After the tariff war ends, what will happen to the market in the short, medium and long term?
Today, Powell said that interest rates will not fall soon, which means that the possibility of interest rate cuts in recent months is still unlikely, the data shows that the number of interest rate cuts will be within 2 times during the year, and the probability is concentrated after September, depending on the changes in CPI data and employment, therefore, the Fed will not have a great impact on the market in the short term.
What we really have to look at in the short term is to look at Trump's mouth, tariffs, social media remarks, monetary policy intervention, tax supervision, etc. are all ways for him to influence the market, and normal people are not easy to perceive his brain circuit in advance, so the short-term trend is relatively random in the near future, and most of the short-term will not be too comfortable.
In the long run, the global M2 money supply hit a new high at the beginning of this year, which is the root of Bitcoin's rise, so the long-term trend should be stable and good, especially Bitcoin's trend tends to be slower than the 90-day rise in M2 currency data, and long-term holders continue to hold it.
Bitcoin now has a hedging effect, and in the future, it will be the same as gold, cyclically stronger, but the growth will be better than gold, and the risk will be greater than gold, which comes from its easy liquidity characteristics.
As for the middle band, that's what we're looking at.
Bitcoin has rebounded in a wave, and the rebound momentum has exceeded most people's expectations, and the same is true for Ethereum, the callback time of the pie below 100,000 is about 3 months, this callback time is a bit short, and the turnover is not so sufficient, especially for those who withdraw coins to the wallet, the cleaning is not clean enough. But since this wave of rebound is so strong and can stabilize 100,000, the probability of going to a new high in the future is increasing, and it will be adjusted to 90,000 and then rushed or directly in this week or two, the former will be higher in height, and the latter will come back if it does not break through 12.
Many people don't understand why the market can rise so fast without much increment, because the market size has been increasing, and there are fewer and fewer tokens in circulation, resulting in stronger purchasing power in demand, so the near-term risk will appear after the new high, and the current is still a safe period within the scope of speculation.
As for Ethereum and SOL, the fundamentals of Ethereum have not changed much, and they are still in the category of over-falling rebound, and there is still some room for ETH/BTC to rebound, so 3000 is still expected. Whether SOL can continue to go up depends on whether the PVP money-making effect on the chain can come back, everyone understands that it may take some time for the super golden dog to come out again, and there is a high probability that it will be a linkage market.
About #Binance BNB also wants to mention that the current 600 platform was created in 2021 by the last bull market, and it has not broken through, and after 4 years, Bitcoin has risen from 69,000 to 110,000, and the price of BNB has almost not changed, but if you count the "pig's knuckle rice" income that everyone gets every year, the actual value should completely keep up with or even exceed the increase in Bitcoin. So in the future, the price is likely to continue to be solid, converging with publicly traded companies like Coinbase or Microstrategy, keeping up with the state of the market itself.
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