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闪迪，周一还在大涨近9%的存储之王，周二直接暴跌9%。 SK海力士跌9.2%、希捷跌9.16%、西部数据跌7.43%、美光跌7.02%。存储五雄，一天之内集体蒸发。费城半导体指数单日暴跌4.98%。纳指跌1.33%，道指、标普全线收跌。周一还在庆祝闪迪投资者日画的大饼——营收中高双位数增长、80%毛利率、75%营业利润率。周二就被市场按在地上摩擦。到底发生了什么？第一层原因：美债收益率，杀回来了。 8月18日，美国30年期国债收益率盘中飙到5.33%，创2007年以来新高。全球长债利率集体飙升——日本10年期创三十年新高，德国法国30年期分别触及2011年和2008年以来最高。高利率，就是成长股的催命符。 AI硬件公司烧的是未来的钱。折现率一高，未来的利润在今天就不值钱了。存储股这种典型的“远期故事型资产”，首当其冲。这不是存储行业出了什么基本面问题。是钱变贵了。第二层原因：涨太多了，获利了结。闪迪今年以来涨了多少？年初到现在，涨了653%。美光涨了255%。SK海力士去年涨274%，今年5月市值一度突破1万亿美元。一家公司的基本面再好，当所有人都知道它好、并且已经按照“以后会更好”买进去之后——股价面临的标准就完全不一样了。业绩增长已经不够。它必须持续超过市场已经非常高的预期。公司没有变差，股票也可以跌。因为股票交易的是“现实与预期之间的差距”。闪迪周一刚涨完近9%，周二就跌9%——典型的短线获利了结。瑞穗分析师也说了，8月市场成交量偏低，程序交易可能放大了芯片股的跌势。第三层原因：市场开始重新算账了。存储芯片的基本面变了吗？没有。 TLC NAND闪存现货价格本周较上周上涨4.97%，较三周前累计涨了11.6%。AI服务器还在扩建，HBM仍然紧张。SK海力士预计2026年NAND市场需求同比增长15%-19%。花旗研究团队驳斥了“见顶”担忧，指出存储供应链库存处于极低水平——DRAM仅2-3周、NAND仅4-5周，远低于后周期7-9周的水平。基本面没崩。但市场对“AI需要借多少钱”这件事，开始重新算账了。美国银行甚至在同一天重申对美光的“买入”评级，目标价1550美元，较当时股价高约61%。美银认为，如果美光能维持类似闪迪的增长和利润率，其业务不应再被完全视为传统周期性存储业务。一边是机构在喊“低估”，一边是市场在砸盘。谁对谁错？所以，这是正常调整，还是行情降温？我的判断：短期是调整，中期是警告。短期来看，存储股这轮下跌有明确的技术面因素——美债收益率飙升+短线涨幅过大+获利了结。这些都不是基本面崩塌，更多是市场情绪的集中释放。但中期来看，信号不能忽视。存储周期已经进入 “后周期”阶段——PE很便宜、收入还在上修，但股价已经不涨甚至开始跌。 SK海力士动态PE只有3.6倍，三星4.3倍。PE倍数的压缩，正是市场提前计价了“周期即将见顶”的预期。存储芯片价格涨价的二阶导已经在下降——DRAM从Q2的+65%降至+17%，NAND从+60%降至+20%。涨价还在继续，但涨得没那么快了。市场对“AI资本开支、记忆体价格与高估值的容忍度，已经明显下降”。说句扎心的。闪迪今年涨了653%。就算跌了9%，今年依然涨了500%多。真正难受的不是持有闪迪的人。是涨到653%的时候冲进去的人。存储的基本面逻辑没变——AI需要存储，HBM供不应求，企业级SSD需求旺盛。但市场愿意为这个故事付多少钱，变了。美债收益率5.33%的时代，和收益率2%的时代，对远期利润的定价逻辑完全不同。你能接受一个PE只有3.6倍、但随时可能因为利率波动跌9%的股票吗？如果能，这是机会。如果不能，这是警告。 $SNDK $MU $SKHY #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧

Brent crude oil at $91. This is significantly lower than the $120 in 2022. But the diesel price downstairs at your house has already risen to $5.47 per gallon. Only 6% away from the historical peak. Aren't you asking: Oil prices haven't reached historic highs, so why is diesel almost breaking records? Because you are focusing on the wrong price. Most people only focus on crude oil. But what truly determines the direction of inflation is another figure—the cracking spread. What is the cracking price spread? Simply put: how much profit can a refinery make by turning a barrel of crude oil into diesel? Last year, the average was $24. This Monday, $102.2. Five times the normal level. In the past six trading days, five have set new historical records. Before this year, this figure had never exceeded $89. There was no time during the worst period of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Now, three-digit numbers. What does $102 mean? This means that for the same barrel of oil, the refinery's profit is five times the normal level. Who will pay for this? Truck drivers, farmers, couriers, heating providers—every end consumer. Diesel is not the number you see at a gas station. Diesel is: Every pound of vegetables delivered by truck to your table Every grain harvested by the harvester Every kilowatt-hour of electricity generated by factory machines is used Every degree of warmth in your home in winter Diesel prices are rising, not because you spend 50 yuan more on refueling. It's that everything is going up in price. Why is this happening? The triple impact crashed down at the same time. First: Russia. Ukrainian drones continue to attack Russian refineries, and Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports until January next year. Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of refined fuel—this pipeline has been cut. The second layer: the Middle East. The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire agreement expires on August 17, and Trump refused to extend it. Iran has said it will adopt a full-scale offensive strategy. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under blockade. On Monday, only six commodity ships passed through, below the 10-day average of 11, with no ultra-large tankers. Third: refining energy. According to data from the International Energy Agency, in July, global refinery crude oil processing averaged 80.9 million barrels per day, a sharp drop of 5 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year. There's no shortage of crude oil. What's lacking are factories that can turn crude oil into diesel. And what about U.S. inventory? As of August 7, distillate fuel stocks, including diesel and heating oil, stood at 107.1 million barrels—the lowest for the same period since 1996. The lowest in 30 years. What's the scariest thing now? The Northern Hemisphere is entering harvest season. Agricultural machinery's diesel consumption immediately surges. Then winter comes, and heating oil demand surges again. Then refineries enter seasonal maintenance, reducing capacity once more. With triple demand combined, the supply gap will only widen. What's even more painful is that diesel demand barely responds to prices. If gasoline is expensive, you can drive less. Is diesel expensive? Trucks can't stop, harvesters can't stop, factories can't stop. There is no alternative. Back to what we have in our hands. Once inflation expectations are ignited by diesel, U.S. Treasury yields will rise. The 10-year Treasury yield is heading toward 5%. Risk assets are under pressure. But on the other side— The US dollar index fell to 99.29 on Monday, a two-and-a-half-month low. The weakening US dollar is providing bottom support for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now around $64,000. On one side is inflation pushing yields higher, and on the other is support from a weaker dollar. BTC is stuck between two forces. To be honest in the end. Don't just look at WTI and Brent. Crude oil prices are sentiment. Cracking the price spread is the reality. A $91 oil price won't make your bowl of rice go up. A $102 crack spread will. This number has already made history. The question is—will it stop here, or continue upward? Goldman Sachs said the risk of diesel shortages before winter outweighs crude oil itself. Bank of America said the market has entered the strongest demand season with "almost no margin of error." Winter hasn't arrived yet. The harvest season has just begun. $BTC $BZ $CL