The Federal Reserve's pause on rate hikes has many people's first reaction as: Is a rate cut coming soon? Are risk assets about to take off again? I think it's not that simple. Pausing rate hikes does not mean an immediate rate cut. More accurately, we are still in the "rate cut expectation game" phase. What the market is trading on: Whether the rate hike cycle has ended; How soon rate cuts will begin; Whether liquidity will ease again after rate cuts. But what the Fed is really signaling is: Rates will remain high, and they won't loosen easily until inflation is thoroughly brought down. So ordinary people looking at this should not just ask "Will US stocks go up?" They should ask: Which assets have the advantage at this stage? 1️⃣ Gold If real interest rates start to fall, or if the market worries about central bank credibility or geopolitical risks, gold will attract more capital. But I personally prefer to participate through gold ETFs, avoiding complicated leverage and short-term trades. Gold is not something to get rich quick; it’s more like insurance in a portfolio. 2️⃣ Bonds US bonds and domestic bonds have different logics. US bonds focus on allocation value after US rates peak. Domestic bonds are more about stable returns, suitable for those who don’t want to endure large volatility. If you are conservative, bond funds plus a small amount of gold are much more comfortable than chasing hot spots. 3️⃣ Hong Kong stocks Hong Kong stocks have the greatest elasticity. Once the US dollar weakens and foreign capital returns, sectors like Hang Seng tech, internet, innovative medicine, consumer, and high-dividend state-owned enterprises may see significant recovery. But the problem with Hong Kong stocks is obvious: They rise fast but fall fast too. Suitable for phased buying, not for getting carried away. 4️⃣ A-shares A-shares are more like a structural market. Growth sectors include semiconductors, computing power, AI hardware, innovative medicine; Cyclical sectors include consumer and some resources; High dividend stocks can serve as defensive core holdings. But the biggest issue with A-shares is the strong sense of rhythm; you can’t just see one bullish candle and think the bull market is back. 5️⃣ Commodities Crude oil depends on geopolitics and supply-demand. Industrial metals depend on the US dollar, global manufacturing, and Chinese demand. They are not the easiest assets for ordinary people to participate in. Even if the direction is right, volatility might be too high to hold. 6️⃣ US stocks US stocks are not cheap now. The long-term logic for AI, tech leaders, and semiconductors remains, but valuations are indeed high. So I won’t heavily chase gains at the top. Better to participate through dollar-cost averaging, phased buying, and buying on dips. Especially for assets like QQQ, SMH, VGT, the core is not guessing tomorrow’s price moves but whether the tech theme will persist over the next few years. 7️⃣ Crypto Crypto should also be viewed as a major asset class. During the rate cut expectation phase, BTC is often traded first as a "liquidity asset." When real easing begins, ETH, SOL, and some high-beta altcoins may become more active. But my simple advice for ordinary people is: BTC is a core asset; don’t treat it like an altcoin to speculate on. ETH and SOL can be seen as higher-risk growth assets. Altcoins are only suitable for small positions, not for betting your entire wealth. Stablecoin yields are not risk-free; you must consider platform, chain, custody, and counterparty risks. Avoid contract leverage as much as possible; rate cut trades are the easiest traps to get people liquidated. The scariest thing in crypto is not volatility, but thinking you can control volatility. My own understanding is: If the Fed only pauses, the market is still in a game. If rate cuts really come in the future, liquidity will widen. But the order of asset price rises may not be simultaneous. Expectations react first. Liquidity reacts next. Fundamentals react last. The best strategy for ordinary people is not to guess every round of asset rotation but to first understand their own risk tolerance. Conservative: bond funds + a small amount of gold. Balanced: bond funds as a base + gold + broad ETFs + a small amount of BTC. Aggressive: broad tech + semiconductors + Hong Kong tech + BTC/ETH, but definitely control position size. Rate cuts are not a starting gun, and a pause is not a bull market guarantee. What really matters is: You need to know what kind of asset you are buying, Whether it feeds on interest rates, liquidity, earnings, or market sentiment. Without this understanding, even if rate cuts come, you might not make money. With this understanding, volatility becomes an opportunity to reposition.

