$CRV - Macro / HTF Picture
To add to the top down I posted yesterday ...
For those that are accumulating for the longer term, know that this thread below are my short to perhaps medium term thoughts based on raw price action.
If I were to chart CRV with the longer term / big picture in mind I'd view it as follows:
- Macro range established between 1.0570 and 6.8
- Midrange coming in at 3.9285
- Assuming we are in an accumulation phase since Mid 2022, a weekly reclaim of Range Low would be the trigger, where we would assume we are perhaps transitioning from Accumulation -> Markup.
I'm not endorsing a buy and hold here and saying that we're going back to Range High. It's just important to know what market phase we are in based on current data and to position yourself that aligns with your time horizon, risk appetite and so on ...
So with the two posts together, I'd view it as an opportunity if we sweep those vulnerable monthly lows into .34 and reclaim, as the context would tell me that we're being offered discount within an assumed accumulation phase, that would have me holding until *at least* mid-range of the larger macro range and potentially new ATHs. That would be solid R:R coupled with the lower timeframe trigger to minimise risk (said reclaim of .34 after the sweep). But I still don't know if we get it. You might think these prices are cheap enough given the context and view .34 simply as a bonus opportunity .... Just wanted to ensure I was painting the full picture for everyone. Downside risk exists zooming in, but zooming way out, this is price action *within* assumed accumulation ...
GL

$CRV - Top Down
Monthly
- We had a deviation below the 2020 lows last year from June to October, with expansion back above during the election rally from November - December.
- I will assume the deviation below the 2020 lows and reclaim is iron support and therefore any re-test should hold.
- The 2025 price action for CRV has been pretty underwhelming. December closed with a large wick to the upside and January re-tested near 50% of said wick, following with a strong move to the downside, testing the .886 fib retrace level. We have since been ranging.
Given the current monthly structure, I cannot confidently say the lows at .34 and .39 are safe because of the currently monthly three candle structure and the likelihood of us closing the month through a fair value gap.
Does this mean I'm bearish on CRV from a monthly perspective? No. I think if we are in a macro accumulation phase for alts and the likes of CRV that has the stable coin narrative behind it, it is perhaps "cheap" here if you have a 6 month time horizon. When price is ranging or in an accumulation phase, deep retracements are to be expected, until we enter markup and expand from these levels. I'm not the account to convince you to buy and hold CRV here based on fundamentals - I'm simply looking at raw technicals. We could be forming a higher low here - but from the monthly pov and the reasons above, I think the lows are not safe yet. I would look at this as opportunity if said lows get run, however.

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