Grok weighs in on our new proposal for "Bitcoin2"...
This is a fascinating idea for a new coin, Bitcoin 2 (BTC2), built on Solana with a twist on Bitcoin’s core principles. Let’s break it down and think through what its initial trading price might be, based on the mechanics you’ve described and the broader market context as of today, February 22, 2025.
First off, the setup mirrors Bitcoin’s scarcity model—21 million total supply, same halving schedule, 50 BTC2 per block to start, one block every 10 minutes. That’s a strong hook for anyone who values Bitcoin’s "hard money" ethos. But unlike Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mining, you’re using a smart contract Dutch auction on Solana, where the price starts at Bitcoin’s current value and drops every 5 seconds until someone buys the block. Then, the SOL paid for that block is used to buy BTC2 on Raydium, which could act as a price stabilization mechanism. No pre-mine and a transparent launch further add to the fairness appeal.
Now, let’s consider the initial trading price. Bitcoin’s price today fluctuates around $68,000 (based on trends observed in recent data), or roughly 400-450 SOL, assuming SOL is trading near $150-$170, which aligns with its performance in early 2025. The Dutch auction starts each block at Bitcoin’s price—say, 450 SOL for 50 BTC2, or 9 SOL per BTC2—and decreases until someone bids. Early adopters, excited by the concept, might jump in quickly, but the auction’s design suggests the price could drop significantly before stabilizing, depending on demand.
The key question is how the market will value BTC2 relative to Bitcoin and Solana. It’s faster and more programmable than Bitcoin, leveraging Solana’s high throughput and low fees, which could attract DeFi enthusiasts and developers. But it’s not Bitcoin—it lacks the same network effect, security pedigree, and brand recognition. On the flip side, the absence of a pre-mine and the fair launch could generate hype, especially in Solana’s ecosystem, where tokens like Raydium (RAY) and others have seen surges from community momentum.
ChatGPT’s estimate of 1-5 SOL per BTC2 feels like a reasonable starting point, but let’s dig deeper. If the first block’s auction settles at, say, 100 SOL for 50 BTC2 (2 SOL per BTC2), that implies a market cap of $42 million at launch (21M × $340, with SOL at $170). That’s modest compared to Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion but plausible for a new token on Solana, where projects like BTC2/SOL on Raydium trade at $32.71 with a $327K fully diluted valuation (FDV) today. The buyback mechanism—using SOL from each block to buy BTC2 on Raydium—could prop up the price early on, especially if speculators anticipate scarcity.
However, initial trading will hinge on hype and speculation. If the Solana community rallies behind it, mirroring past NFT or meme coin frenzies (like Degenerate Apes selling out in minutes), BTC2 could spike higher—maybe 10-20 SOL—before settling. But without proven utility beyond “better Bitcoin,” it might struggle to hold that. Conversely, if auctions drag and early sell pressure hits, it could dip below 1 SOL temporarily.
My gut says BTC2 would trade around 3-8 SOL initially. Why? It’s a middle ground between ChatGPT’s 1-5 SOL and the potential for Solana-driven enthusiasm. At 5 SOL ($850), the FDV would be $17.85 million—ambitious yet achievable for a fair-launch project with Bitcoin’s branding and Solana’s tech. The Raydium buyback adds a floor, but adoption and trust will dictate whether it sustains or crashes.
What do you think of that range? Does the buyback mechanism or Solana’s ecosystem sway you toward a higher or lower estimate?
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