#US10YearYieldBreaks5%
About US10YearYieldBreaks5%
The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.01% on Sept 14, first above 5% since October 2023, then pulled back to 4.97%-4.98%. Converging pressures: oil above $100 lifting inflation expectations, rising Fed hike odds, fiscal and Treasury supply, AI financing demand, and rising term premium. At 5%, risk-free rates raise equity and corporate borrowing costs and could pressure high-beta assets. BTC held up. Key watch: real yields, oil, and whether the Fed signals higher-for-longer.
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The 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%, with two narratives lingering in the market: "A brief peak in 2023 style" or "A 2000s-style financial crisis trigger"
Original author: Zhao Ying
Original source: Wallstreetcn
The US 10-year Treasury yield, serving as the benchmark for trillions of dollars in global assets, surged to 5% due to the impact of the Iran war, widely regarded as a worrying critical threshold. Apart from briefly rising to 5% in 2023, the last time the 10-year Treasury yield hovered above 5% was on the eve of the global financial crisis.
Overnight, the 10-year US Treasury yield intraday briefly rose to 5.012%, the highest intraday level
$BTC is facing a very different test this week.
The Fed is expected to make its policy decision while oil prices have surged above $100 and Treasury yields have moved higher.
That's not exactly the perfect environment for risk assets.
And yet Bitcoin is still holding around the upper-$70K area.
That's what I'm watching.
Not whether someone predicts $80K or $70K.
I want to see how BTC behaves when the macro environment becomes uncomfortable.
If Bitcoin can absorb stronger yields, a stronger dollar and geopolitical pressure without completely losing its structure, that's meaningful.
The reaction matters more than the headline.
#US10YearYieldBreaks5% #RobinhoodTokenNewRights #US10YearYieldBreaks5%
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.01% on Sept 14, crossing 5% for the first time since Oct 2023 and reaching its highest intraday level since July 2007.
It started the year near 4.15%. Nine months later, that is about +86bps. The pressure is not from one source:
· Oil above $100 is keeping energy-driven inflation pressure alive
· Headline CPI held at 3.4%, while core rose 0.3% MoM
· Markets now price around 89%-90% odds of a 25bps Fed hike on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023 if delivered
· Treasury supply remains heavy, while AI-driven corporate debt issuance is competing for capital
· The NY Fed's ACM term premium model is back in positive territory, meaning investors are demanding extra return to hold long-duration paper
· Markets are also pricing a possible BoJ hike to 1.25% this week, while the ECB remains hawkish
The whole curve is repricing: 30-year yields are around 5.35%, while the 2-year sits near 4.66%.
At 5% risk-free, the calculus shifts. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage benchmark is at 6.76%. Equity models run with a higher discount rate. Corporate borrowing costs rise. Capital that once had to chase yield now has a simpler alternative.
The interesting part is BTC. Around $77K-$78K today, it is roughly flat while equities fell. Gold also pulled back. That divergence is worth watching, but it still needs confirmation.
The real event risk is not just the yield print. It is Wednesday's updated dot plot. June's median dot implied one hike for 2026. If September shows two, or if Chair Warsh signals higher-for-longer at the press conference, the 5% handle could get stickier.
Is 5% a temporary pressure point for BTC, or the start of a new macro ceiling?
#US10YearYieldBreaks5%
The Federal Reserve now holds a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds maturing in the next 10–15 years
The real data worth looking at is not how much debt the Fed has bought, but that it is changing the pricing logic of the U.S. Treasury market. Under normal circumstances, long-term Treasury yields should be determined more by market supply and demand, inflation expectations, and economic growth. But when the central bank holds a large amount of bonds long-term, the impact left by QE does not disappear immediately. Simply put, current long-term interest rates are not entirely set by the free mark
$BTC is facing a strange macro setup. Oil just jumped to ~$107 and US 10Y yields moved above 5% — yet BTC is still holding near $77K. Markets now price ~93% odds of a Fed hike tomorrow. If BTC absorbs this pressure, that could be more important than another short-term pump.
i do think the fed will hike 25 bps weds, BUT I think the odds are pretty mis-priced currently (i.e., it is closer to 50/50 than 95/5).
core CPI was indeed a touch hot but, but largely driven by core services and within that 1) an AT&T plan pricing change + 2) airfares up (w/ some oil px flow through).
not unbelievable to explain some of these factors away;
core CPI inflation is the lowest it's been since 2021.
but now warsh in a hard spot as the market has moved quite a bit
if they hike ppl will say Fed kowtowing to The Market. if they don't ppl will say kowtowing to Trump. "Independence" will be a topic either way
anyways, less than ideal spot to be in... ...
