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Whether the CLARITY Act can be implemented depends crucially on the political struggle between the two parties. The Democratic Party is reluctant to support ethical provisions that favor protecting the Trump family's crypto interests. Even if the bill is shelved, Trump can still implement amicable regulation through the SEC and CFTC during his term, but the next administration is likely to overturn existing policies.
The Democrats are not outright opposed; they want to improve consumer protections and prevent business outflow, while also worrying that supporting the bill could be accused of condoning conflicts of interest. With the midterm elections approaching, the room for compromise continues to narrow. Whether the bill can be implemented depends on whether Trump makes concessions, whether Democrats accept it, and whether consensus can be reached in the next week or two.
We must recognize the essence of the law: it is not a favorable factor stimulating coin prices, nor will it cut interest rates or directly raise altcoins. It is merely a set of market rules laws used to distinguish whether digital assets are securities or commodities, clarifying the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC, regulating exchange operations, user asset protection, and project information disclosure, thereby reversing the current situation of "launching products first, only being held accountable by the SEC afterwards."
It's unrealistic to treat it as a short-term catalyst, but as a long-term regulatory infrastructure, it can formally integrate the crypto industry into the U.S. financial system. Even if the bill passes, the new regulations will not be switched immediately; a long compliance implementation cycle will take effect, and the overall effect will only begin after 360 days after the bill is implemented and the supporting details are released. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 TURBO shows significant capital movement today. According to real-time data from OKX, $TURBO is currently priced at $0.0008, with a 24-hour increase of +6.92%. The intraday high reached 0.0009, and the low dipped to 0.0008. The trading volume is reported at 0.2B, ranking among the top in similar MEME coins. The price turnover occurred within an extremely narrow range; the apparent amplitude data shows 0.0%, but in reality, there was about a 12.5% fluctuation between the high and low points, which was smoothed out due to statistical precision. This tight structure often indicates highly concentrated chips and an imminent directional choice. Switching the chart period to 4 hours, the moving average system shows a clear bullish alignment. MA70.00079 crossed above MA300.00076 12 hours ago, signaling a short-term trend acceleration. The price has consistently stayed above both, with pullbacks not breaking below. MA600.00072 still slopes upward, providing effective support for the mid-term structure. MACD completed a second golden cross above the zero axis; the DIF and DEA lines slightly diverge, and the histogram turned from green to red and continues to lengthen, with no signs of bearish divergence, indicating healthy momentum. The 4H RSI reads 68, not reaching the overbought threshold, remaining within a reasonable range for a strong phase, suggesting current buying is not at an extreme and there is room to push higher. On the daily structure, $TURBO's movement is even more critical. It had consolidated in the 0.00065–0.00078 range for three consecutive weeks. Today, a volume-increased bullish candle fully engulfs the horizontal candles of the previous five trading days, forming a daily-level breakout pattern. The daily MA30 has just flattened and started to turn up, with the price stabilizing above it, confirming the right side of a mid-term bottom formation. The daily MACD formed an underwater golden cross below zero; the DIF has crossed above zero, officially entering the bullish quadrant. The daily RSI is 59, with room before 70, indicating the market has not entered a frenzy phase and the trend continuation probability is high. Regarding volume, today's 0.2B trading volume is 66% higher than the previous five-day average of 0.12B, with price rising and volume increasing, showing genuine capital inflow. Within the same sector, $SLP rose 5.58%, $MERL increased 5.19%, and $BABYDOGE gained 5.07%, but their trading volumes are significantly lower than $TURBO. Although $BABYDOGE has an enormous volume of 411141.2B tokens traded, the token base is extremely large, so the actual USD trading volume does not form an overwhelming advantage. $TURBO's 0.2B trading volume clearly attracts more capital among similar assets, reflecting a higher willingness for short-term speculation. This comparison indirectly confirms that $TURBO's leading rise today is not a follow-up but an independent action. Opening OKX's trading page, the $TURBO logo is accompanied by a visually striking Shanhaijing-style artwork, where a chaotic beast and a red upward arrow seem to form a metaphor. Of course, technical analysis does not indulge in mysticism, only recognizing volume and price signals. Current structure $TRUMP — another large transfer from the team wallet...
An hour ago, 10.84M $TRUMP worth about ~$16.91M was moved. Judging by the route, the tokens might be routed through BitGo to exchanges.
And this is no longer an isolated case.
In the last 5 months, the team has sent 48.25M $TRUMP worth about ~$172.4M in three separate tranches. Each time, the market looked weaker afterward 📉
Coincidence? Maybe. But when the same pattern repeats again and again, it's hard to ignore.
Is $TRUMP preparing to put pressure on the price again? ...Will Dogecoin fail to rise in the next bull market?
$DOGE A very realistic change: Elon Musk's pump effect weakens year by year. In the next bull market, trying to replicate the 2021 rally will be far more difficult than most people imagine.
In the 2021 bull market, any casual post from Musk could drive DOGE to surge significantly within a day, essentially moving the market single-handedly. But now the situation has completely changed. Even when Musk mentions DOGE, it usually only causes a brief pulse, and within a few days it returns to its original state. The market has gradually become desensitized.
The core issue is not just the fading influence, but also the severe internal competition in the entire Meme sector, with funds continuously being diverted.
Back then, there were very few Meme sector options, and retail speculative funds were highly concentrated in DOGE; now, the Solana blockchain continuously spawns new memes like PEPE, BONK, and so on.
"DOGE going to Mars" used to be the most eye-catching grand narrative. Countless people firmly believed that Musk would push Dogecoin to become the currency for interstellar payments, with Dogecoin landing on Mars alongside SpaceX, leading to a complete valuation explosion.
Years later, everyone has seen the reality: going to Mars was mostly just a marketing gimmick and a verbal vision. Now Mars has also exploded, and the Mars dream should be awakened. $OKB #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
Will it rise fivefold before going public? Hyperliquid Surges Changxin Memory to $428 Billion—Who Is Fighting for Pricing Power?
News broke that domestic DRAM chip giant Changxin Memory (CXMT) was about to list on the STAR Market. People expected the exciting drama to unfold on the A-share market, but unexpectedly, the most frenzied capital competition kicked off on-chain.
Bloomberg data shows that Changxin Memory's IPO price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of about 2.4 times, which is about 56% discount to global peers like Micron, SK Hynix, and Nanya Technology. If it surges 330% on its first day of listing, its market value could exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Sell-side brokerage Huaxi Securities even boldly predicted a valuation of 5 trillion RMB by 2026.
But even more dramatic is the reaction of decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid.
On Hyperliquid's Pre-Market pre-sale perpetual contract market, Changxin Memory's contract price was directly plunged to about $6.38 by on-chain hot money—a full five times the IPO offering price! Correspondingly, the implied total valuation on the chain surged to an astonishing $428 billion (about 3.1 trillion RMB), raising expectations of "surpassing ICBC at the top" even before the A-share market opened.
This on-chain and off-chain valuation frenzy has exposed two extremely hardcore market truths:
First, DeFi is competing for the front-of-price power of top traditional financial IPOs. Traditional investors are still waiting for prospectuses and the STAR Market launch, while Web3 players have already completed their pre-voting through permissionless Pre-Market contracts. On-chain liquidity is being sensitive to hard tech targets and pricing efficiency, delivering a dimensionality reduction blow to traditional secondary markets.
Second, in a high interest rate environment, global capital's FOMO sentiment over "AI storage hard technology" has reached its peak. Micron Technology and SK Hynix currently have market caps at just $100 billion, while Hyperliquid and Changxin Memory have been speculated up to $428 billion. While domestic substitution and AI HBM are extremely scarce, they have also severely drained short-term fundamentals.
My conclusion: Changxin Memory's 5x premium on Hyperliquid is a microcosm of the explosive power of on-chain derivatives and the intense desire for high-quality hard tech targets. However, for traders, pre-market contracts often experience intense overcrowding in the absence of spot hedges, resulting in "high sentiment before listing and arbitrage returns after listing."
