A thought regarding flows onchain as we enter an accelerated phase of this bull mkt
At multiple points in 2017, Litecoin saw a series of spectacular pumps. At the time, I was less experienced and I only realized in retrospect that these pumps were quite predictable.
When BTC would experience a large impulse move and txn fees went through the roof, it became impractical to use. People would (temporarily) buy LTC, indiscriminate of price on centralized exchanges to move value around more quickly and inexpensively than they could with BTC. These substantial inflows of $$$ into LTC would take place 1-48 hours into prolonged periods of high network utilization.
While ETH mainnet has scaled considerably, lower fees and more reliable execution are enjoyed during periods of low/normal utilization, while we are still likely to see periods of very high gas spikes during acute bull moments (eth's been asleep for 2+ years, easy to forget). Eth gas is like $/mwh price in wholesale electricity markets. Even if a market has plenty of peaker capacity, you still get a few days a year where prices are 10-100x what they'd normally be, with some crazy local maxima.
While it's tempting to assume that commerce will just shift to L2s, SOL will be a clear and major beneficiary in these high stress moments for ETH mainnet. SOL has its own economy (most other L2s have "fake" economies propped up by VCs and other sponsors)... SOL also has a variety of redundant/equivalent applications to those serving EVM. Expect large movement in value and attention to Solana following moments of peak utilization on ETH.
I expect SOL's onchain economy to be highly responsive in the hours and days following extreme ETH gas prices (minimum 25 gwei sustained). In the same respect, expect a portion of flows and attention to pull out of SOL as conditions subside (violently in many cases).
Obviously all of crypto pumps in sympathy with longer-term trends in BTC and crypto market caps... but I think there will be moments where SOL sees a few of the same intense pumps/retraces that LTC did in response to Bitcoin network conditions throughout 2017.
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