Innlegg

Friday's jobs report could reset the odds of a September Fed hike. The latest data set the stage. August ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 from 55.6, while July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M. Factory growth is slowing, while price pressure remains elevated: prices paid held at 71.1, WTI closed above $90, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.78%. Here's where things stand: · CME FedWatch puts September hike odds around two-thirds, up from roughly one-third before Jackson Hole · August NFP consensus is near +55K, though some estimates are closer to +65K, after July's -23K print · Unemployment is expected near 4.2%, with annual wage growth seen cooling toward 3.0% The headline alone will not settle it. The last report revised May and June payrolls down by a combined 103K, while July's lower unemployment rate coincided with 264K people leaving the labor force. Revisions and participation may matter as much as the print. Friday is only the first checkpoint. August CPI lands Sep 11, followed by the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting and a fresh dot plot. Crypto is caught in the middle. BTC entered September near $78K after gaining about 25% in August and has held most of that rebound even as gold pulled back. ETF flows are split: · US spot BTC ETFs posted a $236.5M net outflow on Sep 1 · US spot Ether ETFs extended their inflow streak to 12 sessions, with the run totaling about $1.60B A strong jobs report would reinforce the case for a September hike. A weak one could pull the odds back, but CPI remains the final major checkpoint before the Fed decides. Which matters more for BTC over the next two weeks: jobs, inflation, or ETF flows? #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds