Are 👀 you still shorting every token unlock?
According to the @TraderNoah's token unlock table, we can see that the peak unlocking time falls in 2026-2027, unlocking about $400 million in tokens per month, after which it will gradually decline.
Tokens to be unlocked: $DRIFT $ENA $ETHFI $HYPE $JTO $JUP $KMNO $L 3 $MORPHO $PYTH $TENSOR $W $ZRO
@TraderNoah view is that unless more than $500 million in liquidity is used, it may be difficult to influence market prices. If the market is illiquid or over-the-counter trading is used, the impact on the price after unlocking will be difficult to predict 🧐
We all know that when a token is to be unlocked in large amounts, there is a general expectation of a decline (especially for overvalued tokens), but if the actual performance (fundamentals) of the token is good, the downward pressure on the price caused by unlocking may be reduced 🙌
The liquidity of the market and the fundamentals of the token are key, so pay more attention when investing!
@TraderNoah vision of the future
👉 The future price of the token will be similar to the value of the stock, and may fluctuate
👉 Sweeping spree doesn't necessarily determine the price, unless you can come up with more than $500 million in cash
👉 Unlocking does not necessarily affect the price, and requires sufficient liquidity and over-the-counter trading
👉 Unlocking will bring down the higher-valued tokens, but if they perform better than expected, there is an opportunity to reduce the selling pressure
👉 Unlocking has a greater impact on a single token, and it will also affect tokens in the same sector, and tokens that fall by 50% are more attractive to investors
Details can be found 👇 in Tweets
Some thoughts on the future:
1. token fundamental multiples will converge to equity +/- some arbitrary threshold
2. the most aggressive purchasers of tokens are least likely to be the ones determining price unless they're moving $500mm+ liquid aum
3. unlocks are hard to price in to markets without liquid perps and otc trading
4. unlocks are a headwind to overpriced token, but can be overcome by fundamental outperformance of expectations
5. unlocks are most negative for the individual token, but also negative for substitute token prices. The token that gets sold off 50% from an unlock is now marginally more attractive for investors, and they will deploy their marginal dollars into it as a consequence
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