المنشور

Buybacks sound bullish on paper. The math says otherwise. It’s not about the buyback headline. It’s about unlocks vs burns over the next 12 months. Supply INCREASERS $KAITO +99.9% — ∼241M unlocks, buybacks paused. Classic low-float trap. $HYPE +47.1% — biggest buyback in crypto at ∼14M/yr, but ∼119M unlocks crush it. $ASTER +23.7% — “198% program” sends buys to stakers. Burns dead since May. $PUMP +14.2% — ∼26B burned, ∼82B unlocked. $AAVE +2.9% — revenue buys held, not burned. $PENDLE +2.7% — revenue goes to holders, not burns. Near flat $BGB +0.4%, $JUP 0.0%, $OKB 0.0% — stable, not deflationary. True supply DECREASERS — only 2 $BNB -4.5% — auto quarterly burns, zero unlocks left. Relentless. $RAY -6.8% — quietly buying and burning 12% of fees since 2022. Most “buyback narratives” are just dilution with better PR. Only $BNB and $RAY are actually shrinking supply. Chase the math, not the story. #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges @OKX Orbit