Do you think after Changxin Memory's listing, spot A-shares can absorb Hyperliquid's $428 billion valuation on the chain? Let's talk in the commentsBase正在吞掉所有人的午餐。 这不是夸张。截至7月24日，Base的TVL达到117亿美元，占以太坊所有L2总锁仓量374亿美元的近三分之一。更关键的是交易量——Base处理了L2全部交易的37%，每月2.48亿笔。 但数字会骗人。 TVL不等于真实用户，交易量不等于有人真的在用这些链做有价值的事。当激励消失、空投结束，这些数字还能剩下多少？ 我花了两周把Base、Arbitrum、Optimism、ZK Sync的数据拉出来对比了一遍。结论可能跟你想象的不一样。 四个玩家，四种活法 Base：Coinbase的流量怪兽 Base的成功没有什么技术秘密。它的秘密武器叫Coinbase。 这家美国最大的合规交易所把数千万零售用户直接导流到链上。别人花几亿美金做增长黑客，Base只需要在Coinbase的App里加一个按钮。 但Base有一个致命问题：它没有代币。 这意味着用户和开发者在这个平台上创造价值，却没法通过代币获得直接回报。没有空投预期，没有治理参与感。更糟的是，Base的排序器完全由Coinabase中心化运营——如果Coinbase决定不处理你的交易，你就完了。 今年2月，Retail is addicted to the pump, and smart money knows it. $KAITO is running on pure hype right now. It feels like 2021 all over again, with retail desperate to catch that same high. But this rally looks fragile. One big sell and the whole thing folds. While everyone chases $KAITO, whales have been quietly taking profits on $NEIRO. That 11 percent daily gain sounds exciting, but it’s mostly smoke. There’s no real base behind it. Look at $ORDI. Up 12.65 percent today. Classic trap. It’s being push$UNI This 5.20% pulse emerging from chaos closely resembles the extension of the fifth sub-wave at the end of the adjustment wave in Elliott Wave Theory. According to OKX real-time data, $UNI rebounded from the intraday low of 3.64 and precisely touched the high of 3.87. The amplitude appears to be 0.0%, but that is a lag in statistical standards; in reality, intraday volatility is surging undercurrents. This bald bullish candlestick directly swallowed the hesitation of the past dozen hours, structurally not a simple oversold rebound. Opening the 1-hour chart, Fibonacci backtests the range from the recent high of 4.20 to 3.64. The current rebound high of 3.87 is just around the 0.382 Fibonach ratio at 3.86. This is no coincidence. If $UNI cannot hold above 3.86 and increase volume on the next four-hour candlestick, then this rally can only be defined as a weak correction to the previous decline. The real battle is at 0.618, around 3.98. Only by breaking through and stabilizing 3.98 can the downward driving wave be technically declared ended, thereby opening a new upward driving wave structure. From the volume structure perspective, although the amount shows 0.0B suspected data interface delay, the order book depth shows that support at 3.64 is very solid, indicating a dense area of passive buying. This perfectly aligns with the iron rule in wave theory that a pullback of the second wave does not break the start of the first wave. If 3.64 is considered the starting point of the new wave, the current rebound is the B wave rebound during the second wave correction, with very limited height. Next, a wave of C wave will likely push downward, testing 3.72 or even lower, which is exactly where Fibonacci 0.786 coincides with the peak of wave 1. Now let's look at the RSI relative strength indicator. While the price reached a high of 3.87, the hourly RSI did not simultaneously hit a new high; instead, it hesitated before the overbought zone, forming a clear bearish divergence pattern. This is a signal of momentum exhaustion. Whenever the price hits a new high and the RSI fails to cooperate, the market often gives back gains in a very short time. This divergence deserves extreme caution; false breakouts are often buried here. The real cost of the market is not in the news but in the candlestick. Shifting slightly to other unusual tokens, $BABYDOGE rose 4.73%, with an exceptionally high turnover reaching 409,552.2B. This reflects the emotional release of meme coins in blind box styles, completely different from $UNI's technical recovery logic. Although $SAFE's price is only 0.0858, it steadily climbed 4.32%, showing moderate volume, which contrasts with $NIGHT's 4.17% selling pressure. $NIGHT's price of 0.0192 has hit a recent low, with bearish positions showing no resistance. By comparison, $UNI remains a mainstream spot stock with relatively strong technical anchors. This reminds one of constructivism in abstract art; market trends are like invisible canvases, price trajectories are brushstrokes, and Fibonacci ratios are hidden structural frameworks. What seems like a chaotic oversold rebound, when broken down by data flow, all returns to the coldness of mathematical probability. Those tiny order fragments gather into clear resistance and support. On a strategic level, chasing highs at this moment $UNI a poor risk-reward ratio is pure gambling. Trying to pick up bargains in the chip vacuum between 3.72 and 3.66 is the high win rate position given by quantitative models. Stop losses must be mindlessly placed at 3.59, which is the last line of defense against wave pattern breakdown. When the price repeatedly rubs within a very small range and RSI shows a bullish divergence repair, that's the real time to go all. Otherwise, you only hold the bottom position, never fully positioned to navigate uncertainty. Reality isn't built on news and sentiment; when the tide recedes, the only thing you can rely on is the candlestick pattern itself and the ironclad discipline of money management. Did I miss out again? Is it still too late to get on board with $BTC now? No, I'm not here to ask today. I just saw the data from India and was completely stunned. 645,000 people trading cryptocurrencies, less than a quarter have declared it. A quarter, sisters, what does that mean? The remaining three-quarters are just struggling to play hide-and-seek with the tax authorities. Do they really not know how to declare it, or are they driven crazy by the 30% tax rate? When the policy came out last year, I had a feeling something was off. A 30% profit commission hasn't been deducted yet, and losses can't be offset either. How is this taxation? It's clearly trying to discourage retail investors. Now look, the data is right on their faces, but they completely ignore your tactics. Where it should be on-chain, what should be OTC—you can't even keep track of all the exchange's data, and expect them to just fill out the forms? But wait, take a closer look at this situation. The government wants taxes, retail investors don't want to pay, and exchanges are caught in the middle, frantically exporting data. Isn't this just the early script of Europe and the US? By #加密行情回暖, Bitcoin had risen #KOSPI大涨5.85%, and chip short squeezes rebounded #特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战事 在 $LIT 和 $HYPE 之间，我读到了一个非常微妙的差异。
LIT 的核心亮点在于它的零知识证明电路，这个设计允许监管机构直接对区块进行解密验证。比如 10/10 这种机制，监管可以亲眼确认结果是否真实。更关键的是，LIT 正在直接与相关监管机构合作，并且根据 Vlad 和 threadguy 的最新播客，他们声称已经收到了积极的反馈。
说实话，全世界能真正搞懂这个证明如何运作的人，可能不超过 30 个。但重点不在于技术细节，而在于它给监管机构画出的那个"可控透明"的幻觉和优势。而 HYPE 目前没有这个。
问题来了：能否事后证明某些数据，真的重要吗？在某些场景下当然重要。但放到 10/10 这种场景里呢？它有点像交易所里加权的预言机数据——如果证明出来结果不会改变，那证明本身还有多大意义？
不过，拥有"可证明"这个选项，依然比一个纯粹的黑盒要强得多，至少在监管测试中能赢。
我真的很想看到一个 ELI5 级别的解释，说明在哪些具体场景下，这种证明才能真正发挥作用，并对监管机构或普通用户产生实质性的区别。
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause The recent successive exit of small and medium-sized crypto exchanges means the crypto market is moving from its early stage of "high returns, high risk, strong speculation" to a "medium return, medium risk, and more mature" phase. Opportunities for excess returns from information gaps, regulatory arbitrage, and market chaos are decreasing, and future opportunities will focus more on compliance, infrastructure, long-term value, and industrial applications. The crypto industry is moving from the "Gold Rush Era" to the "Financial Infrastructure Era." #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $BTC $CORE In-depth analysis of the core value of public chains: The earliest time to truly achieve full decentralization and comply with US ETF regulation
1. In-depth Analysis of Core Public Chain Core Value
(1) Core Value of the Track: Entering the trillion-yuan BTC asset gap
Bitcoin's total market capitalization exceeds one trillion USD, but it natively does not support smart contracts, staking lending, or decentralized applications, leaving a large number of Bitcoin holders' assets idle for a long time. Core focuses on native BTC non-custodial staking, BTC lending, and BTC payment consumption (SatPay), precisely meeting the financialization needs of BTC assets, with long-term rigid demand in the sector.
1. User Value: Users hold the private key throughout their BTC stake, and assets are not transferred to contract custody, alleviating concerns about asset theft;
2. Miner value: Bitcoin miners only need to write simple data in blocks to delegate hash power and earn CORE mining profits, requiring no additional hardware investment and binding a large group of Bitcoin miners;
3. Developer Value: Fully compatible with EVM, Ethereum DeFi and NFT projects migrated with one click, significantly lowering the development threshold.
(2) Differentiated Technological Value (Unique Barriers)
1. Satoshi Plus Hybrid Consensus Exclusive Architecture: Integrates DPoW (Bitcoin hashrate) + DPoS (CORE staking) + BTC non-custodial staking, leveraging trillion-level Bitcoin network computing power to ensure underlying security, while solving Bitcoin's extremely low TPS and inability to run smart contracts. It is one of the few public chains in the industry truly tied to Bitcoin's native computing power;
2. coreBTC Anchoring Technology: Self-developed 1:1 Bitcoin on-chain encapsulation solution, avoiding cross-chain bridge theft risks and enabling BTC to flow freely within the chain;
3. High-performance underlying layer: Block confirmation takes 3 seconds, balancing security and transaction efficiency, suitable for high-frequency DeFi ecosystems.
2. Predicted fastest implementation time for fully decentralized Core products
1. Core official phased decentralization route
Core decentralization is divided into three key stages: node expansion, decentralization of governance, and community takeover of treasury assets. The core node expansion proposal CIP-7 plans to expand validator nodes from 31 to 41 by Q2 2026, which is just the first step toward decentralization:
1. Short-term phase (already implemented): The number of nodes has slightly expanded, but node access is still subject to foundation screening, and core governance proposals are still led by the team;
2. Mid-stage: Permissionless node access is open; any user meeting hardware requirements can apply to become a validator node, and DPoS voting rights are fully decentralized;
3. Ultimate complete decentralization: treasury funds, protocol parameters, and hard fork upgrades are 100% decided by community DAO voting; the foundation has no unilateral decision-making power or team backdoor interference in network operations.
2. Scenario-based prediction
(1) Optimistic fastest scenario (all routes land on time, probability 20%)
- End of 2027: Complete permissionless validation node opening, with the number of nodes surpassing 100, and highly decentralized hashrate and staking voting;
- First half of 2029: Treasury assets will be transferred to DAO community autonomy, teams will lose unilateral protocol modification rights, achieving true full decentralization.
