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This week is quite critical. On October 28, the Federal Reserve decision; on the 29th, the September PCE—two events back to back, so BTC and ETH volatility is inevitable.
But I don't think there's any suspense about the interest rate itself. The market bets the probability of no change this time is over 90%, with rates likely to stay between 3.75% and 4.00%, which is basically a known fact. What we really need to listen to is what Waller says at the press conference. On October 16 at the IMF, he said, "I won't predict the meeting outcome," which directly dropped the odds of a rate hike in October from over 25% to about 15%. If he continues this tone, risk assets can catch a breather; but if he suddenly emphasizes inflation risks, US Treasuries and the dollar will rally, and high Beta assets will get hit again. Regarding the PCE, the market expects the core annual rate at 3.1% and the overall at 3.6%, both slightly higher than previous values. If it just meets expectations, the damage will be limited; what we really need to guard against is a core PCE significantly exceeding expectations, which would reignite expectations for a rate hike in December.
I won't repeat too much about the price levels. BTC 80,000 is the short-term defense line; only after reclaiming 82,000 to 82,500 can we talk about structural improvement. ETH 2,290 to 2,300 is the key battleground between bulls and bears; if it can't reclaim 2,360 to 2,400, the short-term remains weak.
In such an event-packed week, the direction will most likely be given only after the data is released; betting in advance has low cost-effectiveness. It's more reliable to wait until Waller finishes speaking, the PCE is released, and the market has chosen sides before making moves, rather than guessing now.
$BTC $DOGE $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 80,431 is the upper edge of the contested zone pulled back from 79,330, not a firm hold above 80,000. Four consecutive daily declines + 4-hour bearish alignment + ETF losing 770 million in two days + perpetual longs "paying to hold"—these four facts point to the same conclusion: this wave is a correction, not a reversal. 81,029 is the momentum improvement line, and $82,000 is the real confirmation level. Before the FOMC decision, shorting on rallies is following the trend, chasing longs is against it. Those with positions should defend 79,300 well; those without should wait for the decision to provide direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The two lifelines of the public chain giants: SOL ecosystem's hot coin price cools down, BNB quietly resists the drop the most
First, look at SOL. $101, down 48% in a year, still 65% below the all-time high of 295.
But all ecosystem news is positive: Alpenglow upgrade reduces transaction confirmation to 150 milliseconds; Samsung Wallet's 82 million Galaxy devices will support Solana on-chain USDC transfers by the end of this month; Securitize has brought Apple and Nvidia stock tokens onto SOL; MoneyGram has come to be a validator. Coin price and ecosystem are going their separate ways.
Now look at BNB. $738, market cap $102.2 billion, firmly in fourth place, only down 5% this month—during the same period SOL dropped 17%, DOGE dropped 22%.
The logic is straightforward: BNB is backed by real cash flow from the exchange, with buyback and burn as solid support; SOL relies on ecosystem narrative, which is least valuable during a rate hike cycle.
In a bear market, look at cash flow; in a bull market, look at imagination. The data has already told you what kind of market it is now.
In your holdings, do you have more cash flow or more imagination? $SOL $DOGE $BNB @BTC星辰 这场最大的变化，不是从多头变成空头，而是从想把反弹拿成一段行情，逐步转向反复强调防守。闪迪上去又下来，美光相对更强，他开始明确表示：如果要减仓，优先减掉最弱的那个，而不是因为已经开了多单，就把所有标的一起扛到底。 先说清最终状态。星辰下播时仍然表示，多单还在，主要持仓包括英特尔、美光、闪迪和海力士。因此，不能把他中途说过的“想平掉”“拿不住了”，写成已经全部离场；也不能只留下最后一句“继续拿”，删掉中间不断变得谨慎的风险提示。 闪迪是全场压力最大的一笔。他多次提到，自己的持仓成本在1270附近，价格回到成本一带时没有退出，随后又承受了一轮回落。他原本想多拿一段，但弱势和反复震荡，让这笔交易从等待反弹，变成必须盯住防守条件。 开场阶段，他给出的新参与参考是1250附近，也谈到1250至1260一带可以考虑，止损先参考1220。这是这场的新说法，不应直接把上一场的入场计划搬过来。 随着盘面转弱，他又多次要求已有闪迪仓位的人，在1230附近设置止损。到后段，他同时提到1220、1230都可以作为防守参考，并且强调不要硬扛。更准确的整理，是他把1220至1230视为需要认真执行防那天存储ETF单日跌了7%，背后是几重担忧叠在一起：国内厂商扩产预期对DRAM的冲击，加上黄仁勋提到资本稀缺、AI债集中发行后，市场开始担心云厂商会不会砍算力预算。美光作为板块里对DRAM现货价格最敏感的标的，自然首当其冲。$SNDK $BTC $ETH 周五板块情绪回暖，美光是里面唯一收红的。原因很直接：它是三家大厂里最吃DRAM现货涨价红利的。海力士重心在HBM长协订单，SNDK主打NAND闪存，美光两边都沾，但弹性更多绑在DRAM现货报价上。 这周利好确实不少。黄仁勋说2029年前存储不容易过剩，Solidigm的IPO正式叫停，西数财报也偏强。这些消息落地，现货涨价预期最先反映在美光身上。 不过也要看到，美光过去一个月跌了接近19%，回调幅度在三家里其实算轻的。它手里有不少AI长协托底，安全垫确实厚一点，但风险也很明确：一旦现货价格走弱，它最先承压。 这周是超级周，美联储议息、微软谷歌的资本开支指引，都会直接影响AI存储需求的预期。海力士、三星的三季报出来，也会给DRAM现货定调。#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the Federal Reserve will announce the October FOMC interest rate decision, with the market generally expecting rates to remain unchanged.
However, what may truly impact the market is not whether rates are raised this time, but how the Fed views the upcoming inflation and interest rate trajectory.
Cost pressures from tariffs and the resilience of the U.S. economy could make inflation decline more difficult. If the Fed believes inflation risks remain elevated, even if it does not raise rates this time, it may signal a hawkish stance, potentially leading to a rate hike in December.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ TTM has recovered most of the gap caused by today's earnings report—OKX market xTTMI (TTM Technologies US stock token) at 88.20, exactly at the 24h high, +10.85%, with MA5/30/120 all trending upwards.
