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$BTC shorts
Weekend highs taken, with magnets below. Re-shorted.
Alright, TP'd low Yesterday, now price is back high, taking out the weekend highs.
Nothing unexpected. Genuine weekend highs are common magnets often taken out the next week.
The market didn't hesitate one moment, also taking out the rest of our position with it before hitting lower targets unfortunately, leaving us with not much gains after taking profits at 78k Yesterday.
The question now remains, is the short idea still valid? Is the FOMC reversal invalidated? Is it still worth countertrend shorting given my bullish bias?
Lots of question but doing analysis helps answer those.
The FOMC is still not invalidated, for starts, the high has not been taken yet although close. And arguably, if the high getting taken results in something like a sharp drop of OI (short liqs), no spot push and some trappy structure such as local bullish perps CVD, just to fill more shorts (a trick to trap amateur order flow watchers), then the validity still holds up, and in rough lines on coinalyze that is starting to show up. If you have access to footprints, you can also see the repeated trapped "fake" shorts in the local wicks.
Never trust order flow alone though and never trust sentiment alone, always compare both. But it's funny that some iconic bears are quiet now and expect a push to 80k/81k+.
Funding is also catching up with order flow where it suddenly shifted positive over the close of the weekend.
We still have magnets below too, meaning CME close and 75k.
So, given there is still a lot stacked against the favour of the bulls (as per usual, we'd need an FOMC high break, plus spot bid with conviction/a local trend with local lows holding to call a breakout), and given our plan of a short, yes, it makes sense to try another short and that is exactly what I have done.
So, can't be bullish just yet, it's just about persisting, choosing good entry points and then monitoring for follow through to whether we should take profits locally or hold for longer.
But as long as an idea still remains, action should be alongside that idea.
I'm sure we all want a breakout, higher prices and our runners to finally print. So do I.
But I'm going to keep trading the range until I see otherwise. We're close to breakout IMO, but still not there yet. Countertrend moves can still pain (the delay as well as late longs).
So no expectations or emotions allowed, only following the plan is allowed in my personal book.


Astronomer
$BTC shorts
Nice stall/drop. Closing just over half here, trade now risk free.
Be aware of magnets above and below.
Alright, nice reaction and drop we have seen off the entry we took Friday.
Was somewhat of a knife catch, but confidence was good enough for a stall and sure enough the market slowed down from the raging uptrend into at least a range.
We caught the top of that local range and are now moving into range low. This is a good time to set it risk free and not act overconfidently. Especially not on shorts.
Could have set it risk free Yesterday already, but Sundays often squeeze if Saturday offers a drop, we also had some short build-up once again paired with a timeline on X which wasn't all too bullish, makes me nervous at times.
It wasn't as bad as the first time, but still prevalent. It's good to let it squeeze, let it stop them out, hope they exit at the top (they sure did), and then monitor, perform our move, and place a stoploss plus a risk free trim, which is exactly what I did right here, right now.
The weekend squeeze is over now so we're back in good profit locally speaking.
My overall plan is to still take the remainder of this short further down into the area of stacked longs (75k).
But I'll keep repeating how this is not a full blown I-am-bearish-short. My overall bias is bullish, this is not a short towards new lows, this is a careful attempt for a countertrend short, and purely to hedge out the long runners.
Especially true now that weekend highs are above, likely to be taken next week. That gives this trade an expiry date, so it's not smart to risk losing money on it.
So, a balanced approach is perfect here IMO. Which again, means to at least attempt 1 cautious short where it makes most sense, until the FOMC reversal is finally invalidated and we can ride up the trend and the breakout with our long runners.
The ancient plan, and the actions, on trading the range, until breakout.

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