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$MU Don’t rush to bottom-fish. The uptrend may already be over. To put it simply: Micron appears to be entering the early stages of a downturn following a major cyclical peak. In this setup, rebounds may offer better opportunities to reduce risk or consider bearish trades rather than blindly chasing a bottom. The recent surge in MU was powered by rising memory prices, strong HBM demand, and AI-related optimism. But when earnings and margins reach extreme levels, the key question becomes: how much more upside can expectations realistically absorb? That’s the trap with cyclical stocks. Buying when earnings look spectacular can be dangerous because the market often starts pricing in the next slowdown before the financial results actually deteriorate. The memory market is still fundamentally driven by supply and demand. Earlier gains were supported by production cuts and tight supply. Now, major players including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are investing heavily to expand capacity and HBM production. As future supply comes online, the market may begin looking beyond the current shortage narrative toward the possibility of future oversupply. The price action is also worth watching. If volume expands during declines while rebounds happen on weaker volume, it can signal distribution rather than accumulation. After a stock has already tripled, profit-taking pressure can become significant if the bullish consensus starts to weaken. Technically, the structure has also deteriorated: short-term moving averages are turning lower, highs are stepping down, and the chart is beginning to resemble a descending channel. The consolidation around $860 could potentially become a continuation pattern if support fails. From a trading perspective, I wouldn’t chase a short after a sharp decline. A rebound toward the $880–$900 area could offer a more attractive risk/reward setup, with invalidation above $920. Key downside levels to watch would be around $780, followed by the $700–$720 zone if $780 breaks. #CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfraEarningsWatch