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Written before the PCE, tonight's PCE and crude oil prices must be viewed together. PCE represents past inflation, while crude oil represents future inflation. Currently, international crude oil is approaching $85. Once it falls below $85, it will directly impact the macro mainline; if it falls below $80, it will dominate the macro trend. Referring to the current crude oil trend, tonight's PCE meets expectations and will not have a significant impact on the market. If higher than expected, inflationary pressure increases, and the decline in crude oil prices offsets the negative impact, limiting the drop in risk assets, unless the PCE exceeds expectations by a large margin. If lower than expected, on the basis of easing inflationary pressure, combined with optimistic future inflation pressure, the bullish sentiment will be doubly positive. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径