What’s driving this? Last Wednesday’s earnings report initially hit hard (the price dropped to 72.84 after the report), but now the market is reassessing the "record-breaking Q3"—plus the recent announcement of acquiring MKS's Ophir optics business. Both the military PCB and laser optics lines are telling a story. This move is an emotional rebound after the plunge combined with institutional buying.
My judgment: from 72.84 to 88, a more than 20% rebound in two trading days, with volume supporting (OKX market 2.89 million, turnover 2.72%). Recovery rallies usually complete in one wave—now at the 24h high, short-term funds are chasing the rebound, but US stock intraday volatility is large, so don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal.
Watch the signals: can 88.2 (24h high) break out with volume? Above that is the 90 round number resistance; watch if the pullback holds MA5 at 87.77; breaking below 82 (MA30) would indicate this recovery is over.
#TTM #MilitaryElectronics #USStockToken
Not investment advice, DYOR Guys, regarding shorting Unitree, Mi Ge is straightforward with his personal view: I'm starting to be bearish, and the risk-reward ratio for shorting at this position is very high.
Why? The logic behind this stock now is purely holding up on sentiment. A 200 billion market cap is being supported by revenue from selling scientific equipment, propping up the imagination of "embodied intelligence changing the world." The first financial report is about to be released, and the report will be like makeup remover—once the non-recurring profit is out, everyone will know who's naked swimming.
Looking at the market battle, the funding rate has gone from -1.3% to -0.03%. On the surface, it seems the shorts aren't bleeding anymore, but in reality, the longs are also weak. The earlier short squeeze used up all the bullets; now it can't be pushed further. Everyone is waiting for the earnings on the 29th. As long as the report doesn't show extremely better-than-expected industrial big orders or the profit falls a bit short, this is a classic case of good news fully priced in, and a stampede of more selling will come soon.
How to act specifically? Try shorting on rallies above around 100. But remember, this is the first financial report, and the main players will definitely stir things up. If the report reveals a strategic cooperation, it could trigger a big bullish candle to blow up the shorts at any time. So shorting is fine, but absolutely do not go heavy; stop loss must be nailed down. Short in when the rally is weak, make a quick profit from killing valuation, then run—don't hold on stubbornly. $BTC $UNITREE $SNDK
Shorting is okay, but bring stop loss and play lightly.#Solana stock token holder addresses reach 1.5 million, I want to break down this number further
On October 26, Solana announced that the number of on-chain stock token holder addresses reached 1.5 million, about five times that of August. This indicates an expansion in distribution coverage, but there is still a gap between the number of addresses and actual users, as one person can have multiple wallets, and reward distributions also increase the number of holding addresses. I am somewhat optimistic about this direction, but when verifying, I take an extra step: after subsidies decrease, will users still actively trade? Continuous transactions and repeated usage convince me more that demand is forming than simply how many new addresses appear on a given day.#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Currently, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is indeed recovering, but last week Brent crude still stubbornly closed around $115.
The main reason is that the Houthi forces are still launching missiles at Saudi energy facilities. Although Saudi Arabia has intercepted some, the fear of a sudden supply cut keeps investors from shorting crude oil.
As long as the cost of transporting oil doesn't come down, the high premium on oil prices remains firmly stuck. Oil prices can't fall, U.S. inflation expectations will be reignited, and if inflation can't be controlled, the Federal Reserve won't be able to cut interest rates. This triggers a chain reaction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #The October FOMC Rate Decision Will Be Announced This Week
Core conclusion in one sentence: The market unanimously bets on no change this time. The focus is not on whether to hike or not, but on whether the tone is hawkish or dovish, and what kind of rate hike hints are laid for December. This is the key factor stirring the USD, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC markets.
1. Current CME Interest Rate Futures Expectations
- The probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is close to 90%, while the probability of a direct 25bp hike is only about 10%. The baseline scenario is a [hawkish pause]. Since there was a hike in September, the threshold for consecutive hikes is very high.
- The focus has shifted to December: futures pricing shows the probability of a 25bp hike in December has surged above 70%. Mainstream institutional views (Goldman Sachs, etc.) also expect no change in October, keeping the option for a December hike.
- Important reminder: This October FOMC will not have a dot plot or updated economic forecasts. All information comes from the policy statement and the chair’s press conference. It is a "verbal guidance-driven market" meeting, making it easy for expectation gaps to cause market swings.
2. Three Key Issues to Watch in This Meeting
1. How to view inflation stickiness?
Recently, CPI, core PCE fluctuations, and oil price rebounds are the Fed’s biggest concerns. If the speech continues to emphasize that inflation risks have not been eliminated and does not rule out further hikes, that is hawkish, leading to rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and pressure on BTC; if it says the inflation downtrend is still intact and these are just short-term disturbances, the market will interpret it as dovish, giving risk assets a breather. "BTC $80,000 Threshold"
The $80,000 mark was broken, but what’s truly striking isn’t the price—it’s the ETF capital flow flipping from a net inflow of over $1 billion to a net outflow of $772 million within 48 hours.
1. What changed? Earlier this week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF was still attracting funds, but on Thursday and Friday, $772 million was withdrawn, coinciding with BTC dropping below $80,000, hitting a low near $79,300.
2. Why is this significant? The $80,000 threshold has been supported by ETF inflows over the past few weeks. Now that this support capital has actively withdrawn, this level is truly being tested. This isn’t about leveraged longs being wiped out; it’s about the institutional buying "faucet" being turned off.
3. Which interpretation is more supported? It favors an "event-driven preventive de-risking" rather than a "complete trend reversal to bearish." The ETF still recorded about $300 million net inflow for the whole week. Long liquidations on the contract side dominate, but open interest hasn’t collapsed, funding rates are extremely low, and chips are rotating rather than fleeing.
The key focus going forward: after this week’s Federal Reserve decision and tech giant earnings reports, will ETF capital flow turn positive again or continue to outflow? This will reveal more than the $80,000 level itself. Whether $80,000 holds may not depend on the candlestick but on when the faucet is turned back on. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC $HYPE and $ZEC: The Leading Indicators of the Market in My Eyes 📊
In my view, $HYPE and $ZEC act like leading indicators for the market 🧭. When BTC was still around 87,000, these two coins had already weakened first: HYPE peaked at 98 and then steadily consolidated downward, while ZEC bottomed near 1700 and then directly broke below its consolidation range. BTC only peaked afterward and has since dropped to around 80,000 📉. This "leading step" characteristic is not appearing for the first time.
