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Katie_OKX
#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook Fed minutes drop at 2pm ET today and the setup is genuinely mixed 👀
September ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 — cooler than expected. But the prices index rose to 74.0, which is hot. So activity is slowing but pricing power isn't, which is exactly the kind of confusing signal that divides the FOMC 📊
US payrolls added just 29,000 in September. Unemployment at 4.2%. That's weak enough to justify a pause, but not weak enough to panic about a recession. The Goldilocks zone for "maybe one more hike" 🤔
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly already said further hikes depend on whether inflation pressures fade or persist. Translation: the Committee is genuinely split on whether to move again 🫠
The minutes will show how officials were actually thinking when they hiked last month. Were they hawkish on inflation? Worried about financial conditions? Concerned about the economy slowing? The nuance matters because it decides October odds 📈
Weak jobs, easing services activity, but sticky prices — does the Fed pivot toward a pause, or does one more hike still happen? 👇
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