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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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看来市场对于特朗普的信任感已经非常低了, 特朗普凌晨表态,与伊朗的谈判正在进行,且分为两个阶段,并且表示霍尔木兹海峡明天开放,但是能源价格并未下降,反而小幅度反弹 其实这里面包含两层因素: 1,市场对于特朗普的自说自话信任感极差,并且按照管理,特朗普每次大放厥词必然迎来伊朗的外交上的强硬反驳,市场反而走出提前反弹的量 2,目前美伊的主线不是在于美伊之间,所以特朗普所谓的先开海峡,后谈核协议被自然忽略,而市场的关注重点则是伊朗与阿曼的海峡共管协议。 其实这个协议的背后大家都很清楚,名义上的是阿曼,而背后其实代表的是美国以及其盟友体系的利益,所以阿曼与伊朗的协议达成,海峡问题自然会得到解决 而特朗普此时再谈海峡开放,显然不合时宜,甚至让原本稳定的计划混乱。 接下来,就要等到伊朗的外交反驳了,估计原油价格小幅度还是要反弹一下,目前关注重点还是盯伊朗与阿曼的情况 伊朗与阿曼协议未明确前,其实特朗普的话可以暂时忽略了!不然看的也头疼!#美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Many people say that Trump deliberately refuses to negotiate with Iran just to profit from high oil prices, but little do they know that the United States is a capitalist society, and the money earned does not necessarily go into Trump's pocket. However, high oil prices put tremendous political and public approval pressure on Trump. If Trump really wanted high oil prices, why would he call on energy companies to lower prices? The key issue is that high oil prices trigger domestic dissatisfaction; when people's lives are unhappy, support decreases, and this support rate directly affects the midterm elections. The midterm elections are Trump's last chance in office to purge the Democratic Party and the Republican establishment, so they are very important for the second half of his term. Actually, speaking frankly, businessmen pursuing profit, even profiting from national crises, is not uncommon in the U.S., and this is not the first time such a thing has happened. Many may have overlooked an event: early in this year's U.S.-Iran conflict, Trump called a meeting with American energy giants to discuss expanding capital expenditure to increase U.S. crude oil production capacity. But several energy companies directly refused, citing the need to maintain cash flow. Obviously, the old capital is not afraid of this "transient American president." They weren't afraid then; are they really afraid of the current threat to lower prices? Instead of accusing Trump of "incompetence," it would be better to study how to solve the Iran issue. When international oil prices return to normal, domestic oil prices in the U.S. will naturally drop significantly. Of course, this option is not easy; Trump is somewhat "caught between a rock and a hard place"! #美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐

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