In several previous market cycles, whether bear market rebounds or bull market corrections, HYPE and ZEC often gave directional signals earlier than $BTC. Saying their "dog whales" have a very high accuracy in judging the market is no exaggeration 🐶🎯. Therefore, I treat them as important references for judging future market trends.
Currently, HYPE and ZEC are showing signs of short-term bottoming in their pullbacks, especially ZEC, which already shows signs of capital support 💡💰. Of course, this is just an observation signal, not an absolute conclusion, but it is worth continuous tracking 👀. If these two leading indicators continue to stabilize, they might bring some positive hints to the market 📈✨. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ A giant whale's liquidation price is 2256. Just $26 away, his long positions in BTC and ETH worth $396 million would be taken away.
In the early morning, he urgently added 9.21 million USDC as margin, pushing the liquidation price down to 2181, barely crawling out of the ICU. He still holds 115,000 ETH and 1,539 BTC, without reducing his positions.
On the same chain, Big Brother Maji's 25x ETH long position has been completely liquidated. The address now only has $5,357 left, with cumulative losses exceeding $35.37 million.
One survived by adding funds, the other didn't even have the chance to add funds.
But what really kept me staring at the screen for a long time wasn't these two people. It was where the funds are flowing.
Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $301 million last week, turning positive on a weekly basis. Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative loss exceeding $1.18 billion in October. Institutions are abandoning ETH and holding BTC.
BTC is now around 80,000, ETH at 2335. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is imminent, AI concept stocks are being sold off, and oil prices remain above $111. The risk-off sentiment hasn't dissipated, and leveraged longs are being taken out round after round.
That whale who survived by $30, if ETH touches 2181 again, he's gone. And Maji, he's already gone once.
$BTC $ETH Holding AXIS, why am I still not ready to get off the ride?
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Recently, AXIS has been hovering around 0.25, dropping more than 20% in 7 days, which is indeed uncomfortable to hold. But I don't think the project has collapsed; it's more about the cooling off of launch hype and a thin market cap, so even a small sell order can crash the price.
Bitget's CandyBomb and Launchpool end on October 28, so trading and staking demand are still supporting the price these days. Binance Alpha trading competition starts at 21:00 on October 26, with a 3x bonus for early trades, attracting volume traders, so the buying activity is likely to be more active than now. Season 2 airdrop opened on October 23, distributing 60 million tokens to contributors, and the project is still moving forward.
So my expectation is: before October 28, leveraging the tail end of events and the early phase of the competition's buying pressure, AXIS has a chance to rebound to 0.27–0.29; if the hype exceeds expectations, 0.30–0.33 is not out of the question. Beyond that, it will require real catalysts, and I won't hype it.
I also acknowledge the risks: once the events end, demand will withdraw; the circulating supply is only 165 million, so the price can drop quickly; the core question of "who is paying for the data" remains unanswered, which I keep a close eye on.
My stance: I am not panicking around 0.25, nor am I blindly buying; if it truly returns to the expected range, I will seriously consider reducing some holdings.
$AXIS #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Fully raising multiple flags, there are four reasons
1. HBM4 continues to secure long-term agreements (LTA) with major manufacturers, yield ramp-up is fast, and the proportion of high-margin AI storage is increasing;
2. Spot prices for DRAM and NAND have been rising continuously in Q3, with price increases in ordinary server memory driving overall ASP;
3. The market is anticipating large shareholder returns in advance (special dividends/repurchases), and if the plan scale exceeds rumors, it would be an additional positive factor;
4. After Q2, AI capital expenditure has not significantly cooled down, and the restocking pace of leading cloud vendors remains stable.The first batch of about 35 billion is on sale, followed by about 60 billion ATM, intraday low around 629 then bounced back to about 642, $META this "dilution to exchange computing power" I first take as pressure
Beijing time Monday night before and after the US East opening announced: first about 35 billion underwriting (about 22.5 billion Class A common stock + about 12.5 billion mandatory convertible preferred), after Class C listing, up to about 60 billion ATM will be offered, totaling up to about 95 billion; NVDA, AMD, AVGO are interested in subscribing up to about 5 billion combined.
Company guidance for 2026 capital expenditure is about 135–145 billion, operating cash flow for the first three quarters about 97 billion, cash at the end of Q3 about 82 billion. Just last Friday, the stock took a hit due to raising the lower bound of the expenditure range.
Market opened around 638, low about 629, high about 647, current price about 642 close to Friday's close about 642.6, basically flat.
I believe AI infrastructure still needs heavy investment, and I see the 95 billion equity as "dilution first then exchange for ammunition," I don't believe the dilution has been fully priced in around 642.
Tonight, first watch if it holds between about 629–647, if it recovers to about 648–655 then we talk; daily close below about 629 targets about 620.
Do you trust the computing power gained from dilution can outweigh the dilution effect, or do you trust that the financing itself is pressure?
$META
#Today'sMarketTalk🔥 $187 million liquidated, long and short positions both crushed! $ZEC whale shorts floating a loss of $18 million, liquidation price 1312, hanging by a thread
In the past 24 hours, 65,660 people across the network were liquidated, totaling $187 million. Long liquidations were $128 million, accounting for 68.7%; short liquidations were $58.55 million, accounting for 31.3%. In the past 4 hours, both longs and shorts were liquidated: longs $25.5 million, shorts $17.55 million, both sides suffering heavy losses.
But the worst hit are the ZEC shorts. On Hyperliquid, the largest short position in ZEC added $36.81 million margin in the past 24 hours, holding $34.09 million in short positions, with floating losses reaching $18.04 million, opening price 305.9, liquidation price 1312.58. Current price 1254, only $58 away from liquidation.
ZEC surged 2.33% in one hour to 1250, shorts liquidated $410,000, longs liquidated only $10,000, a complete one-sided slaughter.
