Nick is starting to let off the beaten lines again, and the message of this post is that the Fed will stay on the sidelines if inflation rises this summer, but the Fed may cut interest rates earlier if employment slows. So if you think about it all the other way around, if the final tariff war doesn't make prices rise, wouldn't it be okay to cut interest rates, after all, the two days of intensive articles have been expressing the meaning that the late cut and the tariffs may not lead to higher inflation. But if you go deeper, the recent price failure to rise may be caused by the tariff war that caused merchants to stock up and hoard inventory in advance, and there is still a possibility that it will rise when the inventory is exhausted.
Obedient and listening, this is actually paving the way for an early interest rate cut or a hedge against the market's widely expected interest rate cut expectations in September, after all, there are still three months, which is a bit long. The market needs some shot in the arm to get through this difficult three months. And the tariff war didn't actually last long, and there was enough redundancy for market elasticity to absorb it.
So whether he just paints a big pie or reveals it in advance, this is the overall good news that conveys that interest rate cuts may be advanced.
If prices shoot up this summer, the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines for longer. Labor would have to convincingly sputter to prompt cuts.
But if an anticipated tariff-driven price punch turns out to be a damp squib, earlier cuts are possible.
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