蜡币小鑫
蜡币小鑫
币圈资深老韭菜，涉及币圈多个领域，长期持有 #BTC#ETH#OKB X博主：https://twitter.com/zhuanfgghjnb
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Got obsessed with $Marscoin, dreaming about $Marscoin at night
breaking new highs
Since Marscoin got listed on Binance, it has dropped threefold, really stuck in a tough spot, but haven't sold at a loss yet
After a half-month shakeout, it’s starting to steadily rise, this time it must rocket to Mars
When the market comes, you have to act boldly
Just yesterday I said the old MEME hasn't risen yet, and it collectively surged overnight
When the market comes, sectors will rotate and rise one by one
You may not believe yourself, but you can't not believe me
This wave of rise has almost wiped out the shorts, isn't it time to take down the longs too
US interest rate hike is already clear.
Latest Predict odds:
25 basis points hike: 88%
No change: 13%
50 basis points hike: 2%
At 2 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. If the rate is raised by 25 basis points, the rate will increase from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first hike since July 2023.
The 25 basis points hike is already fully priced in by the market. What truly determines the direction of $BTC and the Nasdaq is the dot plot and the post-meeting statement:
If the hike is followed by a hint of pause, it could be bearish, with the market falling first then rebounding;
If it hints at continuing hikes in December, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will continue to strengthen, putting pressure on BTC, while altcoins will be the real hard hit;
If it unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged, risk assets might surge instantly, but the market may also question the Fed's resolve to curb inflation, causing long-term US Treasury yields to rise instead.
More complicated is that three events are converging this week: crypto regulation, US dollar liquidity, and yen carry trades, all simultaneously disturbing the market.
The South Korean market is also joining the crypto stock frenzy, with Avax making a move
South Korea is preparing to bring bonds, funds, stocks, and even stablecoin settlements onto the Chain, and
$AVAX has already entered the financial infrastructure of major brokerage firms ahead of time
Hanwha Investment & Securities started development with FairSquare Lab as early as 2025, and the platform is now complete, supporting networks like Avax and HypeBesu. Although it is not exclusive to AVAX, being able to enter the technology stack of major brokerages alongside enterprise-level blockchains is itself an important institutional endorsement
Hanwha is clearly not doing a one-time proof of concept
The Hanwha group collectively holds about 9.6% of Securitize shares
It has invested about 30 billion KRW in Digital Asset, which is behind Canton Network
It has completed a tokenized securities platform compatible with Avalanche
Issuance, registration, circulation, settlement — it is piecing together a complete tokenized financial ecosystem
Before the official launch of securities tokenization in South Korea, Avax has already secured a ticket to enter the technology stack of licensed financial institutions
Once the financial infrastructure completes compliant access, custody, and system integration, migration costs will be very high. Entering the technology stack today could mean participating in standard setting, asset issuance, and liquidity accumulation tomorrow
Of course, it has not yet been disclosed whether the platform is deployed on the public C-Chain or whether AVAX is used to pay Gas, so the scale of securities cannot be directly equated with AVAX buying pressure
Today I saw controversy in the community about Predict's financing.
At the same time, the data for prediction markets in August has also been released.
The combined trading volume of Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US dropped 14.5% month-over-month, falling to $45.33 billion.
This is the first monthly decline in nearly a year.
Kalshi: $37.17 billion
Polymarket + Polymarket US: $8.16 billion
Kalshi alone accounts for about 82%.
But I don't think this indicates that demand for predictions has disappeared. The trading volume in prediction markets is highly dependent on events like elections, sports, macro policies, and crypto market trends.
A 14.5% drop in one month is more of a cooldown after the World Cup. After all, there was still $45.3 billion in transactions in one month, so demand still truly exists.
Kalshi and Polymarket US pursue compliance, building a moat that is hard for others to replicate through licenses, regulation, and the US domestic financial system.
Predict pursues integration. By connecting to Binance Wallet, Trust Wallet, APIs, and the Builder Program, it allows more wallets, bots, trading tools, and third-party applications to become entry points for Predict.
This analogy is not exactly the same, but the competition logic is very similar: on one side building regulatory moats, on the other side competing for entry points, liquidity, and developers
Predicting whether $HYPE can reach $103 before October and surpass $SOL?
I say no.
At first glance, I thought the comparison was about FDV, thinking HYPE would overturn Solana within a month? Then I looked again: token price.
Currently:
$HYPE: $83.39, FDV about $8 billion
$SOL: $102.9, FDV about $64.8 billion
The FDV difference is about 8.1 times, but the price difference is only $19.51.
If SOL stays flat, HYPE only needs to rise about 23.4% to around $103 to surpass it.
Even if HYPE rises to $103, based on current supply, FDV would be about $9.9 billion, still far below SOL.
This is the "price illusion" caused by token supply.
But note, the real threshold isn’t a fixed $103, but the constantly changing SOL price:
SOL down 10%: HYPE only needs to rise about 11%
SOL unchanged: HYPE needs to rise about 23.4%
SOL up 10%: HYPE needs to rise about 35.7%
Essentially, this is a long position on the HYPE/SOL relative exchange rate.
A 23% rise in HYPE in a month isn’t exaggerated; the real challenge is:
When HYPE hits $103, will SOL have already risen to $120?
HYPE being strong isn’t enough; it must be stronger than SOL.
Japanese government bonds are almost at 3%. Japan used to be the world's cheapest capital pool.
Now the 10-year bond auction yield has touched 3%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has also surged to 4.78%. This means that the previous strategy of leveraging low-interest yen to buy global assets is becoming more costly.
What the crypto world fears is not a sudden collapse in Japan, but the gradual retreat of carry trade funds. If the yen strengthens and bond yields continue to rise, who would still be willing to take over at high valuations? #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
This year, the plan is to dollar-cost average into 4 coins: $XRP $AAVE $UNI $ENA
On August 28, the US spot XRP ETF saw a net inflow of $26.2 million, marking the 9th consecutive trading day of capital inflow
From August 24 to 28, a total weekly inflow of $110.49 million was recorded, making it the strongest week for the XRP spot ETF since 2026
At the same time, XRP has been continuously falling from around $1.66 and is currently down to about $1.35
The ETF keeps buying, but the price does not rise in sync, indicating that ETF funds are coming in while profit-taking is also occurring
Another piece of news comes from Evernorth, where the SEC has declared effective the S-4 registration statement related to its merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II
Next, Armada shareholders will vote on September 30. If the transaction is approved, completed smoothly, and meets Nasdaq listing requirements, the merged company is expected to be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code
XRPN
Evernorth expects to hold: 473,276,430 XRP upon listing
US stock investors can gain indirect exposure to XRP through a listed company without directly holding the tokens.
It plans to increase the amount of XRP per share through institutional lending, liquidity provision, on-chain yield strategies, and capital market operations
This brings potential returns but also increases risks related to corporate governance, strategy execution, valuation premiums, and counterparty risk