(2) Neutral benchmark scenario (60% probability, best aligned with project status)
The DPoS delegation mechanism is naturally prone to concentrated staking by large players, with node dispersion progressing slower than planned:
A complete decentralization transformation will only be completed between 2030 and 2032. Because the DPoS model cannot completely eliminate monopoly node voting by large token holders, it will never achieve the ultimate decentralization of Bitcoin PoW, only community-led weak decentralization.
(3) Pessimistic scenario (20% probability)
For the sake of network stability, the project deliberately slows down decentralization, retaining long-term foundation control rights, making full decentralization permanently impossible.
3. Analysis of CORE's timing and thresholds for compliance regulation under U.S. SEC ET
(1) US SEC Spot ETF Mandatory Approval Rules (2025 General Listing New Regulations)
To issue a CORE spot ETF independently, three major hard requirements must be met, none of which can be missing:
1. Derivatives threshold: CORE must list standardized futures contracts on CFTC-designated compliant futures exchanges and have been continuously traded for at least 6 months;
2. Market Monitoring Threshold: The spot trading market is integrated into ISG's cross-market monitoring system, allowing the SEC to effectively monitor market manipulation and abnormal trading;
3. Asset qualification threshold: The SEC has determined that CORE is a commodity (not a security). Once classified as a security, it cannot use the spot commodity ETF channel;
4. Supporting Conditions: Asset custody audits by compliant custodians (Coinbase, BitGo, etc.), daily net value disclosure, transparent on-chain position disclosure.
(2) Current Status and Gaps in CORE
1. Non-compliant CFTC futures: Currently, there are no standardized CORE futures contracts regulated by CFTC, which is the biggest hard threshold;
2. Insufficient decentralization: The SEC places great emphasis on decentralization when reviewing crypto ETFs. If project teams still have strong regulatory power, the SEC will greatly increase the difficulty of review;
3. Insufficient liquidity: CORE's total market cap is only $400 million, with liquidity and trading volume far below BTC and ETH. The SEC is concerned that small-cap coins are easily manipulated by market makers;
4. Compliance barriers for staking business: CORE's core function is BTC staking yield. ETFs with staking yields are not included in the general fast-track approval channel and require lengthy review for each case.
(3) Route compliance time forecast
Path 1: Standalone CORE spot ETF (extremely difficult)
1. Step 1: Launch CFTC-compliant futures (fastest 1.5~2 years to land);
2. Step 2: After 6 months of futures trading, complete a highly decentralized transformation;
3. Step 3: The issuer submits the S-1 document for review; the regular review period is more than 75 days.
The fastest time for optimistic implementation is the second half of 2029, provided that decentralization, futures, and liquidity all meet standards; Neutral expectations only qualify for applications after 2032; in a pessimistic scenario, standalone spot ETFs will never be approved.
Path 2: Include multi-currency combination ETFs (lower barrier, easier to implement)
Earliest time: In 2027, as long as CORE liquidity and custody compliance meet standards, it can be included in portfolio ETFs, but there will be no standalone CORE spot ETFs. Recently, tech giants have delivered their earnings seasons, and the revenue figures of Google and Tesla look quite impressive, but the market is voting with its feet. Both companies' free cash flow turned negative in the second quarter, Google's capital expenditure surged to $13.2 billion, and Tesla was heavily investing in AI infrastructure, causing significant short-term profits erodion. Wall Street began to doubt the pace of AI monetization, and under valuation pressure, stock prices naturally came under pressure. This concern has permeated the crypto market, making the overall market direction unclear. $BTC is currently fluctuating narrowly around $64,500, and $ETH is also stuck at $1,890. Although there is a slight rebound, trading volume continues to shrink, lacking the confidence for sustained upward movement. Funds are clearly fleeing mainstream coins and seeking opportunities with greater resilience. The AI track happens to be a safe haven. From decentralized computing power to intelligent proxies, $FET, $AGIX, $RENDER concept coins have recently shown independent movements, with clear traces of capital inflows. History often repeats itself: while traditional giants frantically burn money to invest in AI, related projects in the crypto world instead become testing grounds for speculative capital. This logic is hard to disprove in the short term, and it is expected that the AI sector will experience even more intense differentiation in the coming weeks, with some projects possibly experiencing independent main gains. US dollar liquidity remains relatively tight, and clearer macro signals are needed for the market to break previous highs. But for patient traders, the AI sector already has narrative advantages and capital consensus. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党$SHIB Surged 36% in a single day to $0.0000057, reflecting extreme structural buying in a low-liquidity weekend environment, but whether trading volume can sustain growth is the core challenge in validating this breakout.
Upbit's SHIB/KRW trading pair had a single-day turnover of $62 million, accounting for over 10% of global trading volume and maintaining a premium over the US dollar market, indicating that the core source of capital rally was concentrated in the Korean spot market. The $5 million short liquidation on the derivatives side was only a post-release result and did not take an active driving position.
The driving logic is ranked by priority: premium buying on Korean spot stocks, selling pressure caused by token outflows from centralized exchanges and a 3200% surge in single-day burn rates, and finally derivatives short positions passively unwinding. Major players withdrew 30 billion tokens and other addresses accumulated over 50 billion tokens on-chain, further squeezing short-term liquidity on the market.
The trigger condition for the upward scenario is that Upbit's trading volume proportion remains above 10% and remains above the USD market premium. On this path, it is necessary to observe whether funds are shifting to derivatives open interest; If the Korean trading volume drops sharply, this breakout scenario will immediately fail.
The trigger for the downside scenario is that spot buying will rapidly weaken after Monday's open, leading to a concentrated emergence of profit-taking. On this path, attention should be paid to the pullback support below $0.0000057. If selling pressure continues to release and on-chain net outflows turn into net inflows, short-term support will quickly be breached.
The core signal for judging the current failure of bullish dominance is that 24-hour trading volume has not amplified in sync with price fluctuations, or derivatives bulls have begun to actively liquidate positions. If the price pullback fails to form a second turnover at the previous rally, the entire 36% gain will be regarded as a pure weekend liquidity clearing event.
The key 24-hour watch is whether the premium rate for the Korean session narrows and whether outflows from spot reserves on exchanges are interrupted.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in negotiations on the opening of the strait has #贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟Brothers, ETH rose 1.09% today, currently priced at $1888.39. Over the past three days, ETH has been bouncing back and forth between $1860 and $1910, neither rising nor falling. It's not about building up energy—it's that everyone is waiting for the Fed. Technicals: Barely above the 20-day moving average (1840), but the 50-day moving average (1905) and 200-day moving average (2150) are firmly holding overhead. Buying depth skewed by -24.84%, with selling orders crushing buying orders. The only bullish signal is that the stochastic indicator has entered oversold territory, indicating a potential technical rebound in the short term. Liquidity flow: Last week, BlackRock's Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $99.2 million, while Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $95.5 million during the same period—the market is expected to see a phase of institutional capital rotation. However, short-term pressure remains, with ETFs seeing a net outflow of $70.62 million yesterday. On-chain signal: validator exit queue has been cleared, 2.48 million ETH are lining up to stake, waiting 43 days. 40.9 million ETH have been staked (accounting for 33.55% of the total supply). Some are locked up, but the price is hovering at 1880—this divergence is often corrected by the price catching up with on-chain data. Key price levels: Resistance $1,899-$1,913 (break out to $1,945-$1,955), support $1,860-$1,865 (break to $1,835-$1,840). Biggest variable: FOMC decision on Wednesday, July 29. Volume surged above 1905-1910, opening up rebound space; Fall#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
There are finally signs of easing tensions in the Middle East.
On July 25 local time, the United States suspended a new round of airstrikes against Iran that day, ending a 13-day streak of military strikes. Meanwhile, Oman has resumed negotiations for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and there are reports of progress, prompting the market to reassess whether geopolitical risks are cooling down.
However, I believe it is still too early to talk about a possible turnaround.
Although Trump paused the new airstrikes, he also stated that if negotiations fail to achieve U.S. goals, he does not rule out resuming larger-scale military operations. This means that this pause is more like buying time for diplomatic negotiations, rather than the conflict having ended.
For the global market, what truly matters is not whether both sides will temporarily ceasefire, but whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume stable navigation.
About 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Once transportation returns to normal, the geopolitical risk premium previously factored in oil prices is expected to gradually decline; Conversely, if negotiations break down again, energy supply risks could still drive international oil prices higher.
This will also directly impact global capital markets.
In recent times, rising oil prices have reignited concerns about inflation, cooling expectations for Fed rate cuts. If strait risks decrease and oil prices fall, the inflationary pressures on the Federal Reserve will ease, and global risk assets are expected to recover.
This is also worth noting for the crypto market.
If the situation continues to ease and market risk appetite picks up, capital may flow back into risk assets, benefiting mainstream crypto assets such as $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL; If negotiations fail, oil prices rise again, and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, it may continue to weigh on the crypto market.
In addition, changes in crude oil prices can also affect energy-related tokens, such as decentralized energy concepts and some projects in the RWA sector, but the core market sentiment remains $BTC and $ETH, which determine the overall risk appetite of the crypto market.
In the coming days, the market's biggest focus will not be on whether there will be new military actions, but on whether negotiations can achieve substantive results and whether stable navigation in the Strait of Hormuz can be restored.
War affects sentiment, energy affects inflation, but what truly determines market trends remains liquidity.
Therefore, whether focusing on crude oil, US stocks, or the crypto market, one should closely monitor changes in oil prices. Every fluctuation in oil prices could change market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and affect the performance of risk assets such as $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL in the next phase.Big Tech's earnings delivered the reality check the AI trade has been dodging. Alphabet and Tesla both reported, and both stocks sank, not on weak results (Google Cloud grew 82%) but on rising AI capex guidance. The market has flipped: spending on AI used to be rewarded as vision, now it's scrutinized as cost.