Since the inception of QQQ (March 1999): Drawdowns over 10%: 21 times, approximately once every 1.3 years. Drawdowns over 20%: 6 times, approximately once every 4.6 years. Drawdowns over 30%: 4 times, approximately once every 6.8 years. Drawdowns over 40%: 2 times, approximately once every 13.7 years. Drawdowns over 50%: 2 times, approximately once every 13.7 years. In other words, the current decline doesn’t even rank in the top 6 in QQQ’s history. For those holding QQQ long-term, this kind of volatility is a normal rhythm. If you want to enjoy the long-term compound returns of the Nasdaq 100, you have to first accept these drawdowns.

I think this unlocking schedule for Changxin Technology is even more worth looking at than the first-day price increase. Many people only focus on whether it is the leading Chinese storage company, whether it is the core asset of domestic DRAM, or whether it can compete with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. These are all important. But what really affects the stock price in the short term is often not the story, but the available shares. At the beginning of Changxin's listing, the truly tradable shares were only 4.503 billion, accounting for 6.73% of the total share capital. What does this mean? The market sees a company with an ultra-large market value, but the shares available for trading in the secondary market are very limited. This structure tends to produce two outcomes: When the price rises, the rush to buy shares is intense; When the price falls, the volatility is also amplified. Because the price in the short term is not determined by the "entire value of the company," but by the "portion of shares available for trading in the market." This is also why many new stocks have extremely exaggerated valuations at the beginning of their listing. Not everyone truly agrees with the price, but the small float and the emotions and funds push the price very high. But what really needs attention is the unlocking schedule that follows. In January 2027, the first batch of offline placement restricted shares will be unlocked, adding about 1.521 billion shares. This is not the main point. The real focus should be July 2027. At that time, about 22.239 billion shares will be unlocked, nearly 4.94 times the current float. By then, the market will no longer face the current "small float" Changxin, but a Changxin with a significantly increased supply of shares. Later, in July 2029, there will be the largest unlocking wave within three years, adding about 36.497 billion shares, approximately 8.10 times the current float. This does not mean shareholders will definitely sell on the unlocking day. Unlocking only removes the restrictions, it does not mean immediate selling. But for the market, the logic will change. Previously, what was traded were scarce shares. Later, what will be traded are fundamentals, profitability, valuation matching, and real buying support. So when I look at Changxin, I can't just look at domestic substitution, nor just the storage cycle. I also need to consider three questions: First, whether the DRAM and HBM cycles can continue to rise in the coming years. Second, whether Changxin's profitability can support the current valuation. Third, after large-scale unlocking, at what price the market is willing to absorb these shares. A good company does not mean any price is reasonable. Changxin's industrial significance is huge, no doubt about that. But the most common mistake ordinary investors make is equating "industrial importance" directly with "stock price must be reasonable." The capital market is very realistic. In the early stage of listing, look at sentiment and float. In the mid-term, look at unlocking and absorption. In the long term, look at profits and competitiveness. Changxin's real test is not how much it rises on the first day of listing, but whether the market is still willing to price it with real money after the shares are gradually released.

