#闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion
HBF just made a big move, so I actually think SanDisk will drop after the earnings report
Let's start with the conclusion:
I recognize the long-term value of HBF and am optimistic about this round of NAND price hikes.
But being optimistic about the company does not mean being optimistic about the stock price after the financial report.
SanDisk and SK Hynix have just announced their first HBF standard specifications.
High bandwidth, larger capacity, and direct AI inference—this story is truly sexy.
But the problem is:
HBF is still in the standardization and sample implementation stage, and its actual entry into AI devices is expected to wait until 2027.
What it contributes now is imagination, not profit for the quarter.
Tonight's earnings report still focuses on NAND price increases, data center SSD demand, and guidance for next quarter.
The market already knows too much about these positive factors.
Now, what everyone expects is no longer "exceeding the company's original guidelines," but rather:
✔ Revenue and EPS once again far exceeded the latest consensus expectations
✔ Gross margin continues to rise significantly
✔ The guidance for the next quarter has been revised upward again
✔ Management confirmed that price increases and shortages could continue
If either one is missing, no matter how impressive the financial report numbers are, they may be misunderstood as "not good enough."
So last quarter, SanDisk exceeded expectations significantly, and even after hours, it still fell for a while.
Because the market has never been about how much money you made in the past, but whether it can keep hitting the record high next quarter.
My judgment is:
There is a high probability that tonight's earnings will exceed the company's original guidance, and it may slightly beat Wall Street expectations.
But surpassing the already high expectations behind the stock price is much more difficult.
The most likely trend is:
The earnings numbers look very good, with a post-market rally;
After the market reviews gross margin and next quarter guidance, it starts to realize profits again, but then surges and pulls back.
So I'm not bearish on HBF, nor on SanDisk's long-term fundamentals.
I just think:
The long-term story is still improving, but the short-term positive news is already too crowded.
Sometimes, when the company drops after earnings reports, it's not because the company isn't good enough.
It's just that everyone anticipated it would be especially good. $SNDK$SKHY$MU
