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CRYPTO TRADER 001
This is why I’m not rushing to become bearish after the NFP reaction.
The 162K jobs figure came in stronger than expected, unemployment held at 4.1%, and September rate-hike expectations picked up again.
That clearly creates short-term pressure for $BTC and $ETH.
But one economic report doesn't determine the entire market cycle.
The real test comes next week.
PPI and CPI will give us a better read on inflation, while the FOMC could ultimately shape expectations around the path of rates.
If inflation remains sticky and Treasury yields continue climbing, the downside could extend.
For BTC, $78.6K is the level I’m watching closely.
For ETH, $2,428 and especially $2,400 are important areas of defense.
A decisive breakdown would make the bearish structure much more convincing.
But there’s another scenario.
If CPI cools meaningfully and traders start pricing renewed rate-cut expectations, today's NFP-driven weakness could be reversed surprisingly quickly.
So for now, I’m staying cautious rather than blindly bearish.
My expectation is choppy and potentially weak price action early next week, with CPI likely providing the bigger directional catalyst.
Until those major support levels fail, I see this as a correction under pressure not confirmation that the entire bull structure is finished.
Let the data come first. Then let price confirm.
$BTC $ETH
The NFP report may have shaken the market, but I think the bigger story starts next week.
Jobs came in stronger than expected at 162K, with unemployment at 4.1%. That’s enough to bring September rate-hike expectations back into focus and keep pressure on $BTC and $ETH.
But one jobs report doesn’t decide the entire trend.
Next week brings PPI, CPI, and eventually the FOMC. That combination could determine whether today’s weakness continues or gets completely reversed.
If inflation stays elevated and Treasury yields move higher, I’ll be watching $78.6K on BTC and $2,428–$2,400 on ETH.
Those levels matter because a clean breakdown would confirm that sellers are gaining real control.
But if CPI comes in softer and markets start pricing in renewed rate-cut expectations, today’s reaction could quickly become just another temporary shakeout.
So I’m not blindly bearish.
My expectation is weakness and volatility early next week, followed by a clearer directional move after CPI.
Until BTC loses $78.6K and ETH loses $2.4K, I’m treating this as a correction rather than a confirmed bear trend.
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