Many people look at Google's earnings report and only see that AI is very strong. But what really ignited the storage sector this time was not "how much money Google made," but the market suddenly realizing one thing: Global cloud providers are still continuing to expand AI infrastructure. Google's Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase. Google Cloud revenue was $24.8 billion, an 82% year-over-year increase. This growth rate is no longer ordinary cloud computing growth; it looks more like AI demand is pulling cloud business back into the fast lane. Moreover, Google has further raised its full-year Capex guidance. This is the core reason for the storage sector's rebound. Because AI infrastructure is not just about buying GPUs. Behind GPUs, you need HBM. Servers need DRAM. Data training and inference require SSDs. Models, logs, videos, and enterprise data all need long-term storage. The more cloud customers there are, the more data centers expand, and the greater the storage consumption. So this round of storage rebound is not just about Micron or SK Hynix's own earnings logic, but a global repricing of the entire AI infrastructure chain. What was the market most worried about recently? Worried that AI Capex was too aggressive. Worried that cloud providers were burning money without returns. Worried that storage price increases were just a short cycle. Worried that SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung had already risen too much. But Google's earnings report gave the market a reverse signal: Cloud demand is not bad. AI demand has not stopped. Big companies are still buying computing power. Data centers are still expanding. This will directly affect the global storage chain. Micron benefits from DRAM, HBM, and NAND cycles. SK Hynix benefits from HBM high-bandwidth memory. Samsung benefits from global storage and wafer manufacturing comprehensive capabilities. Companies like WDC, Seagate, and SanDisk benefit from enterprise storage and data center expansion. Previously, the storage industry mainly looked at inventories of phones, PCs, and consumer electronics. Now it's different. Now the storage industry looks at: Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, Meta data centers, AI inference volume, HBM supply and demand, enterprise SSD prices. In other words, storage has gradually shifted from a "consumer electronics cycle" to an "AI infrastructure cycle." This is also why the storage sector has rebounded so strongly recently. It's not because the market suddenly stopped fearing high valuations. It's because when prices fell before, the market interpreted "AI spending too much" as a bad thing; Now with earnings reports out, the market is starting to reinterpret: As long as this spending can bring cloud revenue, AI revenue, and higher customer demand, then this Capex is not pure money burning but is sending orders to upstream storage manufacturers. Of course, we must stay calm despite the strong rebound. Storage stocks themselves are very volatile, and the price increase cycle cannot rise linearly forever. What to watch next is not how much it rises in a day, but several core variables: Whether HBM continues to be tight; Whether DRAM contract prices can be maintained; Whether NAND continues to recover; Whether cloud providers will continue to raise Capex; Whether AI inference demand can truly scale up. My view is simple: Google's earnings report does not directly tell you how much more storage stocks will rise, but it at least shows that the global AI infrastructure line has not been disproven. The short-term rebound trades on sentiment repair. Whether it can continue long-term depends on whether cloud providers really keep buying servers, memory, and storage. On the surface, this storage market looks like a chip stock rebound. In essence, it is a global data center repricing.

When studying finance, don't start by asking "Who can help me make money?" This path is easy to go astray. Many people new to financial content like to watch three types of things the most: What to buy today? Will it rise tomorrow? Which stock can double? But after watching too much of this, what you learn is not finance, but emotions. Truly valuable financial content doesn't press the buy or sell button for you; it helps you build a way to see the world. So I think when learning finance, you can follow several directions to watch different UP creators. 1️⃣ If you want to improve business analysis skills, watch the hardcore Banfo Xianren. He is best for finance beginners. Not because he teaches you to buy stocks, but because he breaks down complex business problems in a very simple way. Why does a company make money? Why does an industry rise and fall? What exactly drives a business model? Once you understand these questions, when you look at financial reports, valuations, and industries, you won't just focus on stock price fluctuations. 2️⃣ If you want to understand capital markets and financial history, watch Wizard Finance. Many market phenomena seem complicated if you only look at today. But in the context of history, they are just repeated plays of human nature, liquidity, risk appetite, and cycles. Finance doesn't appear out of thin air; behind it are stories, systems, interests, and games. Understanding these means you won't be surprised every time the market surges or crashes. If you want to learn how to analyze companies, watch Old Jiang, who is very reliable. He leans toward value investing, focusing on company fundamentals. Whether a company is good is not about how famous the name is or short-term price rises, but whether it can make money long-term, if the business model is stable, if the moat still exists, and if the valuation has a margin of safety. The greatest value of this content is to help you chase trends less and improve judgment more. 3️⃣ If you want to understand China's economy and enterprise development, watch Wu Xiaobo Channel. It focuses more on business history and company cases. Many Chinese companies' growth is not just product-driven but also related to policy cycles, industrial environment, and era dividends. Putting companies back into their times makes many issues clearer. Why do some companies survive? Why do some industries suddenly explode? Why did some business models work before but fail later? These are things K-lines can't tell you. If you want to see macro, policy, and industry trends, watch Finance Eleven. This content suits those with some foundation. Macro is not for predicting tomorrow's ups and downs. It's more like a backdrop. Interest rates, exchange rates, fiscal policy, industrial policy, employment, inflation—these don't decide stock prices daily but affect capital costs, corporate profits, and industry directions long-term. Understanding macro means you won't interpret every market fluctuation as a single cause. 