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Aroosa Rehman
[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
My inbox exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh, with CPI settled, will there still be a rate hike in September?$ETH
Pharaoh says directly, CPI met expectations, the door to a September rate hike is half closed but not locked yet. The data on August 12 was indeed stable: year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.5%, all hitting the target. Coupled with negative non-farm payroll growth, the market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike to 42%-48%.
There are two key points hidden in the data: energy prices fell for the second consecutive month, acting as ballast, but housing costs still contributed two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase. This "inflation nail" can't be pulled out, so the Federal Reserve doesn't dare to fully ease.#CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid
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