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September 22, during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Trump will sit down with the leaders or foreign ministers of six countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, to discuss the next phase of the Iran conflict and the U.S. post-war strategy. This is the moment to open Schrödinger's box. But let me say this upfront: no one knows if the cat is dead or alive. Including Trump himself. So what to do? Lay out three scenarios in advance to ensure your positions can survive any of them. Scenario A: Restart negotiations / Situation eases Iran's conditions have already been presented—complete ceasefire, unfreezing funds, lifting the maritime blockade. If talks signal negotiation, oil prices will fall first. WTI is currently $93, Brent $98. When oil prices drop, inflation expectations cool down, easing rate hike pressure—risk assets catch a breather, BTC rebounds short-term. But don't get too happy too soon. The market has already partially priced in the possibility of easing. On Monday, BTC rebounded to $81,280, up about 4% in 24 hours. If easing really happens, the rebound might be far less than you imagine. Buy the rumor, sell the fact. The usual rule. Scenario B: Military escalation / War expansion This is the most painful scenario. The Houthi forces have already attacked Saudi Arabia—sensitive targets in Riyadh and Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were hit. Saudi Arabia urgently sought air defense help from France, the UK, Pakistan, and Egypt. U.S. embassies in multiple Middle Eastern countries have issued security alerts warning that military conflict could "escalate rapidly." The Iranian parliament speaker even directly stated: the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until conditions are met. If talks break down on September 22, or Trump chooses to take action again— oil prices will run wild. When oil prices surge, inflation expectations reignite, and Fed hawkish pressure intensifies. The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, with the market pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another hike this year. Rate hikes + soaring oil prices are a double blow to BTC. But here’s a twist— First down, then up. Looking back at 2026 data: since the conflict broke out at the end of February, BTC rose about 20%, outperforming Japanese and U.S. stocks and gold. Gold actually fell 10% during the same period. JPMorgan analysts bluntly said Bitcoin is replacing gold as a hedging tool. During war, funds first panic-sell all risk assets, then start looking for something "not belonging to any country." BTC happens to be that. The first wave is panic selling, the second wave is narrative-driven buying. Scenario C: Ambiguous ending / Continued tug-of-war This might be the most probable scenario. Trump said, "We hope we are nearing the end of the war," but the post-war plan will only be finalized after the midterm elections. What does this mean? September 22 might not provide any clear answers. No ceasefire announcement, no declaration of war. The tug-of-war continues. The rumors continue. The market keeps guessing. This is the most torturous state—crypto markets maintain high volatility and low direction. Like last week, BTC oscillated narrowly between $81,000 and $82,000, with a daily amplitude of 0.34%. No rise, no fall, just back and forth friction, wearing you down. Historical reference: what happened last time? On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran. Forty-four minutes after the conflict broke out, the total market cap of virtual currencies evaporated by about $70 billion. But that was just short-term panic. Looking longer term, BTC outperformed gold and major stock indices during the conflict. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer even said the market is re-evaluating Bitcoin's role as a "neutral settlement layer," and it "is no longer an option"—it has become a major market player. Short-term panic, long-term narrative. $BTC $BZ $CL #特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点