Market leaders are pricing in the reality of the alt market.
> Consensus picks $HYPE, $SYRUP, others (?), recently set new ATHs despite BTC ranging, ETH and SOL at Q1 2024 levels, and most alts -80% YTD 💀
We've seen shades of this in prior cycles. It can surprise you quickly.
2018 Lore: Nervous Outperformance
This is one of those trades that's seared into my brain.
Anyone that was long crypto in 2018 remembers exactly where they were the day BTC broke the $6K support. I was visiting family and irresponsibly long XLM.
We were so far into the bear market that BTC had basically flatlined. The $6K support was almost a year old and BTC had traded in a range of only +/- 4% for two months. The more BTC flattened, the stronger XLM got.
And then one day, everything failed.
30 days of nonstop pain.
BTC: $6.2K -> $3.2K
XLM: $0.28 -> $0.09 (eventually $0.025)
We're in a weird cycle. It's hard to say whether BTC is bearish or just taking a breather, but we can confidently say that that altcoins are not bullish.
We do not want to see continued outperformance in a small number of alts while BTC, ETH, and rest of market struggle. If history rhymes, this is a bad omen.
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