المنشور

Fed Holds Today But the September Story Just Got Real The FOMC decision drops today at 2:00 PM ET, and the base case is a hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Nothing shocking there. The real story is what's building underneath. Fed funds futures now price roughly an 80% chance of at least a 25bp hike by the September meeting up sharply from around 53% just a week ago. Oil crossing $100/barrel and inflation sitting stubbornly above the 2% target are doing the heavy lifting here. Here's the chain worth watching: 1️⃣ Fed holds today → no immediate shock, but the statement tone matters more than the decision itself 2️⃣ If the language leans hawkish, expect Treasury yields to push higher into August 3️⃣ Rising yields = tighter financial conditions = risk assets (crypto included) start pricing in a tougher H2 4️⃣ September becomes the real event not July This isn't a cutting cycle anymore. It's a "will they hike again" cycle. That's a meaningful regime shift for how crypto has traded the Fed all year. Worth watching closely: DXY reaction, 10Y yield direction post-statement, and how BTC dominance behaves if liquidity conditions tighten further. Not financial advice, just mapping out the macro chain that matters for the next 6-8 weeks. #FedMinutesHawkish #FOMCRateWatch