Why Jupiter's JLP premium is cooked:
As many of you know from past posts and livestreams, I was a huge advocate for JLP.
Here are the reasons why I'm rotating out of it and where I'm reallocating that liquidity:
1/ Failed to build a perps product that hit escape velocity and appealed to traders/users.
The UI is not great compared to now new existing alternatives; the last main airdrop allocation to traders using the perp product was poor.
We can see this backed by the fact that the entire product currently has only ~$400M in OI.
This may sound like a lot, but for context, the OI of just FARTCOIN on Hyperliquid is ~$270M, and on bigger pairs like BTC, it's ~$2.9B.
Less trading/OI = less fees to the Jup perps platform = less fees to JLP holders, thus why the APY return is now in the negative.
2/ Current weighting isn't ideal at this stage in the market.
SOL = ~47%, ETH =~8%, BTC = ~14%, USDC = ~31%, USDT = 0.01%. TLDR: very high SOL and USDC weighting.
If I want SOL exposure, I either just hold SOL or borrow it against something correlated to it like BTC.
I would like the BTC exposure for JLP to be at least 30% from its current 14%.
Stables can be more productive by depositing them in things like Openeden or Level.
Or deposited into a vault in a tokenless perps protocol like Paradex and Lighter, where I can farm yield and easy "passive points."
3/ Opportunity costs + lack of future catalysts.
Makes more sense to do a few clicks + get exposure to airdrops on new protocols than holding onto $JLP.
There's no Jupiter Season 3 (Jupuary) in sight.
Even if there were, based on how S2 went, users are unlikely to bother farming JUP perps again when they could be doing HyperEVM or other tokenless perp DEXs like Extended, Paradex, Lighter, Ostium, Variational, etc.
For all the reasons mentioned, I think it's unlikely that a sudden rebound in Jup perps volume and OI will happen anytime soon and is more likely to keep bleeding from here.
Post inspired by @katexbt's posts from around a week ago.
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