This is the same story that hit semis all week, viewed from the demand side. Investors aren't questioning whether AI is real; they're questioning the return on hundreds of billions in capex before the revenue catches up. For crypto it's a useful mirror: narratives get repriced the moment the market demands proof over promise. Risk-off today (BTC $64K) echoes that same "show me the ROI" mood bleeding across tech.
Just my read, not advice.$TSLA
#EarningsRealityCheck 🔥 Interesting Infrastructure Observation
A review of the STEPN $PI deposit mechanism suggests that deposit addresses follow a shared muxed address structure commonly used in the Pi/Stellar ecosystem.
Key observations:
• When users select Deposit, they receive a unique M-address (muxed address).
• These M-addresses appear to resolve to the same parent G-address.
• Blockchain explorer data indicates that the parent address has been labelled as an OKX-associated wallet.
How the system appears to work:
1. A single parent G-address acts as the main on-chain account.
2. Each user receives a unique M-address linked to that parent account.
3. Deposits are sent to the user's M-address and attributed to the shared parent account through the muxed address system.
Deposit flow:
Your Pi Wallet → Your M-Address → Shared Parent G-Address
This architecture is consistent with the Pi/Stellar muxed address design, allowing many users to deposit to a single on-chain account while maintaining unique deposit identifiers.
⚠️ Important: This observation only suggests an infrastructure-level connection. It does not confirm a partnership, ownership, custody arrangement, or any official relationship with OKX. Such conclusions require official confirmation from the relevant parties.
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause #三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币
Samsung is about to put USDC into its wallet, so Galaxy users will be able to pay for a cup of coffee with stablecoins in the future
At Samsung's Galaxy Unpacked event in London, it was announced that Samsung Wallet will natively support stablecoins. Not only will it store bank cards, boarding passes, and hotel room keys, but stablecoins will also be directly integrated, so there's no need to download a separate app; you can send and receive payments directly by opening the system wallet.
The demo interface showed Circle's USDC. Although Samsung has not officially confirmed partners or launch dates, the direction is very clear. Samsung's product manager said: "Samsung Wallet will go beyond cash and savings to embrace new forms of digital value, including stablecoins."
Honestly, this is happening faster than I expected.
Samsung started working on crypto back in 2019. The Galaxy S10 already had a built-in hardware-level blockchain wallet protected by the Knox security system for private keys, gradually supporting mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and TRX. Last October, Samsung also partnered deeply with Coinbase, allowing US Galaxy users to buy coins directly in the wallet.
Adding stablecoins this time is like completing the last piece of the puzzle: buying coins, storing coins, and spending coins, all seamlessly connected.
At the event, Samsung also launched its first US credit card, Galaxy Card, in partnership with Barclays and Visa, offering 3% cashback on Samsung Wallet transactions and 5% cashback on Samsung product purchases. With the payment card and stablecoins in the same app, users can choose whichever they prefer when paying.
What does this mean for us?
Stablecoins have finally gained a system-level entry point from a phone manufacturer. Hundreds of millions of Galaxy devices will come pre-installed with this feature, so users don’t need to be educated to download a new app, register on an exchange, or understand what private keys are—they can just open the wallet and use it. This is a completely different concept from when only crypto enthusiasts were involved.
However, some details have not been disclosed yet: which stablecoins will be supported, when it will launch, which regions will get it first, and whether private keys will be managed by users or Samsung. These will determine whether it’s a truly useful tool or just another half-finished product.
But the big picture is set: stablecoins are moving from exchanges into everyday life, from the crypto circle to ordinary mobile users.
$SAMSUNG $USDT $USDC Big Tech's earnings delivered the reality check the AI trade has been dodging. Alphabet and Tesla both reported, and both stocks sank, not on weak results (Google Cloud grew 82%) but on rising AI capex guidance. The market has flipped: spending on AI used to be rewarded as vision, now it's scrutinized as cost.
This is the same story that hit semis all week, viewed from the demand side. Investors aren't questioning whether AI is real; they're questioning the return on hundreds of billions in capex before the revenue catches up. For crypto it's a useful mirror: narratives get repriced the moment the market demands proof over promise. Risk-off today (BTC $64K) echoes that same "show me the ROI" mood bleeding across tech.
Just my read, not advice.
#EarningsRealityCheck #OKXOrbitMarket Differentiated Pricing: Capital has shifted from broad pursuit to highly selective, with most altcoins still not embraced by liquidity
Which assets have already priced in the premium of this small bullish candle, and which have yet to gain capital confirmation?
Core facts from the original text: The current market is not a broad breakout but rather extremely selective capital flow, concentrated into a few targets. Specifically: capital flows led by BTC, with $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP receiving significant liquidity; $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS maintaining momentum; while $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA are experiencing capital outflows. BTC, ETH, SOL, TAO, WLD, HYPE, DOGE, ZEC are defined as structural pillars, respectively serving as liquidity anchors, institutional allocation, high Beta choices, AI narratives, risk appetite indicators, and retail sentiment gauges.
Capital Behavior Repricing: The market structure is shifting from a "broad rally expectation" to a "capital efficiency game." Priced in are: BTC as the primary liquidity return anchor, with its price reflecting the dual demand of capital risk aversion and concentrated allocation at this stage. The institutional capital channel pricing of ETH has also been factored in. Variables not yet priced in include: whether liquidity exhaustion of most altcoins (especially the weaker ones listed) has bottomed, and whether there is a path for capital to diffuse from a few strong coins to the rest of the sectors. Current capital behavior shows that capital is not rotating but accelerating contraction into a few targets, implying that overall altcoin recovery requires additional catalysts rather than relying solely on BTC stabilization.
Transmission Logic: BTC's rise attracts limited incremental funds through ETFs and spot markets, but institutional capital has not overflowed into ETH and secondary altcoins; ETH's strength relies more on its own ecosystem narratives (such as restaking, ETF expectations) rather than BTC transmission. SOL remains a Beta tool chosen by both retail and institutions, but its capital inflow speed diverges from BTC. HYPE's rise reflects the market's marginal acceptance of high-risk assets, but if its price falls, it will directly compress the overall risk premium space for altcoins.
Bullish Path: If BTC remains stable at the current level and pillar assets like ETH/SOL do not see capital outflows, capital may gradually and tentatively spread from strong coins (such as JELLYJELLY, MEME) to other low-position altcoins, forming localized rotation. Conditions: BTC weekly chart does not break key support, and weak coins' trading volume stops falling and rebounds.
Bearish Risk: If BTC experiences a pullback, capital will prioritize withdrawing from all non-BTC assets, and weak coins may see significantly amplified declines due to lack of liquidity support. Conditions: BTC daily chart breaks short-term moving averages with volume, or risk indicators like HYPE experience a sharp retreat.
Core Observation: The core contradiction in current market pricing is not BTC's rise or fall, but structural fragility caused by extremely uneven capital distribution. If liquidity in weak coins continues to deteriorate, even if BTC maintains a high level, the overall altcoin market may undergo a secondary deleveraging.
Discussion Question: If capital continues to concentrate on BTC and a few strong coins, which sectors or narratives do you think are most likely to become the next liquidity breakthrough point? #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
The US military pauses airstrikes, $BTC finally get a breather this time?
Of course, a timeout is better than playing continuously, but it's not time to pop champagne yet. Whether navigation can resume in the strait and whether oil prices can truly fall is far more useful than simply saying "pause."
If crude oil remains at a high level, inflation and rate cut expectations will continue to struggle, and BTC will find it hard to completely ignore macroeconomic sentiment.
Now, all we can say is that one piece of bad news is gone, and complete safety is still far off.🚪 **Two exchanges announced shutdowns in three days—has the bear market started spreading from candlesticks to the industry? **
On July 23, BitMEX announced it would cease operations in September; On July 26, BitMart also began an orderly shutdown:
New registrations, deposits, and new positions will be suspended, and all trading will cease on August 26. After the announcement, the platform token BMX dropped nearly 59% within 24 hours.
But I don't want to directly define it as a "wave of exchange closures."
BitMEX's market share has long been less than 0.01%, making it more like an old platform obsolete by the times; BitMart still covers multiple businesses including spot, futures, and earn, and its exit adds another layer of weight to this matter.
🐻 The damage a bear market causes to exchanges usually occurs along a chain:
**Token price declines → fewer users → trading frequency decreases → fee income shrinks → liquidity concentrates at the top → deepens on non-leading platforms → continues user loss. **
So often, users leave first, market makers leave later, and only then is it the exchange's turn to close.
Exchange shutdowns are usually not the start of a bear market, but rather the lag of long-standing operational pressure. It doesn't necessarily mean BTC will crash again tomorrow, but it does indicate that the bear market has moved from the candlestick into the industry's profit sheet.
Currently, BitMart is still open for withdrawals and has not disclosed any funding holes, so it cannot be equated with an FTX-style collapse.
What really needs to be observed next:
(1) Whether withdrawals are ongoing and normal
(2) Whether there is an asset gap
(3) Whether the risk has spread to other platforms
If not, it's an industry clearance; Only if runs and chain reactions begin to occur could it escalate into systemic risk.