$BTC repeatedly liquidated around the 80,000 mark, ZEC squeezed shorts above 1250. Longs died on BTC, shorts died on ZEC. On the liquidation map, all shorts are above 1228, and below 1184 is a big liquidation pit. The manipulators profit from both ends, no one escapes. FOMC, PCE, $11 billion options settlement
$BTC, $ETH repeatedly tug-of-war, three major events this week will focus on pricing short-term direction
October 29 FOMC decision and press conference
The Federal Reserve is very likely to maintain 3.75%—4.00% unchanged, with CME pricing the probability of no change at about 91%. The real trading variable is not whether to move or not, but the chairman's wording on the December path—the market has priced in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and any hawkish confirmation will push up real rates and suppress risk assets. Wintermute warns that the current implied volatility is low, and the market may be underestimating the volatility risk around the decision
October 29 PCE + Q3 GDP
September PCE is the Fed's true anchor inflation indicator, released the day after the FOMC meeting. If core PCE continues the previous cooling trend of 3.0%, it is slightly favorable for BTC; if it remains sticky and exceeds expectations again, the "higher for longer" narrative will directly suppress rebound space
October 30 about $11 billion BTC options monthly settlement
Deribit's monthly options nominal expiration scale is about $10.97 billion, with call contracts about twice the number of puts. But nominal scale does not equal directional signal—the market makers' hedging adjustments before and after expiration often amplify short-term volatility, with the $83,000—$85,000 range as the short-term battle focus
#OctoberFOMCRateDecision to be announced this week A giant whale nearly "died" last night, with a $272 million position just $30 away from liquidation.
$ETH dropped as low as 2282. Among his nearly $400 million long positions in $BTC and ETH, the liquidation price for ETH was set at 2256, just $30 away. In the early morning, he urgently added 9.21 million USDC as margin, forcibly pulling the liquidation price from 2256 down to 2181, temporarily climbing out of the ICU.
ETH plunged from 2527 to 2358 within 4 hours, sweeping out almost all liquidity below. The densest near-term long liquidation zone is between 2340 and 2370. For BTC, the short stop-loss cluster is between 82000 and 83800 above. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw over $800 million liquidated, with longs accounting for more than 93%. 213,000 traders were wiped out, and BTC alone liquidated $235 million.
The current structure is: ETH’s near-term long danger zone has been fully triggered, the whale added margin and retreated to a safe distance; BTC still has a long liquidation band just above 80000 underfoot, not completely cleared yet.
$ETH #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $SOL perpetual contract open interest returned to 8.82 million contracts at 13:00 on 10-26, which is 300,000 contracts more than the 8.52 million at the same time on 10-25. The price remained flat around 101.34 to 101 during the same period, basically unchanged.
The rise in open interest without a price increase indicates that the additional 300,000 contracts are not longs bottom-fishing but rather shorts or hedgers entering the market. If longs were truly accumulating, the price wouldn’t stay flat; there would be at least a small rebound. Currently, positions are increasing while the price is waiting.
From 10-24 to 10-25, open interest dropped from a peak of 8.79 million contracts to 8.52 million, a decrease of 270,000 contracts, signaling a deleveraging phase. Now it has risen back to 8.82 million, 30,000 contracts above the previous peak, indicating that not all positions that exited have left the market; some have re-entered at lower levels.
This batch of re-entered positions is likely biased toward shorts. At 00:00 on 10-26, the funding rate turned negative to -0.00002055%, with a mark price of 101.59, signaling that shorts are paying. By 08:00, the funding rate returned positive at 0.00008764%, indicating a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. However, open interest continues to rise and the price remains flat near 101, meaning longs have not gained an advantage.
If open interest rises to 8.82 million and the price subsequently breaks above 104 with increased volume, that would confirm longs re-entering. If the price continues sideways or breaks below 100, shorts within these 8.82 million contracts will start taking profits, and open interest will decline again. The current 8.82 million contracts represent a buildup of positions awaiting directional movement. Macro Background: A "Bidirectional Bearish" Week for FOMC + Tech Earnings
FOMC (October 27–28): The market pricing maintains about a 91% probability of holding the rate steady at 3.75%–4.00%, with about a 9% chance of a rate hike. But the real risk lies in December—the market expects the probability of a rate hike in December to surge to nearly 80%. The statement from Chair Powell's press conference regarding December's signal is key. BTSE's COO bluntly stated: It is highly likely to hold steady this week; what really matters is how strong the Chair's signal is for a December rate hike. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, US-Iran conflict, and inflation, the Federal Reserve could very well adopt a hawkish tone.
Tech earnings are a "bidirectional bearish" variable: Microsoft and Google report earnings on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday. The huge AI spending impacts BTC in two bearish directions—if earnings prove growth, funds may divert from BTC into tech stocks; if concerns over AI returns trigger sell-offs, BTC will also be under pressure. BTC only benefits in the narrow window where tech stocks rebound and risk appetite recovers.
Geopolitical marginal easing: Trump announced that the US will not attack Iran that day, with S&P futures up 0.5%, Nasdaq futures up 0.7%, and oil prices falling inversely. However, geopolitical risks remain unresolved, and oil prices are still high. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Tonight $BTW's two 1H candles played out the "perpetual futures crash before spot, then rebound before spot" scenario.
At 22:00, the candle went O 1.4041 → L 1.0618 → C 1.2082, with a single candle volume of 7.27 million USD, 10.8 times that of the previous candle; at 23:00, the low was 1.0255 and the high 1.5951, down nearly 39% from the 24h open, then pulled back 55% from the bottom.
What matters is not the drop percentage, but three prices: OKX index price (external spot composite) 24h low was 1.0655, but the perpetual futures dropped to 1.0255, 3.8% below the index anchor—this drop affected the entire market, not just OKX; around 23:24, the perpetual futures discount was -3.3%, at 23:00 the funding fee settled at -0.97%, this coin settles funding every hour, so shorts were paying out; open interest was 1.63 million USD, 24h volume was 26 million USD, 16 times turnover, all short-term funds fighting each other.
On OKX, BTW has no spot yet, only 20x perpetual futures; on November 2, 101.6M BTW will unlock.
During the 22:00 hour, even if you correctly predicted the direction and went long, you still got stopped out by the wick—the damage came from timing and leverage.
