Trading Moment: The market has entered a phase of shrinking volume and volatility, and Hayes bets on BTC to rise to $110,000

1. Market watch

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

The BSC ecosystem and the Solana ecosystem continue to compete for on-chain popularity, and CZ began to promote ecological projects, using BNB to go long mubarak on APX Finance. As a result, APX and mubarak soared. It is worth noting that Wintermute may become a market maker for the BSC-based meme coin mubarak, withdrawing a total of 6.04 million tokens from Gate in the past four days.

The Solana ecosystem can't sit still, and Moonshot has quietly launched three new MEME tokens, TITCOIN, FAT, and ROUTINE, which have not moved for a long time. Trump shouted TRUMP and complained that his portrait was too ugly, and then the Downald token appeared on the Solana chain, with a market cap of about $14.5 million. Bitcoin ended last week on a positive note, closing at around $86,000, but market views remain divided. In terms of the short-term outlook, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, pointed out over the weekend that $85,000 would be a key psychological threshold, and if the closing price of the week fails to break through this level, bitcoin prices could face further downward pressure next week. In terms of the medium-term outlook, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offered a "rise and then fall" view, expecting bitcoin to test $110,000 first before recovering to $76,500. However, trader Eugene said that the market has entered the fifth stage, which is characterized by long losses, currency price consolidation, and shrinking volume and volatility. At this stage, some of the stronger altcoins have reached the bottom, but it is still uncertain if the bottom has been reached for most assets.

Regulatory developments have also been in the spotlight, with Senator Cynthia Lummis' Bitcoin Act of 2025 calling for the U.S. to receive 1 million bitcoins over five years, or about 5% of the total supply. Thursday's SEC chairman's eligibility hearing is worth keeping an eye on, and it may involve cryptocurrency-related content. Matthew Sigel, director of digital asset research at VanEck, mentioned that Bloomberg legal analysts see a 30% chance that the federal government will buy bitcoin this year.

At the macroeconomic level, the market is keeping a close eye on a number of key indicators. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stressed that consumer confidence, Q4 GDP, jobless claims, and upcoming PCE inflation data will all influence the Fed's decision to cut interest rates. At its March 18-19 meeting, the Fed signaled that it would ignore short-term inflationary pressures to lay the groundwork for possible future easing. Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, said global tariff concerns will continue to weigh on markets until tariff-related issues are resolved between April 2 and July.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on 24 March)

• Bitcoin: $86,928.38 (-7.13% for the year), daily spot trading volume of $17.58 billion

• Ethereum: $2,050.00 (-38.54% for the year), daily spot trading volume of $9.255 billion

• Fear of Greed: 45 (neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC 1.47 sat/vB, ETH 0.43 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 60.7%, ETH 8.7%

• Upbit's 24-hour trading volume rankings: AUCTION, XRP, W, ZETA, BTC

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 1.0496

• Sector gains: AI up 5.57%, DePIN up 4.73%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 81,306 people around the world were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $169 million, including $58.17 million in BTC and $25.23 million in ETH

3. ETF flow (EST as of March 21)

• Bitcoin ETF: $83.09 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$18.63 million

4. Today's outlook

• Arcium, a confidential computing network, will launch a community round on CoinList with a total token supply of 1 billion (SPL standard)

• Berachain officially launched PoL (Proof of Liquidity), governance enters the first phase, the incentive mechanism will begin to take effect, and the new reward pool will be emitted

• Sky Governance Cuts Sky Savings Rate to 4.5%

• Binance and Huobi HTX list Nillion (NIL) spot trading pair

• Babylon Genesis Pre-Launch Meetup: Taipei (feat. Zeus Network) will take place on Mar 24, 2025

• Bithumb intends to terminate trading support for Bitcoin Gold (BTG) and VALOR tokens

Today's top 500 gainers by market capitalization:BugsCoin (BGSC) up 36.16%, Mubarak up 26.52%, Ankr (ANKR) up 25.43%, SPX6900 up 23.01%, StormX (STMX) up 22.63%

5. Hot news

• Preview of the week | Walrus plans to launch mainnet; The Berachain Foundation will launch PoL on March 24, and governance will enter the first phase

• This week's macro outlook: the market expects the Fed to be more dovish, and stagflation doubts still need to be solved

• Data: ALT, VENOM, YGG and other tokens will usher in large unlocks, of which ALT unlocks are worth about $9.8 million

• Michael Saylor once again released information about Bitcoin Tracker, and may disclose the increase data next week

• GoPlus: All frozen funds have been transferred to the company's account and a "buyback program" has been launched

• Analyst: BUSD used to be the third-largest stablecoin by market capitalization, and the current market capitalization on the Ethereum chain is only about $50 million

• Wintermute may have become a market maker for the meme coin mubarak

• It is suspected that Binance Wallet employees made a profit of more than $110,000 by trading UUU on the BSC chain

• Movement: MoveDrop will launch in April

• Trader Eugene: Stronger altcoins have reached the bottom, but it is still unclear whether the bottom will be there for most assets

• Data: US Bitcoin ETFs bought 8,775 BTC this week, and miners produced only 3,150 BTC

• Open House Group, a listed Japanese real estate company, announced that it will accept XRP, SOL and DOGE payments

• Analysis: Bitcoin momentum shows short-term potential, but remains bearish for the long term due to low trading volumes