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ruminium
I'm super bullish on memory stocks because I believe the supply constraints will last until 2028... especially after recent commentary from CEOs of $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META, $SKHY, $MU, $SAMSUNG and others. These memory companies are trading at 3-5x NTM EPS (not including cash)... I understand that we might see peak earnings in the next 12-18 months.. but here's why that's okay... 1) these companies are signing LTAs with their biggest customers... this locks in price floors, visibility and certainty 2) even if earnings peak in the next 12-18 months, I don't think prices collapse because... even while more capacity starts coming into the market in late 2027 or 2028... I believe demand will still be growing faster than supply 3) even if net income for these memory companies only grows at 10% per year from 2027 through 2030 (4 years)... these companies will be generating insane piles of cash which means they'll be able to return capital to shareholders through quarterly dividends, special dividends and stock buybacks... if a company grows net income at 10-12% per year for 4 years... while buying back 15% of their float every year... it means EPS is growing at a 30% CAGR for those 4 years... which seems pretty amazing while these companies are trading at 3-5x NTM EPS (current prices not including cash)... it's more like 2-4x NTM EPS at current prices when including cash. If you listen to Jassy last night (CEO of $AMZN) ... the capex into ai infrastrucuture is not slowing down anytime soon because they're seeing a big, fast payback on their capex spending. CEOs of $GOOG and $MSFT said similar things. I believe capex spending across the hyperscalers will exceed $1 trillion next year and could reach $1.2 trillion. $AMZN says they see a path to AWS doing $1 trillion in annual revenues... in order for that to happen they'd have to spend at least another $2-3 trillion in capex. NFA. DYOR. *We are long Hynix, SK Square, Micron and Kioxia @FirstWaveFund #DailyOrbit

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