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章若楠.
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 9月FOMC还没开，市场已经先把加息写进价格了吗？
OKX预言家上线9月FOMC利率决议预测，热榜冲到百万级浏览。与此同时，8月非农新增16.2万、失业率4.1%，就业并未明显失速。利率期货把加息概率推高，BTC却仍在8万美元附近震荡——这不是利多，而是资金在等“数据确认”。
我的判断偏空但不悲观：若9月11日CPI再超预期，收益率上行会先压估值，BTC失守8万后回踩空间打开；若CPI降温，市场会把“加息预期”当成靴子落地，反弹才有持续性。现在最危险的不是错过上涨，是把预测市场当成已经落地的政策。
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