Which candle was the deepest wick that hit you? $BTW 现在更像事件重定价的博弈段，不是无脑追涨的节奏。 你看到机构在买，会跟着兴奋吗？ 我第一眼看到这组 10 月 19 到 25 的数据，反而先冷静了一下。Strive 单周加了 6,182 枚 BTC，约 5.11 亿美元，这个体量放在任何一周都不算小；Bitmine 加了 10,452 枚 ETH，约 2,460 万美元；Strategy 这周是零增持。表面看是机构继续扫货，但把 ETF 那条线放进来，画面就变了：比特币 ETF 净流入约 3.012 亿美元，以太坊 ETF 净流出约 2.207 亿美元。 热闹是真的，承接不均衡也是真的。 我自己的理解是，这周市场交易的不是"机构全面看多"，而是"BTC 被重新定价、ETH 还在等确认"。Strive 那笔大额买入更像一次明确的方向表态，会强化场内对 BTC 下方支撑的想象，也容易让杠杆多头觉得回调就是机会。但 Strategy 零增持这个细节挺关键，它说明头部玩家的节奏并不一致，市场却容易把它简化成"机构还在买"。 ETH 这边更微妙。Bitmine 在加仓，ETF 却在往外走，两边方向相反。我不觉得这是单纯的坏信号，更像是传统资金对🔥 $BTC Midterm Election Theory: Will History Repeat?
Bitcoin has often declined after previous U.S. midterm elections. But there’s a key detail many overlook: in past cycles, BTC’s final bottom came after the elections. 👀
This suggests the post-election decline may be a historical correlation, not a direct cause.
If Bitcoin has already established its cycle bottom this time, the pattern may not repeat. Could BTC have bottomed before the midterm elections this year?
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $SK海力士 Q3 earnings countdown. Citi expects operating profit of 81.3 trillion KRW, exceeding market consensus by 8%, with HBM4 explicitly identified as a key variable for upward profit revision. Mass production of 12-layer HBM4 began in September, and SK Hynix is expected to secure about 60% of Nvidia's total HBM4 supply, with HBM4 sales share officially surpassing HBM3E in Q4. The pricing power and volume ramp of HBM4 are the real highlights of this earnings report. #SK海力士 #HBM4 #Q3财报💥 Over $400 million in long positions are stuck on the brink of liquidation. BTC is at 80,887, ETH at 2,365; spot prices are weakening, but perpetual contracts are still holding strong; funding rates on both sides remain positive at +0.00125%, longs are paying despite price drops—this is not strength, it's stubbornness.
📉 $BTC and $ETH leverage diverge: 24h BTC open interest rises instead of falling, with new leverage entering; ETH open interest significantly shrinks, funds are withdrawing. BTC retail long-short ratio is 0.4861, with concentrated liquidations; whales at 0.77, holding longs cautiously, shorts dominate. ETH long-short ratio is 2.46, with bullish positions not yet fully cleared.
🔥 24h total network liquidations are about $578 million, with longs accounting for 91%; BTC liquidations at 235 million, ETH at 184 million, almost all longs. A certain giant whale holds nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH longs, with ETH liquidation price at 2,181 and BTC at 70,396; ETH lowest price hit 2,282, just $30 above liquidation, triggering emergency margin top-up. This "liquidation bomb" itself is a catalyst for downside. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Retail investors treat 80,000 as the exit window, while whales have been holding back for two consecutive months — this divergence occurs before the PCE release
On-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, retail investors' BTC deposits to Binance doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a roughly 6-month high; meanwhile, whale deposits dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decrease of about 36%. Retail investors are selling, whales are waiting, and the PCE won't be released until the day after the rate decision.
$BTC around 80,500. Weekly ETF net inflow of $301 million ended two weeks of consecutive declines, but October still shows a net outflow of $314 million; last Thursday and Friday combined outflow was $773 million, partially offsetting the midweek inflow of $1.07 billion.
$ETH around 2,340. ETH ETF has had four consecutive weeks of net outflows, with another $221 million last week, totaling about $1.18 billion lost in October; SOL saw a cumulative outflow of about $68 million in October, with zero net inflow on the 24th.
$SOL around 101, barely holding the integer level. ETF monthly cumulative outflow of $68 million, buying pressure is temporarily absent, but the on-chain tokenization narrative is still progressing.
In short: the rate decision will most likely remain unchanged, but the PCE will be released a day later. Retail investors are selling, whales are waiting, and ETF money is only flowing through the BTC channel. All three coins are waiting for the same thing — whether the inflation data provides a decent reason.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 10月28日，SK海力士将公布第三季度财报。市场真正关注的，不只是利润能增长多少，而是HBM4放量进度、存储涨价能否延续，以及AI需求能否继续支撑高盈利。 第一，业绩预期已经很高。 市场预测SK海力士第三季度营收约98.2万亿韩元，营业利润约77万亿韩元，营业利润率有望接近78%。这些仍是市场预测，并非公司正式公布的业绩。  第二季度，公司营收达到79.32万亿韩元，营业利润达到60.54万亿韩元，营业利润率约76%。这意味着，第三季度财报不仅要验证AI存储需求的强度，还要看盈利能力能否继续提升。  第二，HBM4是本次财报的核心看点。 SK海力士此前表示，第二季度已经开始出货HBM4，并计划在下半年扩大生产。接下来需要观察实际出货量、良率和客户需求，能否支撑下一阶段增长。 但要注意，HBM4开始出货不等于产能已经全面爬坡。市场更关心的是：新产品能否按计划放量，并继续保持技术、成本和供应优势。 第三，存储景气与股东回报同样重要。 AI服务器需求不仅带动HBM，也支撑传统DRAM和企业级SSD。若存储价格继续上涨，公司的盈利可能进一#GENIUS Act details released, stablecoin reward restrictions adjusted The OCC has implemented the GENIUS Act details, with the core adjustment being the removal of the clause in the proposal that "third-party issuers paying interest is presumed illegal." However, platform stablecoin reward programs have not obtained a compliance safe harbor and will be judged on a case-by-case basis to determine if they violate the ban. The underlying law still prohibits simply holding stablecoins to distribute interest or rewards to users; distinguishing the motivation behind reward distribution has become key to regulatory judgment.
For the industry, this represents a marginal easing, not a direct full liberalization of interest-bearing business. Existing stablecoin annual reward rates of 3.75%-4.5% on platforms like Coinbase and PayPal still face compliance uncertainties and will require separate regulatory verification, increasing compliance costs for platform operations.