**BitMEX is like a tombstone from an old era, while BitMart has started acting like an industry signal. ** 👀$BTC Today, July 26th, the long-awaited difficulty adjustment across the internet is finally about to be implemented—a direct 16% slash sounds like giving miners a breath of immortality. Machines still powered up saw their expected returns per ton of computing power instantly swell. After enduring so long shutdowns, they finally had a breathing room, but reality was harsher than the market. The $19 billion AI computing power order was pulling mining industry giants out of the $BTC market one by one. Electricity contracts are too expensive, debt burdens are overwhelming, and even if the difficulty is discounted by 14%, business logic simply doesn't balance the score. The amount of coins mined is nowhere near enough to pay electricity bills and interest. I noticed many sisters are still watching the shutdown price, thinking that once the difficulty eases, miners will come back to support the market. Don't be naive. Major mining companies are now talking about H100 and AI training clusters, not S19 mining rigs. That 16% reduction in burden is like giving a 500 yuan raise to someone who wants to change jobs—the other party has already written their resignation letter, and the roar of the mining machine will only grow thinner. Computing power may be temporarily stable, but the morale behind it has already dispersed. AI is holding trays while smiling as it sweeps away our mining circle. How far do you think this wave can go? Share your target price in the comments section#特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战事 #芯片股反弹 US short position hits a record high of #KOSPI大涨5.85%, chip short squeeze rebounds #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
Before the adjournment of the CLARITY Act, passing the bill is hopeless; Trump's "$1.4 billion crypto ledger" is personally killing regulatory reform
Thune's latest statement essentially declared the CLARITY Act to be executed before the August recess. But blaming everything on "no time" is too naive—the real killer of the bill is the Trump family's unclearable crypto ledger.
This isn't a scheduling issue, it's a matter of trust
The votes the Democrats need (at least 7) are there, but at the cost of an ethical clause that truly blocks the transfer of interests. What about the version the Republicans presented? Only officials and their spouses were restricted; children were not allowed to intervene; Limiting only "direct interests"—does Trump's indirect holding of about 38% of WLFI through DT Marks DEFI LLC count? I don't know; Moreover, the clause will expire in January 2029. Who are they trying to fool with this "strictest ever" policy of leaving backdoors everywhere?
I believe "indirect shareholding" is the real lifeline
The Trump family has earned about $1.4 billion through meme coins and crypto businesses. What Democrats want is independent law enforcement powers for state attorneys generals, preventing the Attorney General appointed by Trump from investigating themselves. Is this demand too much? The current president's conflict of interest issues are not resolved, yet he wants to first give the industry a "compliance framework," which logically makes no sense.
The probability drops to 33%, and the window is closing
Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of approval in 2026 to 33%, half of what it was after the May committee passed. By the time the meeting resumes in September, given the political atmosphere before the midterm elections, such controversial voting is basically out of reach. Those who hope the bill can be delayed until the lame duck session or even the next Congress will likely be disappointed—the composition and agenda priorities of Congress will likely render all current efforts worthwhile.🔎 What are the real benefits of this $SHIB rally? (Let's clarify before diving into the story)
1. Sudden control of the Korean trading order: Upbit's SHIB/KRW trading pair accounts for 10%+ of global trading volume. Korean retail investors "Ant Army" bought heavily over the weekend, with two rally waves corresponding to the Korean trading activity period, with higher premiums than Binance.
2. The Sleeping Whale Revives: An old wallet dormant for over half a year suddenly used 125,000 U to withdraw 30 billion SHIB from Binance, while another address accumulated 50 billion+ RMB+ in accumulation, signaling strong on-chain confidence.
3. Explosive Burn Rate: Single-day burn rate soared to 3200%+, with about 225 million permanently burned in 24 hours, instantly igniting the deflationary narrative.
4. Continued outflow of exchange balances: CryptoQuant shows that SHIB centralized platform reserves have dropped for weeks, selling pressure has been drained, and even a little buying can rebound.
5. Ecosystem + regulatory margins: Shibarium activity rebounds, Purinta on Morpho adds SHIB as collateral; The US classified SHIB as a digital commodity, and Japan's FIEA amendment placed it on the compliance whitelist, improving institutional channel expectations.
6. Meme sector sentiment rebounds: PEPE rose 9% and DOGE rose 5-6% over the same period. Funds rotated within memes, with SHIB selected for its greatest resilience.
Simply put: Korean funds + whale covering + surge in burns + selling pressure bottomed out + meme rotation—five forces twisted together, with thin depth over the weekend, and short positions becoming fuel.
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 KB Kookmin Bank, South Korea's largest bank, will launch cross-border payment services in August, running on JPMorgan's Kinexys blockchain and covering 10 countries. It's not unusual for banks to issue their own chains, but this is JPMorgan's chain being widely commercialized by third-party banks, which is far more meaningful than playing behind closed doors. Traditional financial blockchain infrastructure is shifting from experimentation to interconnectivity.Rare price differences have appeared. The situation in the Middle East has cooled, and the on-chain market has become completely disconnected from traditional oil markets
This weekend, the biggest global macro variable was focused on the Middle East geopolitical situation. After days of tense confrontation, the atmosphere has noticeably cooled, with both core conflicting parties simultaneously signaling concessions, directly reversing the previous one-sided bullish sentiment in the crude oil market.
According to multiple sources, the U.S. has announced it will temporarily shelve its military strike plans against Iran and will not launch a new round of airstrikes; In response, Iran halted all reciprocal retaliatory actions, leaving ample window for negotiations on navigation, and the risks of blockades and oil supply disruptions—feared by the market—have greatly diminished.
Geopolitical panic was the core driver supporting the sustained surge in oil prices recently. After risk eased, funds concentrated to exit and cash in on long positions. On-chain derivatives platforms trading 24×/7 were the first to react, with crude oil-related contracts experiencing a sharp plunge. Brent crude oil prices fell to $87.473, with a single-day cumulative drop of nearly 5%, quickly absorbing the previously accumulated geopolitical premiums.
Here is a detail that most traders easily fall into: traditional on-exchange crude oil futures follow a fixed trading schedule, with no trading volume throughout the weekend, and the price remains fixed at last Friday's close of $93.16, with no sign of the weekend's major positive news.
The two trading channels form a huge price gap, representing completely different capital expectations. On-chain markets have already digested expectations of a conflict easing in advance, completing a deep correction; Regular futures on the market are still stuck in the high price range seen during the escalation of the conflict. By Monday morning opening, the traditional oil market is very likely to experience a large gap and open lower, converging toward on-chain contract prices.
However, this round of declines should be viewed rationally. Currently, this is only a temporary ceasefire negotiation, and the core differences between the two sides have not been completely resolved. The negotiation process could be reversed at any time. The future crude oil volatility window will be concentrated during Monday's opening session. Whether trading commodities or crypto-related energy stocks, investors should watch for sharp fluctuations caused by gaps in advance.BTC Evening Market Analysis: $64,600 resistance remains unbroken, short-term rebound momentum exhausted
On the evening of July 26, 2026, Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly near $64,500, with the white market repeatedly attempting to test the key resistance at $64,600 without success. Although ETF funds saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows for seven consecutive days in the first half of July, pushing prices back from a low of $58,550 to $66,601, a single-day ETF outflow of $225 million on July 24 ended this inflow. The current Fear and Greed Index is only 26 (fear), and market sentiment is still in a recovery phase. Technically, the 4-hour timeframe shows $64,600 has become the core battleground for bullish and bearish battles, and a breakout with increased volume could open upside potential to $68,000; Conversely, if resistance persists, the probability of a short-term pullback testing the $63,500 support will rise significantly.
1. Market Review: The Recovery Path from $58,550 to $66,601
In early July, Bitcoin briefly dropped to a monthly low of $58,550, marking another significant low since the all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025. At that time, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a record net outflow of $4.06 billion in June, with the Fear and Greed Index once falling to the extreme fear range of 10, and the market was filled with strong pessimism.
However, in mid-July, the market experienced a structural turnaround. From July 6 to July 21, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, attracting approximately $980 million in cumulative inflows. This round of institutional capital has driven Bitcoin to rebound from $58,550 to $66,601 on July 22, with monthly gains exceeding 13%. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick maintained his $100,000 target for the end of 2026 during this period, calling this pullback a "buy opportunity" rather than a warning sign.
But the road to rebound was not smooth. On July 24, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of about $225 million, with BlackRock IBIT Fund alone accounting for about $202 million in redemptions, ending a seven-day streak of net inflows. This capital shift directly caused Bitcoin to fall from a high of $66,601 to consolidate within the $64,000-$65,000 range.
As of the evening of July 26, Bitcoin was trading at about $64,354, up 0.32% in 24 hours, but down about 0.7% over the 7 days. During the white session, prices stabilized and rebounded after finding support at the $63,900 low, and are again testing the intraday high of $64,600. However, after multiple attempts to break through this resistance level, the market has failed to effectively break through and hold steady, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears at this level. Currently, the price is fluctuating narrowly around $64,500. Although bulls still maintain a short-term advantage, further upward moves clearly lack incremental capital support.
2. Technical Analysis: $64,600 marks the dividing line between bulls and bears
Looking at the 4-hour cycle, this round of bottoming rebound has entered a recovering phase, with the K-line center steadily rising, and the short-term EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 moving averages continuously diverging upward, setting the tone for a short-term trend of volatile upward movement. A clear support structure has formed near $63,900, and each pullback to this level quickly gains buying support, indicating solid support below.
However, $64,600 has become the most critical resistance level at present. During the pullback after reaching a high of $66,601 on July 22, the price has faced strong resistance near $64,600 at least twice before pulling back. This area concentrates a large number of previously trapped positions and short-term profit-taking consolidations, forming an insurmountable "air wall."