4️⃣ If you can handle English, watch Patrick Boyle. He talks about financial markets, investment banks, hedge funds, financial crises, and financial products, closer to professional financial training. This content isn't necessarily easy but is great for those wanting systematic financial market learning. Finance isn't luck; it's understanding, models, and discipline. The sooner you understand this, the better. If you want to learn asset allocation and long-term investing, watch Ben Felix. He leans more academic and quantitative. The core isn't teaching you to guess the market but explaining: Why is diversification important? Why are ETFs suitable for most ordinary people? Why are cost, risk, rebalancing, and long-term discipline more important than predicting short-term trends? This is very useful for ordinary investors because most lose money not for missing opportunities but for lacking a system they can execute long-term. My advice is: Don't treat these UP creators as "answers." Treat them as different tools. Banfo helps you understand business. Wizard helps you understand capital markets. Old Jiang helps you understand companies. Wu Xiaobo helps you understand Chinese enterprises. Finance Eleven helps you understand macro policies. Patrick Boyle helps you understand the financial system. Ben Felix helps you understand long-term allocation. Truly learning finance isn't about watching one video and knowing what to buy. It's about slowly building three abilities: Understand business. Understand cycles. Understand yourself. The first two determine if you can find opportunities. The last one determines if you can survive. The most important thing in learning finance is not finding someone who is always right but building a judgment system that won't be swayed by market emotions.

Accept the consequences of your bet. A 26-year-old trader at a wealth management company in Hong Kong misappropriated HKD 50 million in company margin, and went all-in on a "2x leveraged long Hynix ETF." When the market was good, the account had an unrealized profit of nearly 200 million. He didn’t exit. He said, "Double it again." Then Hynix crashed. The HKD 50 million principal instantly went to zero, and he owed 150 million. The company audited, reported to the police, and he was arrested. At 26, his career ended, and just as life began, he was burdened with debts that would take generations to repay. This story sounds dramatic, but in South Korea, it’s not even news. South Korea has 50 million people and 100 million stock accounts. On average, two accounts per person. This year, retail trading volume accounts for over 70% of the market. Last year, South Korea’s stock market had the highest global gains; in the first half of this year, the KOSPI doubled again. On June 19, the index touched 9,385 points, just one step away from 10,000. One step away from a bottomless abyss. South Koreans have gone crazy. Young people stopped buying houses, and threw 100 million KRW in wedding gifts into the stock market. Middle-aged people bet their entire family savings. Elderly people went all in with their pensions. Even elementary school students opened accounts. Stock trading by the whole population is not a metaphor; it’s data from the statistics bureau. Not enough leverage at 2x? They nested it. They stacked leverage inside 2x ETFs, pushing it to 6x, 9x. Samsung and Hynix stocks absorbed 70 trillion KRW in margin financing, equivalent to over 30 billion RMB. All of South Korea’s leverage is pressed on these two "national lifelines." And then? Performance fell short of expectations. Capital expenditures peaked. Changxin came out to compete for market share. Samsung dropped 10% in one day, Hynix 18% in one day. The faith of South Korean retail investors was shattered in two days. July turned into a battlefield. Early, mid, and late month, three crashes. In just 20 trading days, KOSPI fell from 9,385 to below 6,000 points. The first to die were those with leveraged positions. 1.2 million leveraged accounts were flooded with margin call notices. 400,000 accounts were wiped out. Not just losses, wiped out. Principal, houses, pensions, children’s tuition—all gone. Worse was yet to come. South Korean leveraged accounts can borrow money to trade stocks; if they lose principal, they still owe the brokerage. Some lost millions of KRW as a start; some woke up with debts of tens of millions. Those who can’t repay jump off buildings; those who can’t bear it go after influencers who recommended Hynix. What the South Korean government fears most now is not the stock market falling further, but the suicide rate. South Korea’s suicide rate was already among the highest globally during the financial crisis; this time, with nationwide leveraged blowouts, social pressure is unimaginable. But the most surreal thing is: even with the market like this, South Koreans keep buying. Because they believe one thing: win and you defy fate, lose and you’re completely wiped out. Accept the consequences of your bet. But the problem is, those who truly defy fate are never the retail investors. They are the ones issuing ETFs, collecting margin, sitting at the table waiting for you to go all in. Retail investors think they’re betting on the nation’s fate, but they’re really just betting on how many more rounds they can survive. This is the truth about leverage. It won’t make your fate better; it will only make your end come faster.