In the medium to long term, the rule implementation provides a clear federal regulatory framework for the stablecoin sector. Hard requirements such as 100% high liquidity reserves and regular audits will eliminate small and medium players, increasing industry concentration. On the risk side, if multiple platform reward programs are later deemed non-compliant, the attractiveness of stablecoin funds will decline, putting pressure on crypto market liquidity. Currently, this is a stage of regulatory and industry negotiation, with rising capital wait-and-see sentiment, increased volatility in the stablecoin sector, and a strong need for risk control. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Today's "ECG" review: The line is straight, the person is lying down
BTC high 80615, low 79279, amplitude 1.68%; ETH high 2364, low 2292, amplitude 3.16%. The K-line moves more orderly than a neighborhood gate barrier, the market is as calm as the Monday morning rush hour subway—no one speaks, everyone holds firm.
But it's not quiet underwater: BTC+ETH total liquidations across the network reached $728 million, 196,000 people were taken out, bulls account for 84%, BTC 24-hour liquidation about 550 million. Retail long-short ratio is 0.4861, crowded on the long side holding crazily; whales long-short ratio 0.77, flat longs watching, shorts serving tea and watching the show. $ETH
A certain giant whale holds nearly $400 million BTC+ETH long positions, ETH liquidation at 2181, last night’s low was 2282, only $30 away from liquidation, urgently added 9.21 million USDC at dawn to pull himself back from the ICU door. On the other side, retail has deposited $10.75 billion BTC into Binance in nearly 30 days, while whale inflows shrank to 3.8 billion—small retail rushing in, whales quietly packing up. $BTC
Calmness is for the market, risk is for the account. The straighter the line, the easier to relax vigilance; the Fed meets Wednesday, don’t let yourself turn into an ECG in the straight line. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Now comparing market sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is at 54, but I am skeptical of this reading because I see more fear in the market. The reason is simple: the Fear and Greed Index uses a calculation model, and most investors who bought BTC in the past two to three months are currently in profit. These investors are experienced because they bought at the bottom and know when to enter, which can be called smart money, while inexperienced investors either have not entered yet or are those who sold in the last few days. To illustrate my point: if BTC were $120,000 now, retail concentration in BTC would be very high, and the Fear and Greed Index formula would classify BTC in the fear zone. However, so far, experienced investors have not engaged in massive panic selling, only a large number of weak holders have been shaken out. Therefore, the Fear and Greed Index analyzes the behavior of 100% of BTC holders, seeing that 80% of experienced traders are holding and not panicking. But if the Fear and Greed Index were applied only to the remaining 20% minority group in the market, the Fear and Greed Index would now be at extreme fear levels. ⚡ The night before FOMC: BTC barely moved, but money quietly shifted positions
Today $BTC hovers around 85,000, down only 0.03% in 24h, $ETH at 2,336 down 0.35%, ETH/BTC steady at 0.029. Looks like a stagnant pool. But among 24 major pairs, 15 rose, 8 fell, 1 unchanged — the declines are minor, indicating selling pressure isn't on the main market, just no one willing to pump before the meeting.
The real movement is on the edges: ZEC +2.83% leads again, with 58.2 million in volume; NEAR +2.54%, HYPE +1.56% follow. The losers are all previous flyers — IRYS -24.8%, down a quarter in one day, volume only 13.5 million, typical liquidity drain. BTC dominance at 37.5%, down 1.66% over 7 days, money isn't hiding in BTC but shrinking within the market looking for small openings.
Fear & Greed 50, neutral. My stance: wait and see. This kind of "main market stable, edges volatile" before FOMC is the easiest to get hit from both sides if you chase; wait for the decision and see if breadth can hold.
Will you stay out of the market tonight or keep some position?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC #FOMC #Crypto Abraxas has opened two accounts on Hyperliquid, with short positions totaling $1.29 billion, and has already earned $353 million in the accounts.
But on-chain, these two accounts are marked as hedging, not bearish. They also hold spot positions simultaneously; the shorts are only used to offset spot price fluctuations, canceling each other out on both sides, so the net value barely changes.
Therefore, this $353 million is not a reward for betting on the right direction. One-sided figures are the easiest to mislead; you need to calculate the net exposure and not just look at the nominal value. When shorts and spot positions are close, it’s a neutral strategy, and following it for directional bets is meaningless.The $80,000 area is also a very important support level for big players, which small retail investors often overlook. The average buy-in cost of Bitcoin treasuries is $80,200, and the average buy-in price for treasuries and US spot ETFs is around $80,000 to $81,500. It is reported that Binance spot buy orders near $80,000 have been re-established after the $88,000 pullback before October 20. Meanwhile, the realized profit-taking pace has slowed to about half of the September peak. Overall, this means that institutional investors' average entry price is between $80,000 and $81,500, with a clear slowdown in profit-taking. This tells me that the current selling pressure comes from retail investors, combined with short positions in the futures market, while spot selling mainly comes from short-term holders, but medium- to long-term holders dare not sell their BTC bought at $60,000 to $70,000. This situation usually appears at local bottoms, which is exactly why I am going long in the $80,000 to $81,000 area. There is a fund on-chain holding $1.29 billion in short positions, with an account profit of $353 million.
This fund, called Abraxas Capital, is a crypto hedge fund. It has opened two accounts on Hyperliquid, with short positions nominally worth over $1.29 billion and cumulative profits of $353 million.
Most people see this number and their first reaction is that the whales are bearish, so just follow the shorts. But the on-chain data platform labels these two accounts as hedging accounts.
The key is that they also hold spot positions. When the spot price falls, the shorts make money; when the spot price rises, the shorts lose. The two sides hedge each other, so the net asset value barely moves. Therefore, the $353 million is not a bonus for betting on the right direction, but the book result within the hedging structure.
What really needs to be calculated is the position ratio. The shorts are $1.29 billion; how much spot corresponds to that? If the two sides are roughly equal, this is a neutral strategy with zero directional information. If the shorts far exceed the spot, then it is truly bearish. These two situations are completely different on-chain.
Following whale shorts for direction is where most losses happen. You see the nominal value but not the other leg.
My approach is to separate the spot and perpetual positions of the two accounts, look at the net exposure, not the one-sided numbers. Net exposure represents what they are really betting on.
With $1.29 billion in shorts in front of you, is your first instinct to follow the shorts, or to first check if it is a hedge?$AAVE
Near 24-hour low, what validations are needed for lending demand?
In this morning's spot snapshot, AAVE's 24-hour price change was -2.49%, ranging between 133.9 and 139 USDT.
