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Valuation doubles in half a year—what makes Polymarket worth 20 billion? Have you ever felt this way— Last year, you spent 50 yuan on Polymarket betting on the election results, just for fun. This year, their valuation is $20 billion, and they're chasing you for 1 billion. You're playing for entertainment, while others are printing money. Bloomberg just broke news: Polymarket is negotiating a new round of financing, planning to raise about $1 billion with a valuation target of over $20 billion. What does that mean? Last October, the valuation was $9 billion. In April this year, $15 billion. Now, over 20 billion. In less than a year, it more than doubled. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $600 million in March; Hedge fund D.E. Shaw and venture capital firm G Squared also followed suit in April. The sharpest people on Wall Street are voting with real money. But here's the question—why? What does Polymarket use to support a $20 billion valuation? Three numbers: First, revenue. By the end of June, Polymarket's annualized revenue had already "far exceeded $1 billion." By early August, this figure had surpassed $1.2 billion. Second, trading volume. Daily trading volume on U.S. platforms surged from about $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million within a month. Currently, daily trading volume in the US exceeds 100 million, and international platforms exceed 150 million. Third, traffic. In the past month, Polymarket's website received 43.1 million visits, surpassing the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi. 43.1 million monthly active users—this is already on par with mainstream financial apps. But behind the celebration, there are three things you need to see clearly. The first thing: burning cash for growth, but not profitable yet. Annualized revenue of 1.2 billion yuan sounds impressive. But a valuation of 20 billion yuan is 16 times revenue. What does that mean? This valuation is packed with expectations of "even bigger in the future." Once growth slows, valuations must be recalculated. The second thing: the opponent is stronger than it. Polymarket's biggest competitor Kalshi had already reached a valuation of $22 billion in May. Last month's trading volume was three times that of Polymarket. Kalshi is also considering another round of financing in the third quarter, targeting a valuation of 40 billion. Is Polymarket the leader? Kalshi is the one who runs faster. Moreover, Robinhood, Coinbase, and DraftKings have all joined the market. Robinhood has liquidated over 16 billion event contracts this year. The giants entered, and before the cake was even bigger, people were already lining up at the door. The third matter: the sword of regulation is always hanging in the air. The CFTC is conducting an "ongoing and extensive investigation" into Polymarket. Misleading marketing, fake transactions, and fabricated profits are involved. Polymarket said it has initiated an internal audit. But the regulatory sword, as long as it doesn't take root, valuations will be discounted day by day. To be honest— Polymarket went from 9 billion to 20 billion in just half a year. This is the speed that internet companies only had at their peak. But likewise, this is the most typical form of a bubble. Revenue growth tripled, traffic explosion was real, and Wall Street was eager to invest. But you need to think clearly: are you investing in a sector, or taking on a valuation? The prediction market track is indeed booming in 2026—just in the past few months, Kalshi and Polymarket have accumulated about $60 billion in trading volume, surpassing last year's total for the whole year. But in this track, who will ultimately survive? No one knows now. Finally, let me ask you— Do you usually play Polymarket to make money or have fun, or to test your judgment? If it's just for fun, whether it's 20 billion or 2 billion has nothing to do with you. But if you want to make money in this track— Don't focus on valuation, focus on transaction volume. Don't follow emotions, follow fluidity. Just because Wall Street is rushing to invest doesn't mean you should rush to buy. The platform is the one printing money, but retail investors are always the ones who pay the bill. $POL $BTC $ETH #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资, valuation exceeds $20 billion