From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading below all major moving averages (50-day EMA around $65,143-$65,707, 100-day MA around $68,100-$70,173, 200-day EMA around $74,705), indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet completed its correction. The $65,500–$65,700 range, where the 50-day EMA lies, is a key defensive line that bulls must reclaim first, while the July high area of $66,500–$66,930 is the most important signal to confirm a trend reversal.
The current reading of the RSI (14) is around 52.3, in a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold, indicating that the market still has some room to move. The MACD indicator hovers near the zero axis, with weak bullish momentum that has not fully dissipated. Bollinger Bands show prices running above the middle band, but there is significant resistance on the upper band, further confirming the resistance strength in the $64,600-$65,000 range.
In terms of trading volume, there was a clear increase in volume when the recent challenge to $64,600 occurred, but no effective breakout was formed. This is often interpreted as a typical signal of "volume stagnation"—buying power is being depleted, while selling pressure remains heavy. If trading volume shrinks when it attempts to break through this level again, the probability of a failed breakout will increase significantly.
3. Capital Flows: Institutional divisions intensify, ETF inflows reverse
Capital flows are the core variable in this rally. The continuous net inflows of ETFs in the first half of July were once seen by the market as a positive signal for institutions to re-enter the market, but the sharp single-day outflows on July 24 shattered this optimistic narrative.
According to Farside Investors, single-day net inflows were $265.7 million on July 6, $181.1 million on July 14, $132.3 million on July 17, and $107.7 million on July 15—these figures truly demonstrate the resilience of institutional demand. However, on July 24, BlackRock's IBIT outflow of $202.5 million to $212.2 million in a single day almost erased the previous days' accumulation.
Deeper data reveals internal divisions within institutions. Galaxy Research's holdings data show that selling mainly came from hedge funds and brokerages—hedge funds reduced their holdings by about 31,400 BTC (a 39% decrease). #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in negotiations on the opening of the strait $BTC $ETH $SOL #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展
The next few days will be lively again.
Judging from the earnings reports released in the past few days, it’s really a case of whoever reports, drops.
Let’s see if the next few can stop the downward trend.
A bunch of major news events are colliding: the Federal Reserve meeting, Microsoft and Meta earnings, GDP, PCE inflation, plus Amazon and Apple’s earnings all coming one after another.
Google, Tesla, and Nvidia have basically submitted their reports early. Google’s free cash flow turned negative, Tesla’s profits were cut in half. Don’t be fooled by Nvidia’s impressive on-paper $10 billion unrealized gains; the absurd valuation and highly concentrated customer base are real risks that make one uneasy upon closer inspection.
Wednesday brings the main event, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged; the focus is on Powell’s statements. My view is that he will still sound hawkish verbally but won’t dare to truly tighten liquidity. Right now, many tech companies are aggressively investing in AI; a forced tightening would impact the entire computing power sector. Microsoft is closely watching Azure’s growth rate; if it falls below 38%, I would choose to reduce holdings. Meta’s market has been sluggish for the past six months; if Zuckerberg announces continued heavy spending on AI again, funds will likely flee.
Thursday’s pressure is even greater, with GDP and PCE data released before the market opens. The market’s biggest fear now is stagflation—economic slowdown with persistently high inflation. If inflation stays around 2.5%, high-valuation tech stocks will inevitably continue to face pressure.
Bank of America estimates Amazon AWS growth at 33%; if the data meets expectations, Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Micron in the computing power and storage chain still have a chance; if not, the entire sector will fluctuate. Don’t listen too much to Cook’s projections; focus on real sales in the Chinese market.
In the past two years, the market was willing to buy into the AI story; now investors are more realistic and only recognize solid cash flow. The next few days will be a big test.
Those that keep burning cash without delivering returns or have a single customer structure will be exposed. $KAITO is showing strong bullish momentum on OKX, trading at $1.1698 with an impressive +15.91% gain after hitting a 24-hour high of $1.1865.
Driven by a solid daily green candle and a clear breakout above its moving averages (MA5: 1.0280, MA10: 0.9754), this AI-category token is demonstrating strong buying interest with a 24-hour trading volume of 3.20M KAITO ($3.38M USDT turnover).
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 $ADA /USD - BREAKOUT WATCH
Live: $0.16490 (+0.12% 1D)
Support: $0.15530 | Resistance: $0.19980
Downside target: $0.13305 | Invalidation: $0.20648
- Staying below orange resistance keeps the defensive setup active.
- Losing green support confirms the downside pathMarket consolidation is becoming increasingly selective.
Instead of lifting the entire market, liquidity is concentrating in a small number of assets while many others continue to struggle. This is often a sign of a more mature market, where investors prioritise quality over broad speculation.
Among the stronger performers, $LPT has shown notable momentum, while assets like $FIL have also posted encouraging gains. On the other hand, projects such as $SCR, $ALLO, $KITE, and $RE continue to face selling pressure, highlighting how quickly capital can rotate away from weaker narratives.
Meanwhile, $BTC remains the market's primary liquidity anchor, with $ETH continuing to attract institutional interest. Not every asset will participate equally in the next move, making capital rotation an important trend to monitor.
In this environment, patience and selectivity matter more than ever. Focus on assets showing sustained strength, wait for confirmation, and let price action—not emotion—guide your decisions.
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
U.S. military pauses airstrikes on Iraq: The truth is to secure votes for the November midterm elections
The US military halted airstrikes, there has been progress in the Strait negotiations, and oil prices have fallen—don't think the Middle East will be peaceful.
Trump's previous string of airstrikes on Iran was intended to solidify the conservative base through a tough image, but it went completely wrong: oil prices broke below $100, fuel prices surged across the U.S., and inflation data turned upward.
The Democrats immediately seized this weak spot, blaming Trump for "rising oil prices and runaway inflation." Blue-collar voters in swing states were dissatisfied, and the Republican House seat continued to narrow.
The core logic is simple: Trump wants to secure the November midterm elections, and oil prices can't rise any further.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
This election does not elect a president, only seizes control of Congress
With 435 seats in the House of Representatives + 35 seats in the Senate, the Republican Party now holds a very weak advantage, leading by only 5 House seats. After losing the House, Trump has two years left to become a mere formality, unable to push any bills, including CLARITY.
- Direct consequences: If the Republicans lose the House of Representatives, Trump will become a "lame duck" president, and all subsequent bills (including the crypto industry nuclear CLARITY Act) will be locked in bipartisan tug-of-war, making it nearly impossible to push forward, and possibly even facing impeachment initiated by Democrats.
- For the crypto industry, whether the CLARITY Act can be implemented and whether regulation is tight or lenient does not depend on whether Trump calls for crypto, but on whether the Republicans can hold Congress in the midterm elections. Only by holding the line can there be legislative space; if not, don't expect substantial relaxation within two years.
The direct impact on the crypto world of $BTC and ETH
✅ Oil prices retreated→ inflationary pressure eased→ rate cut expectations slightly recovered, and BTC showed a short-term sentiment rebound;
❌ Don't expect progress on the CLARITY bill recently; Trump won't push it hard before the election, fearing criticism of abusing power for personal gain;
⚠️ $BZ. $CL Oil prices and compliance concepts should not be one-sided; these are all temporary market trends. The real turning point will wait for the election results in November.
In short: There are 100 days left until the midterm elections. All policies serve the votes, and all market trends are emotional fluctuations—don't get carried away.Grass (GRASS) price trend on July 26 and expert analysis:
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📊 Price Trends in Late July (Actual Data)
According to CoinLore historical data, GRASS's performance from July 22 to 25 is as follows:
Date Opening Price Highest Price Lowest Price Closing Price Turnover
July 22: 0.3713, 0.3907, 0.3667, 0.3688, 11.1m
July 23: 0.3696, 0.3756, 0.3518, 0.3573, 9.9m
July 24: 0.3581, 0.3630, 0.3291, 0.3348, 10.6m
July 25: 0.3351, 0.3445, 0.3305, 0.3422, 7.6m
Key observation: After the claim channel opened on July 22, GRASS fell for three consecutive days, falling from 0.3688 to 0.3348, a cumulative drop of about 9.2%; On July 25, there was a slight rebound to 0.3422, but volume shrank to 7.6m (a recent low), indicating insufficient buying pressure.
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🔮 July 26 trend forecast
Since the current (July 26, 19:43) daily K-line has not yet closed, some prediction models provide reference ranges:
- 3Commas forecast: July 26 price range 0.3198 – 0.3213
- CoinCodex Forecast: May test down to 0.3033 within this week
⚠️ > The above are algorithmic predictions, not actual transaction prices, for reference only.
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🎯 Expert interpretation: Four core contradictions
1️⃣ Positive airdrop vs. supply selling pressure
On July 22, the second quarter rewards officially opened for claims, but the rewards were replaced by USDC instead of GRASS tokens—meaning the potential selling pressure on about 170 million tokens has not yet materialized, which is a short-term positive for holders. However, in July, 21.73 million tokens were still unlocked (accounting for 5.18% of market cap), and combined with 33.4 million tokens unlocked on June 28, supply-side pressure persists.
2️⃣ Community sentiment deteriorates
A large number of node users reported that "after two years of idleness, only received a few USDC dollars," and "uninstall Grass" became a popular buzzword in the community. The controversy over points statistics (Uptime Points vs Network Points) further weakened user stickiness. The breakdown of community consensus is often a precursor to prolonged price pressure.
3️⃣ Technically, bears dominate
- The price continues to move below all major moving averages (30-day and 50-day SMAs).
