doesn't take that long to price in good news - the market is fast.
Bearish arguments:
1. Whales selling spot into positive news and we still have resting asks above at 112-115
2. We have really good news but why aren't we breaking out?
3. Instead of momentum we have chop outside of a select few names - BONK or ARB were good trades.
4. Macro data could be weak in Q3
5. Inverse TACO Trump (this is his last window to bark at other countries given market at ATH and clock is ticking for mid term election chart painting)
From a technical perspective bears need to defend 112k breakout and for the bulls loss of 105k I think would be confirmation to bail out on breakout idea.
All in all - despite all my bear posting I believe $500k is inevitable but I'm thinking locally why the good news is being sold into which gives us a window of July-Aug weakness.
5.38K
35
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.