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tvbee
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臣妾做不到啊——实在找不到CPI好起来的角度，今晚的CPI可能不乐观
#美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
第一，8~10月油价是上涨趋势，10月平均油价高。如图1
第二，10月底发布的10月消费信心指数，反弹了，消费强劲会从需求拉高物价。如图2
第三，之前非农数据，工资月率和年率都不低，收入涨势较高，这可能是消费信心强的原因之一。如图3
预期的综合CPI和核心CPI的年率分别是3.9%和2.8%都不低。但两个预期月率分别是0.3%和0.2%，个人感觉月率预期偏乐观。
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