Postaus

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.01% on Sept 14, crossing 5% for the first time since Oct 2023 and reaching its highest intraday level since July 2007. It started the year near 4.15%. Nine months later, that is about +86bps. The pressure is not from one source: · Oil above $100 is keeping energy-driven inflation pressure alive · Headline CPI held at 3.4%, while core rose 0.3% MoM · Markets now price around 89%-90% odds of a 25bps Fed hike on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023 if delivered · Treasury supply remains heavy, while AI-driven corporate debt issuance is competing for capital · The NY Fed's ACM term premium model is back in positive territory, meaning investors are demanding extra return to hold long-duration paper · Markets are also pricing a possible BoJ hike to 1.25% this week, while the ECB remains hawkish The whole curve is repricing: 30-year yields are around 5.35%, while the 2-year sits near 4.66%. At 5% risk-free, the calculus shifts. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage benchmark is at 6.76%. Equity models run with a higher discount rate. Corporate borrowing costs rise. Capital that once had to chase yield now has a simpler alternative. The interesting part is BTC. Around $77K-$78K today, it is roughly flat while equities fell. Gold also pulled back. That divergence is worth watching, but it still needs confirmation. The real event risk is not just the yield print. It is Wednesday's updated dot plot. June's median dot implied one hike for 2026. If September shows two, or if Chair Warsh signals higher-for-longer at the press conference, the 5% handle could get stickier. Is 5% a temporary pressure point for BTC, or the start of a new macro ceiling? #US10YearYieldBreaks5%