- The 50-day SMA is at 0.4406, with the current price deviating by about 22%
- The Fear and Greed Index stands at only 27 (fear), indicating a pessimistic market sentiment
- Volatility reaches 13.25%, with significant short-term volatility risk
4️⃣ Fundamentals still have bright spots
Unlike other purely speculative tokens, Grass has commercialized its implementation—generating real revenue by selling compliant datasets to AI labs, with over 8.5 million registered users in 190 countries worldwide, and has received investments from top institutions such as Polychain Capital and Tribe Capital. This provides some support for long-term value.
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📉 Comprehensive judgment
Dimension Rating Explanation
Short-term (1-7 days): ⚠️ Bearish bias: Unlocking selling pressure + funds flowing out after withdrawal, shrinking trading volume, weak rebound
Mid-term (January-March): ➡️ Volatility Airdrop controversy digestion period; monitor user retention and AI data revenue progress
Long-term (June+) 📊 Wait-and-see depends on the overall recovery of the DePIN sector and the deepening of project commercialization
Key price points for reference:
- Support levels: 0.3300 (July 24 low), 0.3033 (forecast low)
- Resistance levels: 0.3600 (July 23 high), 0.3900 (July 22 high)
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💡 > Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. The above analysis is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. GRASS is currently down about 87% from its all-time high of 3.89. In a highly volatile environment, strictly control your positions. $GRASS With South Korea's storage giant signing a massive long-term deal with Nvidia, Micron $MU's share in the high-end computing power supply chain is facing a vacuum period. The capacity supply expectations brought by Changxin Memory's IPO are being transmitted through risk appetite to the valuation model of the semiconductor sector. If aggressive market pricing leads to aggressive share concessions, margin pressure will become the main issue. If industry capital expenditure contracts more than expected, the logic of supply-demand mismatch will be reversed. Focus on the range of gross margin changes in subsequent quarterly financial reports.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in negotiations on the opening of the strait #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧📉 内因：AI“烧钱”引发信任危机，财报成导火索 市场开始重新审视AI投资的真实回报。谷歌和特斯拉的财报成了直接导火索： 谷歌（Alphabet）：云业务虽增长强劲，但2026年资本支出预期被大幅上调至1950亿至2050亿美元，导致自由现金流数十年来首次转负。市场将其解读为“投入产出比堪忧”。 特斯拉（Tesla）：交付量虽创新高，但第二季度自由现金流同样转负，经营利润同比大降57%。AI、机器人和新产线的巨大投入持续挤压利润率。 这两份财报加深了市场的核心疑虑：“AI何时才能稳定产生真金白银的回报？”。这一疑虑迅速蔓延，导致整个“七巨头”遭遇15个月来最惨烈的抛售，市值单日蒸发约7970亿美元。 🔥 外因：地缘冲突推高油价，引爆加息预期 与此同时，外部宏观环境急剧恶化，起到了推波助澜的作用： 油价破百，通胀再起：中东局势升级，也门胡塞武装袭击红海油轮，叠加美国威胁军事打击伊朗，推动布伦特原油时隔数月再次突破100美元/桶。 加息预期骤升，股债双杀：油价飙升迅速点燃了市场对通胀和美联储被迫加息的恐慌。市场预期下周（7月28-29日）加息概率从一周前的约10%飙升至近40%，9月加Big Tech earnings highlighted a shift in how markets are pricing the AI narrative.
Despite strong operating results, including robust cloud growth, investors focused on rising AI capital expenditure rather than revenue momentum. What was once rewarded as long-term vision is now being judged on expected returns and execution.
The same theme has been weighing on the semiconductor sector. The question is no longer whether AI is transformative—it's whether the enormous investment can generate meaningful returns within a reasonable timeframe.
$BTC
Crypto is facing a similar dynamic. Narratives can drive momentum, but markets eventually demand fundamentals. When expectations outpace results, valuations get repriced.
With risk sentiment cooling and BTC trading under pressure, the broader message across markets is clear: investors want evidence, not just potential.
#CLARITYActStalled #EarningsRealityCheck #USIranStrikePause Guys, SCR dropped another 7.8% today, now at $0.02066. It opened at $1.44 in October 2024, now at $0.02—down 98.6%, breaking below the July all-time low of $0.0258. Ether.fi Cash crypto credit card migrated from Scroll to OP mainnet, taking away 70,000 active cards and about 160 million TVL, which was once Scroll's highest-earning core app. Since the migration and implementation, the Scroll ecosystem has continued to bleed, TVL turned negative, and the number of active on-chain applications has dropped sharply. Scroll brought cryptography, Optimism brought checkbook. Three Mountains Pressing Down 1. Token dilution: 1 billion total supply, only 19% circulating, the remaining 81% gradually unlocked 2. Governance Crisis: DAO Members Resign Collectively, New Proposal Approval Suspended 3. DeFi withdrawal: Aave is considering reducing risk exposure. Lido will stop cross-chain bridge services with SCR only serving governance functions, without protocol yield dividends, no deflation mechanisms, and no staking yield capture; Recently, the average daily network fees have remained at extremely low levels. ZKRollup's technical narrative is correct, but Scroll's pockets are too shallow in the L2 "checkbook race." If 0.020 cannot hold, the lower level will open. Before clear positive news reverses the downward trend, every rebound could be an exit opportunity. Personal market view analysis and market information compilationHere’s why $HYPE won while everyone else fumbled.
Polymarket and Kalshi both said launching a token would be a mistake. Their take was that a token creates messy value accrual and misaligned incentives. So they stayed away.
Hyperliquid did the exact opposite from day one.
They built $HYPE to capture value directly in the protocol. Early users got rewarded. Early believers got rich. And those people didn’t just sell and leave. They turned into superfans who actually defend and grow the product.
That’s the difference.
Most projects treat the token like an afterthought. Hyperliquid made the token the engine. When holders win, the protocol wins. When the protocol wins, holders win harder.
Value accrual plus aligned incentives equals real community. That’s why $HYPE worked, and why the others are still explaining why they don’t have a token.
#CLARITYActStalled #EarningsRealityCheck 1 Gwei, can you believe it? Ethereum gas is so low that each transfer costs just a few cents, and DeFi interactions are as smooth as drinking water. Stack 2, cross-chain bridges, and DEX transactions—just tap your wallet lightly and no longer have to worry about gas fees. But the coin holders couldn't smile. Why? Because the EIP-1559 destruction mechanism is stalling. The current situation is somewhat similar to the third quarter of last year—$ETH fee income has dropped to rock bottom, with daily burns less than 100 tokens. The online inflation rate quietly climbed, and the original narrative of deflation turned into "mild inflation." Market sentiment is very divided. Retail investors think it's great to be cheap, while the 'Hair-Farming Party' is aggressively stockpiling trading volume, and L2 ecosystem activity has reached a new high. But the bulls are bitter—they can't burn coins on-chain, and the $ETH supply hasn't decreased but actually expanded slightly. Some people dug up old maps from 2022 for comparison and found that basic tier activities are indeed quiet now, with big money flowing into L2. If you play it safe, these numbers are actually within expectations. After the Cancun upgrade, L2s inherit security but don't need to burn as much gas on the mainnet. Ethereum's scaling path is to make the mainnet the settlement layer. But the problem is, much of the market's belief in "ultrasonic money" is built on deflationary narratives. When gas drops, a piece of narrative is missing. I actually think now is not the time to be pessimistic. 1 Gwei precisely shows that Ethereum scaling has succeeded. Millions of people interact on L2, with fees so cheap it's negligible—this is what a large-scale bridge is. The burn is only temporary; wait for on-chain applications to explode,$MU On the 24th, the South Korean president visited the U.S. and signed $700 billion long-term contracts with Nvidia for SK Hynix and Samsung. Currently, there is no deal with Micron or SanDisk, and with ChangXin Memory's listing on Monday, the dual pressure is weighing on Micron and SanDisk#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $SNDK $SPCX
Why did Google and Tesla's financial reports "die in the light"?
The market looks not only at performance but also at future expectations.
Google: Cloud business growth of 82% is positive, but capital expenditures soared to nearly $200 billion, resulting in negative cash flow.
The market is asking: "With so much money spent on AI, how soon will it take to recoup the profits?" "—So he sold first to hedge the risk.
Tesla: Delivery Record High, but Profits Plunge 57%.
Excessive investment in new cars and robots has led the market to worry about declining profitability, causing the stock price to plunge.
Why didn't Bitcoin follow the decline this time?
Because the reasons for the decline differ. This US stock market decline is due to an internal industry issue called "AI investment returns," while Bitcoin has no earnings reports or capital expenditures; it is more directly affected by dollar liquidity and interest rates.
So it temporarily broke out of its independent market.
But this "decoupling" is fragile. If oil prices trigger inflation and the Fed raises rates, the entire market will fall, and BTC will follow suit.
The price is caught between $63,500 (support) and $69,500 (resistance), caught between the upper and lower levels.
Next week is the Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from giants like Microsoft and Amazon, with increased volatility—this is the critical moment for deciding the direction.
My advice: In the 63.5K-69.5K range, patience is more important than direction.
Don't rush to chase rises or cut losses; wait for the price to break through or break below the range, then follow the trend. Risk control always comes first; single losses should not exceed 0.5% of total funds. $GOOGL Aunt Ai posted that Changxin Memory (CXMT) will be listed on the STAR Market on July 27, and the CXMT contract pricing mechanism, funding rate, and liquidity performance on Hyperliquid will undergo important testing. Analysis points out that after Changxin's official listing, the contract price of Hyperliquid's CXMT contract will gradually shift from the internal oracle price during the pre-IPO phase to the external oracle price tracking the true trading price of A-shares.