Understanding at a Glance｜What to Really Watch for in Tonight's Fed Meeting? At 2:00 AM Beijing Time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The last four meetings have all held steady, with the current rate range still at 3.50%-3.75%. The focus tonight has never been whether there will be a rate cut, but rather— Pause, or start turning hawkish? The key points to watch are: 1. Whether the statement strengthens the inflation risk warning 2. Whether a rate hike in September is still on the table The decision itself will most likely remain unchanged, but the wording and the tone of the press conference by Chair Powell will directly determine how the market prices the next month and a half. What truly impacts the market has never been the rate decision itself, but the expectations for the next steps.

In this round of US stock market decline, I think the most valuable thing is not predicting the bottom. But to remind everyone of one thing: Make money in a bull market, learn risk control during corrections. Many people, as soon as they see a drop, start asking: Is this the bottom? Should I buy the dip? Can I leverage up now? But those who have truly experienced several cycles know that surviving is more important than bottom fishing. Because the market doesn’t only reward the brave. The market rewards those who survive to the next opportunity. First, good companies also get their valuations cut. Many people have a misconception: As long as the company’s fundamentals are good, the stock price shouldn’t fall. This is only half true. Good fundamentals don’t mean the price won’t retract. An excellent company doesn’t mean its valuation is always reasonable. The growth theme may remain unchanged, but that doesn’t mean short-term capital won’t take profits. Especially in hot sectors like AI, semiconductors, and memory, the sharper the previous rise, the faster the correction once expectations loosen. It’s not that the company suddenly got worse. It’s that the market starts recalculating: Is this price still justified? Second, don’t recklessly use leverage during declines. Leverage acts like an amplifier when prices rise, but like a meat grinder when they fall. If the underlying stock drops 10%, a 2x ETF might drop 20%. With continuous declines, amplified volatility, and path dependency losses, it becomes harder to recover. Many people don’t die from being on the wrong side of the market. They die because their position size and leverage were wrong. Especially during corrections in hot sectors, a common mindset emerges: "It’s already dropped so much, let me leverage up to buy the dip." This is often the most dangerous moment. Third, during high-yield phases, learn to lock in profits. The biggest mistake in a bull market is treating unrealized gains as permanent assets. When the account grows, people feel they understand the market. When a sector rises, they think the theme will never end. When a stock doubles, they expect tenfold gains ahead. But the market won’t let you keep your money just because you’ve made some. If your position is already heavy and profits are substantial, it’s normal to set stop profits early, take partial profits, or hedge some risks. Earning less is not shameful. Not earning is better than losing. Taking profits is the real gain. Fourth, during panic phases, handle leverage first, then opinions. Many people like to do research during declines. They look at earnings reports, valuations, macro data, and news. But if you have high leverage, the first thing is not research, but risk reduction. Because opinions can be gradually adjusted, but liquidation won’t wait for you to figure things out. Especially now, with the Nasdaq valuation no longer cheap, and although the AI theme remains, the market’s tolerance for earnings and guidance has clearly decreased. In such phases, position management is more important than prediction. Fifth, don’t mistake short-term corrections for long-term endings. If the AI theme remains, tech giants’ profits remain, and the fundamentals of index components are intact, many declines are more like valuation and sentiment adjustments. But this doesn’t mean you can blindly rush in. The right approach is not to guess the lowest point, but to buy in batches, dollar-cost average, and control position size to ensure you can hold through the subsequent period. Because real big moves rarely happen in a single day. There will always be pullbacks, volatility, doubts, and shakeouts along the way. Only those who get through can qualify to benefit from the following trend. My understanding is simple: In a bull market, don’t mistake luck for skill. In corrections, don’t mistake panic for judgment. Declines aren’t scary. What’s scary is being fully invested, leveraged, cashless, and still insisting you’re right. Make profits in bull markets, learn risk control in corrections. Survive, and you’ll have a chance to wait for the next new high.