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Katie_OKX
#FedOfficialsDebateHikes The Fed just delivered a 25bp hike, and the debate has already moved to whether October brings another one 🏛️
CME pricing puts the probability of an additional 25bp increase at roughly 54.2%, which feels more like a coin toss than a clear consensus. Fed officials sound divided too. Barkin noted that over 60% of PCE components are still rising above 3% YoY, Collins warned that inflation may remain above target, and Musalem said further tightening could be necessary.
What stands out to me is that economic and employment resilience now cuts both ways. It reduces immediate recession concerns, but it also gives the Fed more room to remain restrictive.
The next decision probably won’t come down to one headline number. I’ll be watching whether inflation stays broad—and whether the labor market finally begins to soften 🔍
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