The snapshot close to 133.9 indicates limited rebound from the low point. Dollar locked value may be affected by collateral prices and cannot be directly regarded as net user flow; utilization and net revenue are more critical.
If real borrowing demand recovers and risk costs are controllable, the basis for recovery increases; if liquidation pressure rises, optimistic assessments should be downgraded, even if the locked amount remains temporarily stable.Funding situation: ETF lost 770 million in two days, perpetual "hard holding" is a hidden risk
ETF—Net outflow of $773.5 million in two days
On October 22, net outflow was $635.6 million, and on October 23, another $137.9 million outflow, totaling about $773.5 million in two days. BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC together outflowed $471.6 million on the 22nd, accounting for nearly three-quarters of that day's outflow. Although the weekly net inflow was still about $301 million, the cumulative net outflow in October was about $314 million. The weekly "turning positive" is the residual effect of concentrated inflows at the beginning of the week.
Perpetual contracts—Over $400 million long positions hanging near liquidation price
BTC dropped to around 80,887, but the perpetual funding rate remains positive at +0.00125%—the price is going down, yet longs are still paying to hold positions, "this is stubbornness, not strength." BTC open interest rose against the trend; new positions are still entering; retail long-short ratio has dropped to 0.4861, with many liquidations; large holders' long-short ratio is 0.77, with longs flattening and shorts dominating. A certain whale holds nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH long positions, with BTC liquidation price at 70,396, which itself is a catalyst for downside.
Liquidations in the past 24 hours: about $578 million network-wide, longs account for 91%; BTC liquidations $235 million. Although the liquidation scale is far below the previous several hundred million level phases, the high proportion of longs indicates that traders positioned for a rise have limited buffer space for drawdowns.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 If you're stuck, you have to brainwash yourself, so good news for X Layer = good news for $OKB 😂
This wave of USDe basically adds a new interest-bearing USD asset on the X chain, and it's not purely reserve-backed; it's through hedging to earn funding fees and staking rewards. So staking into sUSDe or later one-click recycling in the wallet can directly participate in earnings.
For users, no need to bother with cross-chain; you can deposit, trade, and later amplify earnings right in the OKX wallet. For OKB, it's even more straightforward: the chain becomes more active, gas consumption increases, and funds are more willing to stay on X Layer, which can provide more price support for OKB. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
From the data, Robinhood's blockchain trading volume has been declining since mid-September.
From the user sentiment perspective, there is also little discussion about Robinhood's market on social platforms, and the sentiment is declining.
There is a positive trend as deposits in on-chain lending and trading applications have been rising over the past week.
Robinhood's chain business is also undergoing transformation; the Meme-driven popularity phase is over, and now it is a period of diversified platform development. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ From this quarter's data, AI investments have already shown clear positive returns, with both revenue and profit margins rising. However, high capital expenditures continue, extending the return cycle. In the short term, compute supply, peer competition, and massive capex will suppress further increases in return rates, representing a "phase of realized interim gains but not yet at the harvest period's end"
✅ Highlights of returns already seen
1. Revenue surge + significant profit margin increase
Google Cloud's quarterly revenue reached $24.8 billion, up 82% year-over-year, with operating profit at $8.8 billion. Profit margin rose from 20.7% last year to 35.6%. Profit growth outpaced revenue growth, scale effects are emerging, proving that AI compute power and Gemini enterprise orders can convert into solid operating profits.
Nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies use Gemini; Vertex platform and Gemini API call volumes continue to surge, showing strong enterprise customer willingness to pay.
2. Ample long-term contract orders, high performance visibility
Cloud business backlog reached $514 billion, with over half planned to convert into revenue within the next 24 months, providing strong performance floor for upcoming quarters. AI-related long-term contracts continue to increase.
3. Self-developed TPU long-term cost reduction benefits gradually realized
This quarter confirmed TPU full machine external delivery revenue for the first time. Self-developed chips reduce reliance on externally purchased NVIDIA GPUs $BTC $ETH $ZEC Opening the market chart at noon, $BTC is consolidating with a slight rise. Has it sparked your urge to buy the dip again? Don’t rush to act just yet. The few green bars on the left side of the chart do look promising—there’s about $50 million to $60 million net inflow on the 1-hour and 2-hour timeframes respectively, and retail investors think the opportunity has arrived, rushing in. But shifting your view to the long-term data on the right side, the picture completely reverses: the 30-day contracts show a net outflow as high as $7.682 billion, and the spot market has also withdrawn $1.237 billion. The short-term money coming in is only paving the way for retail investors to take the bags; the big players started their frantic exit a month ago.
Looking at $ETH, the data is even more painful. The 1-hour short-term just saw an inflow of over $80 million, but the 30-day contract funds have a net outflow of $8.595 billion, and the spot market withdrew another $3.784 billion—ETH’s bleeding is more severe than BTC’s. Every brief rebound essentially provides liquidity for big players to unload, not a signal of a trend reversal.
$SOL’s resistance to decline is slightly better, but the 30-day contracts also saw nearly $2 billion outflow, with the overall direction still being capital outflow.
The conclusion is very clear: don’t be fooled by green bars lasting just a few minutes. That’s a little sweetness given to you by the short-term, but the long-term is draining your principal. Big money is quietly distributing and exiting during the rebound; without real money supporting the bottom, what is there to push prices up? I insist on staying out and watching the show.
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek Is Bitcoin saved? Oil prices have started to fall, is a rebound coming?
1. Have you noticed that to trade crypto well, you have to guess the next move of Trump, the king of tweets?
2. Over the weekend, US oil $CL soared to 105, reaching a price Trump couldn't tolerate, so he immediately crashed the market, saying he wouldn't attack Iran today. Oil prices plummeted 5%, and both the crypto market and US stocks finally began to recover.
3. So what will happen to $BTC after that? Actually, from Trump's actions above, we already have a conclusion. Trump doesn't ignore the market; if it falls too much, he will back down or soften his stance. I believe the downside risk is still relatively limited, and since there has already been quite a pullback recently, you can consider buying on dips. For those who have already bottomed out, patience is advised.
4. I don't know if you've noticed, but there have been so many negative factors in the market recently—US-Iran tensions, Saudi Arabia and Yemen conflicts. Despite so many bad news, Bitcoin hasn't dropped much. It was around 82,000 before, now 80,000, only about a 2% drop. This is actually a relatively strong signal, at least compared to the US stock market.