Specifically, when the STAR Market opens and the market has sufficiently stable external price data, the system will automatically trigger a price switch. The new price anchor is converted by TradeXYZ's internal oracle generated from the order book, which tracks Changxin A-share spot prices and converts them to external oracle prices based on real-time exchange rates.
Since oracle prices update about every 3 seconds and each change is limited to ±1%, even if contract prices deviate significantly from the real market price during the pre-IPO phase, convergence is achieved gradually, but liquidation risks may still arise during the process.
Regarding funding rates, after Changxin's listing, the Hyperliquid CXMT contract will return to its normal mechanism. In the previous pre-IPO phase, to reduce the funding cost for traders waiting for listing, the funding rate multiplier was only 1% of the normal contract, dropping from 0.5 to 0.005. After the official listing, this parameter will revert to 0.5, and the funding rate adjustment function will be reinstated. Regarding price formation during the A-share market closure, analysis suggests that Hyperliquid's CXMT price will return to the internal oracle price formed by its own order book, effectively entering the "inside market" trading phase.NVIDIA and SK Hynix have reached a $500 billion AI cooperation agreement. To clarify the specifics: this is more like a long-term industry chain collaboration, not a $500 billion order fulfilled in a single day.
According to cooperation information, the collaboration covers AI computing power, HBM, and next-generation storage chips. Nvidia needs stable high-bandwidth memory supply, while SK Hynix needs predictable AI platform demand. Both companies are binding tightest production capacity with their strongest customers, aiming to shorten the time from chip design to data center deployment.
I think the significance of this number lies in supply chain lock, not in the title itself. If AI capital spending continues to grow, HBM will become a bottleneck for computing power expansion; If cloud providers start cutting budgets, ultra-large cooperation frameworks will renegotiate pricing and delivery.
Skeptics will say that $500 billion is easily portrayed by the media as guaranteed revenue, or even pushed up valuations in advance. This reminder must be kept. Fat friends, first look at purchase commitments, shipment volume, and cash flow, then look at cooperation amounts.
$NVDA $SKHYNIX #英伟达 #SK海力士After the SpaceX Starship completed its first successful test flight after its launch, the market saw a single launch; what investors truly wanted was the repeatable engineering process.
According to the mission results, this test achieved key flight objectives, indicating that at least part of the launch, stage separation, and return control had already overcome previous failure points. A one-time success cannot replace complete validation; Starship also faces challenges such as thermal protection, engine reliability, and high-frequency reuse.
I think the first success after going public will amplify short-term sentiment in capital markets, but SpaceX's long-term valuation ultimately depends on the cost and turnaround time per launch. Flying once is technical news; being able to stably send payloads into orbit is the real business model.
Skeptics will argue that successful test flights may still be due to sample bias, and regulatory and security reviews will slow things down. This judgment holds true. The interval between next launches, payload quality, and recovery status is more worth documenting than the celebratory video.
$SPACEX #SpaceX #星舰$GOOGL Core pricing conflicts focus on book valuations versus cash flow deviations excluding unearned income. Hedge $200 billion in annualized operating cash flow based on a $4 trillion market cap, reducing the underlying valuation to 20 times.
Structurally, the $4 trillion market cap corresponds to a 20x operating cash flow multiple, forming a strong structural support line below the mid-term price.
The driving forces driving and suppressing valuation revaluation are, in order, core cash flow efficiency, pressure from AI R&D and infrastructure capital expenditure, and the growth performance of digital advertising business.
The bullish breakout scenario is based on quarterly net cash from operating activities stabilizing at the $50 billion level. If the $200 billion annualized cash flow forecast continues to be confirmed, the valuation center will be locked in the low 20-fold range, driving prices upward to create premium space.
The failure signal of this upward scenario is that unchecked expansion of AI infrastructure capital expenditures squeezes profit margins, causing the latest single-quarter operating cash flow to fall significantly below the $46 billion benchmark, directly increasing the actual cash flow multiple.
The trigger for the bearish downward scenario is the slowdown in digital advertising revenue growth combined with capital expenditure pressure. Once quarterly cash flow declines, the market will price again at higher multiples, and attempts to test resistance upward will fail.
When the price falls back to the support zone corresponding to 20 times cash flow and volatility narrows, the downward trend will end, and the market will re-enter a consolidation range.
Over the next seven days, focus on the annualized certainty of the latest $46 billion in operating cash flow for the quarter, as well as the actual erosion of capital expenditures on this cash flow capacity.
#新手必看: Here is everything you need #财报观察员: Who can understand the real answers from Google and Tesla this time? #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元The CLARITY Act proposes to reward white-hat hackers, and regulators are beginning to acknowledge a reality: those who discover vulnerabilities do not necessarily have to face lawyers first.
According to the bill's related discussion text, compliance disclosure, vulnerability fixes, and good faith security research are expected to receive clearer protections, and some white-hat contributions may be incentivized through bounties or liability waivers. For DeFi, reporting a vulnerability early often outweighs post-event accountability.
I think the boundaries of this clause are more important than the "reward amount." What is kindness? Do researchers have to notify the project team first? How long until the project team fixes the issue before making it public? How should responsibilities be divided among cross-chain protocols, front-ends, and smart contracts? These details determine whether it is a safety incentive or a new compliance gray area.
The negative side might say the reward system will encourage more people to attack, and the project team might use the "white hat" label to lower the bounty. This concern is valid, so timelines, evidence retention, and independent dispute resolution are needed. The bill does not offer a get-out-of-jail-free card, but rather a verifiable standard of good faith.
$BTC $ETH #CLARITY法案 #白帽黑客Today is Sunday, the market remains flat as usual. BTC is hovering around 64,000, ETH is stuck repeatedly testing before the 1900 mark. No data or large funds this weekend, like an office on holiday. The lights are still on, but people are already lost in thought. If there's a real change in the past two days, it's hidden in Ethereum. From July 14 to 21, ETF net inflows approached $200 million. BlackRock's ETHA entered at most over 58 million in a single day. Fidelity also launched its own stablecoin FIDD on Ethereum. The institution disappeared for over half a year and suddenly started replying to your messages again This scene is too familiar. Like that ex, who colded you for a whole quarter, then suddenly sent a message late one night saying, 'Are you there?' Your heart is racing but you have to stay alert. One inflow doesn't mean lasting affection; it depends on whether it's passing by or if you really want to stay overnight. The real battle starts tomorrow. The Fed will meet from the 28th to the 29th, and the market generally bets on holding steady for the fifth time. But oil prices have broken the 100-year mark and the probability of a rate hike jumping from 12% to 38% within a week. Don't rush to bet on rate cuts. Upside risks are quietly emerging. So my thoughts are still the same: the most valuable weekend moves are often holding steady It's good that institutions are turning back, but the direction depends on next week's FOMC announcement. Bullets are stocked, and cash is a kind of confidence. Those who can hold hold will have the right to pick the fat and the lean next week. Peace, take a good rest this weekend. The market never lets patient people down. #晚间复盘 #BTC #ETH #以太坊ETF The market data is based on the weekend of July 26: BTC about $64,000, ETH around $1,900Rushing to catch the last train! South Korea's retail investors bought 450 billion won in a single day before the new regulations, and leveraged ETFs are on the verge of bankruptcy
The drama in the Korean stock market is getting more and more exciting. People thought that a strong regulatory crackdown would keep retail investors in check, but instead, Korean retail investors immediately started their final frenzy, frantically buying semiconductor leveraged ETFs before the new regulation took effect on the 31st.
Data shows that on the 24th (Friday), Korean retail investors net bought 453.8 billion won in leveraged individual stock ETFs in a single day, with SK Hynix-related products accounting for 350 billion won. On that day, Samsung and SK both plunged 7%-8%, with these leveraged products dropping 15%-16%, nearly halved compared to the 20,000 won issue price at the end of May. The retail investors' logic is quite peculiar: after such a big drop, it's cheap; if you don't buy No. 31 now, the threshold is 30 million won (about 150,000 yuan), and you won't be eligible to buy.
Behind this is a death spiral for retail investors. At the end of May, South Korea allowed single-share leveraged ETFs, originally aiming to bring funds back, but retail investors rushed in and turned Korean stocks into casinos. Samsung and SK Hynix hold over 60% KOSPI weights; after a flood of leveraged funds, any pullback is a trampling. Since July, multiple circuit breakers have occurred, with over 1.2 million retail accounts hitting margin call thresholds—equivalent to one in every 30 adults facing liquidation. Some people invested 80 million won in wedding home payments, but now a quarter of the unrealized loss can only delay the wedding date; Some borrowed money to expand their principal to 300 million won, and a single pullback wiped it out to zero.
The Financial Services Commission of Korea panicked, directly suspending new product launches, banning advertising, raising the margin threshold to 30 million won with only cash recognition, and limiting trading to 20 shares per transaction. Previously, brokerages had said they would raise the price to 50 million, but later set it at 30 million, leaving retail investors with a last-minute route.
For those still watching from the sidelines, my advice is: don't become a competitor to Korean retail investors! These leveraged ETFs now have a daily rebalancing mechanism, so when prices fall, they face passive selling pressure, creating negative feedback where the price drops more and more sells. Moreover, regulatory deleveraging isn't over yet. Although margin balances have dropped, forced liquidations are still ongoing. If you're not a top short-term expert, don't take this flying knife.
What do you think about South Korea's collapse of this leveraged bull market? Is it regulation mending the barn after the sheep have been lost, or excessive intervention?