5. So now the market is such that even with negative news, it doesn't fall much, or it falls and then rebounds. What if there is good news later? Think about it, something big could come! Besides the US-Iran conflict, there could also be positive inflation data. We just need to wait patiently now and keep an eye on the strong support around 78,200. Buy when it reaches that, if not, then forget it.
6. Over the weekend, I analyzed that oil prices are in the fifth wave of an upward trend, and the fifth wave is close to the top #Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ $COIN One year after acquiring Deribit for 2.9 billion, the revenue structure has changed, but revenue has not increased.
▪️ Announced acquisition on May 8, 2025, for approximately $2.9 billion
▪️ Only consolidated for 47 days in Q3 2025, contributing $52 million in revenue
▪️ As of Q2 2026, 88% of net income comes from sources other than Bitcoin spot
▪️ Subscription and service revenue accounts for 48%, whereas two years ago it was almost entirely from spot trading
▪️ Expected revenue for Q3 2026 is $1.221 billion, compared to $1.869 billion in the same quarter last year
▪️ Q2 2026 revenue was $1.22 billion, down 19% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter
▪️ Expected EPS this quarter is -0.109, compared to +1.50 in the same period last year
The transformation is real. This company's revenue used to rely almost entirely on spot trading, but now nearly half comes from subscriptions and services, and 88% does not depend on Bitcoin spot trading.
Scale has not kept up. Expected revenue is $648 million less than the quarter when Deribit was acquired, a loss roughly equal to 22% of the acquisition price. Derivatives have stabilized the structure but have not sustained the revenue.Bought Ethereum for $31,000 in March 2015, started selling today.
An old ICO address transferred out 5,000 ETH within two hours, 1,500 went to exchanges, worth $3.45 million.
Back then, subscribed 100,000 tokens at $0.311 each, sold 50,000 tokens in 2016 at $5.47 each, principal was recovered long ago. The remaining 50,000 tokens held for ten years are now worth $115 million.
An address that hasn't moved for ten years suddenly makes a transfer, usually not just once. The remaining 45,000 tokens are worth watching.#英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量 $INTC Intel has postponed its earnings report by a week, and the main player of Terafab has changed.
▪️ Initial phase $55 billion, located in Texas, with a planned total scale of $119 billion
▪️ Intel joined on 4/7, committing to the full chain from design to packaging, mass production using 14A
▪️ On 10/7, Musk defined the boundaries: "We will build and operate the fab," TSMC can only sublease
▪️ 14A mass production advanced from 2029 to 2028, version 0.9 of the kit to be delivered to customers this month
▪️ Q2 foundry revenue $5.765 billion, Q1 was $5.4 billion
▪️ Operating loss narrowed from $2.4 billion in Q1 to $2.1 billion
Terafab provides Intel with process technology, not capacity. Within the $55 billion, what it gets is "14A written into this plan," while building and operating the fab remains with Musk; TSMC's involvement is limited to subleasing the fab.
The timeline is another matter: In May, mass production was said to be in 2029; in July, it was changed to 2028, and version 0.9 of the kit is to be delivered this month. The earnings report was postponed from 10/22 to 10/29, and the conference call will need to address which quarter this process technology starts generating revenue.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK海力士Q3业绩有冲击利润新高的机会，AI需求+HBM4爬坡、存储涨价形成支撑，但变数在HBM4良率与交付进度。消费端存储依旧偏弱，叠加前期预期打得比较满，就算业绩亮眼，若四季度指引保守，也容易利好兑现。重点盯HBM出货和客户长协情况。$$This week's macro data and the Fed's October rate decision meeting are one of the three main themes. The logic is very simple: the consensus is generally that there will be no rate hike in October. The core focus is on Wash's speech regarding inflation views and how he explains the decision not to raise rates in October.
I personally expect Wash to say that pausing rate hikes in October is just to allow observation, while shifting the pressure to raise rates to December. It depends on how he describes the current inflation and energy price inflation, and this description will soon be tested.
Because after his speech early Thursday morning, the Q3 US GDP and September core PCE data will be released Thursday evening. If Wash still bases Fed policy on data, then Thursday's data could very likely push the probability of a December rate hike above 80%.
Secondly, the importance of September's PCE has diminished because September's CPI has already significantly increased market concerns about inflation. In contrast, the PCE rise is in line with expectations. The key is to see whether the inflation transmission to the consumer side is more severe than expected.
On the macro data side this week, once the probability of a December rate hike rises to 80%, the market will deeply price in the hike. Once it reaches 90%, it is basically locked in. Of course, it is not 100% without a chance for change. As long as subsequent data before the December meeting can prove that inflation pressure is easing, combined with Brent falling below $95, it could weaken the probability of a rate hike before the December meeting. However, at present, this is indeed quite difficult! #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 An abnormal situation about $WLFI that needs to be mentioned: The dYdX community is voting to shut down the batch of $WLFI markets, including ENA, ONDO, and others. Normally, such news should cause a crash, but surprisingly, it’s still up 1.3% in the last 24 hours, down only 2% in 7 days, and volume hasn’t increased. The price is 0.0538, stuck mid-level, fluctuating. My simple interpretation is — no one really cares about this market; whether it closes or not won’t stir any waves. Those who wanted to leave have already left; what’s left are just holders lying low. No volume, no story; the green and red are all fake. Anyone who truly cares should ask: if even the exchange doesn’t want to list this market anymore, who else do you expect to take over? I won’t treat it as an opportunity; this kind of half-dead market is the most frustrating.
$WLFI ETH long position is stuck, how to defend it this week?
Entered long at 2362, current price around 2327, slight floating loss. Honestly, this position is hard to hold:
• Fell about 12% in October, price is below the 20-day moving average at 2473 and 50-day moving average at 2546
• Spot ETF continues outflows, Glamsterdam testnet upgrade delayed, no catalysts within the year
• This week is macro-intensive: Federal Reserve (Beijing time 2 AM on the 29th), ECB, BoJ, and options expiration on the 30th
Only one key level to watch: 2220. Holding it means bottom consolidation; breaking it leads to next support around 1820.
My plan:
• Set stop loss at 2200, admit mistake if hit
• Possibly halve position before Fed
• Break even if it rebounds above 2400, consider adding if it climbs back above 2473
Do you think 2220 can hold? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议